The weird and the wonderful: a quick early season review

Two weeks into the new season and the clubs with the longest current winning streaks are the Braves and Twins. Which is interesting because both those clubs lost their first 9 games, only the second time since 1913 that two teams have stumbled so badly out of the gate.

More quirky tidbits from the young season are after the jump.

The first time that there were two 0-9 clubs was in 1988 when the Orioles (who started 0-21) and Braves both topped 105 losses. Their longest winning streaks of that season were 4 and 3 games respectively, which is where this year’s Twins and Braves are at right now. Only the 1983 Astros have started 0-9 and turned in a winning season; every other live ball era 0-9 team lost at least 90 games, including the two highest post-1901 loss totals of the 1962 Mets (120) and 2003 Tigers (119).

The Padres are another team that has started the year slowly, being shut out 5 times in their first 10 games, the first team to do so since at least 1913. At the other end of the spectrum are the Rockies (7 games with 6+ runs) and Cardinals (6 games with 7+ runs).

Five teams (Royals, Cubs, Orioles, Nationals, White Sox) and maybe a sixth (Tigers) have won at least two-thirds of their first 12 games to start this season. That may be a good omen for those clubs as more than 35% (166 of 467) of teams that started 8-4 or better since 1913 went on to make the playoffs (slightly better than the exactly one-third of teams that currently qualify for the post-season). That proportion rises to 40% (104 of 260) of such teams since 1969, and 47% (59 of 125) since division series began in 1995.

For the White Sox, this is their first 8-4 start since their world championship season in 2005. The Nationals also started 8-4 that year, and were 9-3 in 2012 en route to 98 wins and the NL East crown. The Royals have started 8-4 in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. Starting fast back-to-back is something the Orioles have done with some regularity:  in 2004-05 (finished below .500 both times); in 1996-98 (won AL East crown in the middle season); and in 1969-71 (won AL pennant all three times).

Looking at the NL’s offensive leaders:

  • Washington’s fast start is due in part to Bryce Harper‘s majors-leading 1.296 OPS. Harper is picking up where he left off, after posting a .349/.473/.691 slash over his last 125 games of last season, a span in which he scored 100 runs and drove in 47 of his teammates, representing almost 25% of Washington’s runs over that period.
  • A new Nat has also helped as Daniel Murphy has picked up where he left off last post-season with a majors-leading .415 BA. In his last 42 games including playoffs, Murphy has blasted 13 home runs, matching his season high prior to 2015.
  • While Trevor Story‘s historic home run streak to start his career has been perhaps this season’s biggest story (pun definitely intended), his Colorado teammate Nolan Arenado has been no slouch, leading the NL in WAR and RBI while cranking 6 home runs (tied with Bryce Harper and trailing only you-know-who). Perhaps most remarkable about Arenado’s start is his strikeouts, numbering only four to match Harper’s total through 12 games. Quiz: before Arenado, who was the last player with 5 or more home runs and fewer than 5 strikeouts through his team’s first 13 games of a season?
  • Atlanta’s slow start didn’t slow down Nick Markakis whose 9 doubles are three more than any other player. That total ties the NL record for the first 12 team games of the season, previously achieved by Billy Herman (1936) and Ray Lankford (1995).
  • The Cubs have been led by Dexter Fowler‘s majors-leading 18 runs created from a nifty .500 OBP, second only to the Marlins’ Christian Yelich‘s mark of .510 (waiting until spring training before re-signing Fowler evidently got his attention).
  • Speaking of Yelich, the Marlins’ fab outfield of he, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton are all healthy this season, relegating 42 year-old Ichiro Suzuki to the bench with only 11 PA in the Marlins 11 games (he had 438 PA last season). While that rate of appearances will likely leave Ichiro a touch short of the 61 more hits he needs to reach 3000, it’s a long season and I suspect a way will be found to help the Wizard reach his goal.

And the AL’s best pitching starts:

