The distribution of all home run hitters in MLB history

Here’s a relatively simple plot showing the percentage of all 18,690 MLB players in history to hit “X” home runs. In other words, about 33% of all players hit at least 1 homer, about 29% hit at least 2 homers, etc. Some other key numbers: 19% hit at least 10, 4.4% hit at least 100, and 0.16% have hit at least 500.

thismanyHR

It’s unsurprising that the curve is linear for the middle section–with around 3,000 players to hit 10+ homers, we see a smooth and expected distribution with so many data points. I assume the lower end of the curve at 1 and 2 homers falls off because there is an unusually high number of players to hit very few homers. This includes lots of pitchers and other players who had only a cup of coffee and managed only a dinger or two. The high end of the curve fails to fall off linearly I assume because players who hit a fair number of homers tend to be the ones who are selected to stick around in MLB and therefore hit even more. The hitting of homers isn’t simply a random event distributed over the entire population–certain players are selected to remain in MLB, and the longer a guy sticks around, the more likely it is that he hits homers at an above-average pace.

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Brendan Bingham
Brendan Bingham
7 years ago

Doug: This is great! There’s nothing more elegant than taking a large, complex phenomenon and finding the simplest form in which to portray it. Well done. The non-linearity of the curve might be due in part to heterogeneity in historical frequency of home runs hit. Players today hit far more homers than players in the Dead Ball era. Just a guess, but if you were to break down the more than 18,000 players into 2 or 3 historical groups, perhaps what you would see is a set of linear curves whose offset reflects the difference in home run environment in… Read more »

Brendan Bingham
Brendan Bingham
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Apologies… I’m too used to Doug doing most of the posting here.
Again, very nice work!

yippeeyappee
yippeeyappee
7 years ago

So 67% of all MLB players fail to hit a single homer. I know that most of these will be pitchers but, still, a little higher than I would have guessed. Perhaps the number was a little lower, pre-1974, when all pitchers had to bat?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

There are 3982 retired players who participated in 10 or fewer games. Only 61 of them have homered.

Doug
Doug
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

The most career games by a non-pitcher with zero home runs is 622 by Mick Kelleher, an infielder with several clubs from 1972 to 1982. Most career PA are 2073 by Tom Oliver, Red Sox center-fielder from 1930 to 1933. Oliver and another 1930s Boston center-fielder (Doc Cramer) share the distinction of being the only players to post consecutive 30 double seasons with zero home runs. Over a ten year period (1930-39), there were only 19 games in which the starting Boston center-fielder hit a home run, three of those coming in the span of two days when Roy Johnson… Read more »

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

I was hoping Reggie Willits would have a longer career, but his on-base skills eroded after his rookie year. He was never going to hit a HR unless a sudden hurricane took the ball over the fence. (Of course, he could have gotten an inside-the-park job, but that would be less likely as he aged)

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

True, banjo-hitting speedy outfielders are a dime a dozen in every generation (Nook Logan was another recent one I remember pretty vividly for some reason – I guess I watched way too many Indians-Tigers games in the mid 00’s), but Willits seemed to have less power in his bat than any player I’ve ever seen get more than a few PA’s at the big league level. But given enough PA’s, he probably would have lucked into one. He had a few in the minors, so if someone hung him the right pitch he’d have been able to get one just… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

The smallest real player of the 1950s, Bobby Shantz, cranked one out, and believe me, he looked like a boy among men out on the field.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

More evidence to your point, CC – HOFer Johnny Evers was 5′ 9″”, 125 lbs, and had 20 career HRS. 8 of these 20 are listed as the inside-the-park variety. I’m assuming the other 12 either bounced into the stands (counted as a HR at times till 1931), or were yanked right down a short foul line (like the ‘Pesky Pole’).

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Meanwhile Freddie Patek, who’s listed at only 5’5, 148 pounds somehow managed to hit 41 career home runs. This, despite the fact that he played in a low home run era and mostly in pitcher’s parks (26 of his career home runs were on the road).

And he also managed a 3 home run game:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS198006200.shtml

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Since 1901 there have been a total of 18 players 65″ or shorter to have hit at least 1 HR. As mentioned Freddie Patek has the most, 41, followed by Albie Pearson, Topsy Hartsel and Rabbit Maranville with 28 each. Only 3 of the 18 have played after 1950.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
7 years ago

Some OT musings: According to Jayson Stark, this is the first time since 1884 that two teams have started out the season 0-9. I checked on BB-Ref to confirm that (I saw it in passing in a tweet on ESPN). Those teams were the Detroit Wolverines of the NL and the Altoona Mountain City club of the UA. They both started the season 0-11. But the UA was a Mickey Mouse league, and the Altoona club only ended up playing 25 games; they folded at the end of May. So this might be the first time that two teams in… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago

Indians pulled off a rare feat today, becoming just the 5th team to score 6 or fewer runs while having 3 or more home runs and 5 or more stolen bases (9 inning games only). What makes today’s “accomplishment” particularly odd is that the Indians had far more baserunners than the other teams to pull off this feat. In fact, it’s fairly remarkable if you think about it. The Indians had 9 singles, 1 double, 3 home runs, 7 walks, 2 reached on errors, 5 stolen bases, 0 caught stealing, only 1 GIDP, and yet somehow only managed to score… Read more »

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
7 years ago

So Stark’s tweet was wrong – in 1988, the Braves started out 0-10, and the Orioles had their infamous 0-21 start to the season.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
7 years ago

Amazing he would miss it, C.C.

Really liked your post on Velasquez and Garcia. I noticed those game scores when MLB posted them, but didn’t realize how rare the combination was.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

This is a test.

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
7 years ago

No religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.

So you can believe in transubstantiation, or not, and still serve in Congress. (Canada before 1867 had such a test)

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

I have made several attempts to post this. It is off-topic but it is about HRs. Someone posted on Twitter that A-Rod had never homered in his team’s 8th game of a season. He challenged readers to determine 3 other team seasonal games in which he never homered. I came up with the answers but could not post them because I was unable to retrieve the original post. Rather than let my effort go to waste I decided to post the answers here. He never homered in his teams 60th, 105th and 119th games.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
7 years ago

The real test, Richard, is whether you will remember to update this piece of tangentia at the three remaining relevant points of the season. If you pass the test, I will tip my hat to you, although, for reasons of etiquette, I do not often wear a hat when I’m online, and agree to support your appointment to an office of public trust — so long as court precedents assure that baseball is not a religious pursuit.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

A wink of the eye will be just as good as a tip of the hat.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

Given that we are in a temporary lull in comments I decided to post this list. I have taken it upon myself to do a little research and determine which players have the highest percentages of runners driven in (RDI). I used the BR PI Split Finder for players with 6205+ PA covering the searchable years right through the end of the 2014 season. Included are players with complete careers after 1973 and a handful of players whose careers began prior to 1973. Here are the players with the highest percentage of career RDI. PAs in which a player received… Read more »

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
7 years ago

Not sure about everybody else, but Keith Hernandez is a big surprise to me. Nevet thought of him as a big RBI guy – he does have a good clutch reputation, though. Ignoring walks except in bases loaded situations obviously helps Bobby Abreu, but still, that number would shock a lot of sports writers who tagged Abreu as a ‘non-run producer.’ The rest of the list is mostly guys you’d expect – most of the best hitters from the high offense 90s and early 00s (Bonds, Thomas, Pujols, Ramirez, Bagwell, McGwire, Berkman, Delgado), guys who were known for being big… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

I double-checked Abreu’s percentage by going straight to his career split page and got the same number.

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago

R.C.

At first I thought the most common factor of those listed was home run power, but it doesn’t apply to Hernandez, plus there’s the fact that a few others, like Brett and Abreu, had only middling HR power. What they all do have—except for McGuire—is high BAs for the bulk of their careers, so it seems to me that McGuire is the outlier, but that is made up for by the fact that his home run percentage is so extreme, 9.423, vs. his nearest competitor, some guy named Ruth, at 8.501.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

I should have mentioned I ignored HBP in addition to BB.

David P
David P
7 years ago

Richard –

Does the RDI number include the batter himself when he hits a home run? Or did you subtract home runs out as well?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago
Reply to  David P

The RDI number does not include the batter when he hits a HR.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

If anyone makes a request I can post the entire list of the 297 players.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
7 years ago

Would be interesting to see the bottom 10 or so for sure. I’m assuming it’s mostly going to be middle infielders or catchers with no power.

I’ll put myself out there a bit and guess that, among the modern guys with 6205+ PA’s, last place is Alfredo Griffin. I say that based purely on his awful career Rbat (and every other offensive stat, really), without looking at his splits.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

Here’s the bottom 11. Alfredo Griffin was not a bad guess.

0.132 ….. Manny Trillo
0.132 ….. Luis Aparicio
0.130 ….. Aurelio Rodriguez
0.129 ….. Bill Russell
0.129 ….. Bert Campaneris
0.129 ….. Alfredo Griffin
0.126 ….. Paul Blair
0.125 ….. Luis Castillo
0.118 ….. Ed Brinkman
0.105 ….. Larry Bowa
0.105 ….. Mark Belanger

Brendan Bingham
Brendan Bingham
7 years ago

This list includes 12 seasons worth of Baltimore starting CF in Paul Blair and nearly two decades of their starting SS in Aparicio and Belanger. Those Orioles teams were built on pitching and defense, but most seasons they also managed to score runs at or above league average, despite having players who were definitely not “RBI guys.”