  • Jordan Zimmerman hasn’t allowed a run in two starts for the Tigers. He’s the first pitcher to start his Tiger career that way, and only the third Tiger (and first in almost 75 years) to win two such games from the beginning of a season.
  • Another pitcher with two wins and no runs allowed is the A’s John Axford, who led the NL with 46 saves in 2011 but hasn’t approached that form since then. Axford’s 7 scoreless appearances is his career long to start a season.
  • Matt Latos played for 3 teams last season, and posted ERA+ below 90 for all of them. He’s looking a lot better this year with just one run allowed in two winning starts for the White Sox.
  • Latos isn’t the only Sox pitcher having a hot start. Chris Sale‘s 3 wins tops the AL and gives Chicago three pitchers with 3 W’s (counting Jake Arrieta and  John Lackey of the Cubs).
  • Kansas City had a rotation spot to fill after Johnny Cueto signed with the Giants. Enter Ian Kennedy whose 21-4 record for the 2011 D-Backs stands in stark relief to the middling results of the rest of his career. Returning to the AL for the first time since 2009, Kennedy has a pair of W’s to his credit and leads the junior circuit with a 0.732 WHIP.
  • Mike Fiers has started 3 games for the Astros and allowed just a single walk, good for the AL’s best BB/9 ratio. That start matches the one Scott Feldman made last season but, prior to last year, only two other Houston pitchers had allowed no more than one walk over their first three starts within the team’s first 15 games of a season.
  • Felix Hernandez had his personal 8 game opening day unbeaten streak snapped when some shoddy defense cost the King in a 3-2 loss to the Rangers. But, three starts allowing 5 hits or less gives Hernandez a 4.5 H/9 ratio, tied with Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez for the AL’s top mark.

So, which players have caught your eye this young season?

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Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
7 years ago

Trivia: 2004 Barry Bonds had 8 HR and 4 SO through 13 games, so I’m going to guess that it was him.

Also, Doug, this was just a marvelous summary of the season to date. For my part, I’ve been pretty impressed with my Brewers. To have them only two games shy of .500 is better than I would’ve hoped at this point in the year. I don’t think they’re very GOOD, but I’ll take “lucky” for now!

Doug
Doug
7 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

There’s someone more recent than Bonds. Later in his career, he enjoyed notoriety for his October exploits.

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I was thinking it might be Pujols but it looks like he just misses out. He has two seasons of 4/4 and another of 9/5.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Is it Raul Ibanez? Not the first guy that would come to mind if you’re trying to come up with a high HR/low K guy, but he certainly fits the mold of a guy with late career postseason heroics.

David P
David P
7 years ago

Great stuff Doug! I’ll give a shout out to one of my favorite Indians, Jose Ramirez. For those not familiar with Ramirez, he received a brief cup of coffee at the end of 2013 at age 20. In 2014, he replaced Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop, after the Indians traded him midseason. Ramirez more than held his own at age 21, putting up an 81 OPS+ in 266 PAs. In 2015, he started the season as the Indians regular shortstop and was dreadful, putting up a .478 OPS in 173 PAs. Sent back down for more seasoning, he was eventually called… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago

I’m thinking it might be a short Story in the long run. He’s on a course for 300 Ks as well as 94 HRs, and I’d project that he’ll come far closer to the second than the first. Just three walks so far, too, and his fielding at short is yet another story.

Phenom or flash in the pan—anyone care to opine?

David P
David P
7 years ago

I think Story will stick around at least partially because Coors will inflate his offensive numbers. But I doubt the home runs will last since he never hit more than 20 in the minors.

yippeeyappee
yippeeyappee
7 years ago

IN 22 PA, Justin Smoak has yet to put the ball in play for an out. 2H, 12K, 7BB, 1HBP. Now if those hits were home runs instead of singles, he’d be the ultimate 3 true outcome guy.

And wouldn’t HBP make it “four” true outcomes?

Doug
Doug
7 years ago

Bryce Harper is the 18th player since at least 1973 with two grand slams in the month of April. P-I’s Event Finder shows no April double grannies prior to 1991, based on complete data back to 1973 and almost complete data back to 1950. – 1991: Andre Dawson – 1996: Darrin Fletcher, Shane Andrews, David Segui – 1998: Mike Piazza (3), Derrek Lee – 1999: Ken Griffey, Fernando Tatis – 2001: Carl Everett – 2002: David Eckstein – 2004: Brandon Inge – 2005: Michael Tucker, Juan Encarnacion – 2006: Kevin Mench – 2008: Joe Crede – 2009: Albert Pujols –… Read more »

yippeeyappee
yippeeyappee
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I’m sure most remember that Fernando Tatis had both of his slams in the same inning.

Hartvig
Hartvig
7 years ago

“relegating 42 year-old Ichiro Suzuki to the bench with only 11 PA in the Marlins 11 games (he had 438 PA last season). While that rate of appearances will likely leave Ichiro a touch short of the 61 more hits he needs to reach 3000, it’s a long season and I suspect a way will be found to help the Wizard reach his goal.” Assuming Ichiro maintains at least roughly his career walk rate he would need to bat .400 (give or take) given his current 1PA/game rate. Which would be .055 points lower than he’s currently batting. Of course… Read more »