Dr. Doom here (via Doug), back for more MVP re-voting!
If your jam was 1970s baseball… well, I’m sorry that we were only there one year. It’s not that the ’70s didn’t have their share of interesting MVP races. They certainly did! What they didn’t necessarily have was the years I was looking for: the ones with multiple good candidates, any of whom could be called the MVP.
Thankfully, if you’re a fan of ’70s baseball, you’re probably also a fan of ’80s baseball. And if you are, boy oh boy are you in for a good few posts. This is the first of SEVEN posts in which we’ll be examining 1980s baseball.
I’ve never been shy about being a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have won four MVP awards – probably more than you’d think of for a rather moribund franchise, seeing as they’ve won only one pennant and no World Series. But of the four MVP awards, only one (Robin Yount in 1982, having the best shortstop season since Honus Wagner) is looked on historically as being without controversy. The other three are all open for debate. We’ll only cover this one in this series, though the other two are interesting, too, in my opinion.
1981 was the year of the first players’ strike (other than the mini-strike in 1972), and the one that split the season into two “halves.” This was, quite possibly, the dumbest idea in history. In order to make the second “half” count, it was decided that the teams with the best record in the first half would already be credited with winning the division. Then, every team had a shot at the postseason, if only they were to win their division in the second half. Oakland, the AL West winner in the first half, had the best record in the AL (64-45). Milwaukee, the AL East winner in the second half, had the second best record (62-47). So their presence in the postseason made perfect sense. However, the Royals made the postseason by finishing 4th in the AL West (by virtue of the second half AL West crown), and the Yankees also finished 4th in the East, but had already “won” the division in the first half. This mess, however, doesn’t even begin to cover the mess that was the NL. While that’s not our focus here, it’s just worth describing for poops and giggles. The Phillies won the East in the first half, while the Expos won it in the second. In the West, the Dodgers won the first half and the Astros the second. While there were no fourth-place teams making the playoffs in the NL, the Cardinals actually had the best record in the East and didn’t make the playoffs! “Surely,” you’re thinking, “that must be the worst of it.” But it’s not. Because the West’s best record, the NL’s best record, and in fact the best record in baseball belonged to Cincinnati, who also didn’t make the playoffs, because they played one game less than the Dodgers in the first half! That’s right – the eventual “World Champion” Dodgers went 36-21 in the first half, while the Reds had gone 35-21. The Reds therefore “finished” half a game out, but with a better record! This season was a mess, and should be stricken from everyone’s memory. Alas, the bizarre nature of 1981 was not limited to who made the playoffs. The individual awards were weird, too, particularly in the AL, where a 78 inning pitcher took home both major awards.
Rollie Fingers had a nice narrative going for him, and it should sound familiar from the last couple of posts. Milwaukee had been a team on the edge. They had won 93 games in 1978, but the Yankees won 100 and the Red Sox 99 (that extra win for New York courtesy of Bucky Dent in a one game division playoff), so the Brewers were left out. Milwaukee was even better in 1979, winning 95 – but the Orioles won 102. Then in 1980, they seemed to take a step back, but still won 86 games, enough to win a weak division. But the AL East was not a weak division as the Yankees won 103, and the Orioles won 100, so third place would again be the Brewers’ roost. Before the 1981 season, the Cardinals made one of the worst trades in the history of baseball (although I’ve never seen it on any of those lists of historically bad trades, I assure you, it belongs). St. Louis owned Fingers for only four days, acquiring him from the Padres on December 8th, but flipping him on the 12th with Ted Simmons and future (and infamously bad) Cy Young winner Pete Vuckovich for… basically Sixto Lezcano, who would go on to play one poor half-season as a Cardinal.
Fingers, already a five-time All-Star before joining the Brewers, had been a key piece of the A’s 1970s dynasty. Now, he was attached to a young team that was on the brink… and had suddenly burst through with the AL’s second-best record, and the franchise’s first playoff appearance in its 13th year of operation (12th in Milwaukee). Fingers, to his credit, was remarkably stingy in 1981. He went 6-3, saving 28 in 47 appearances (34 save opportunities) and 78 innings. He also had an ERA of only 1.04 (9 runs allowed all season!) and a shocking 0.872 WHIP. Had he qualified for the ERA title (he wasn’t particularly close to the 109 qualifying innings that would’ve been needed for a Brewer in this strike year), it would’ve been the lowest ERA since Dutch Leonard in 1914. This was the “batters against” line for Fingers in 1981: .198/.235/.277. Yikes.
Of course, still – 78 innings. And was he even the best player on his own team? Robin Yount was perhaps the best SS in baseball, and had a .273/.312/.419 slash, with 50 R, 49 RBI, and 10 HR (74, 73, and 15, prorated* to a full season; I’ll add the prorated numbers right after the actuals from now on, so you can tell what’s going on). Cecil Cooper had the 3rd-best batting average in the AL, hitting .320/.363/.495, his OPS placing 6th in the AL. He added 70 RBI (104), 60 R (89), 12 HR (18) and a league-leading 35 2B (52).
*”Prorated” in this case means that I took 162/(# of team games) * (stat). I realize that this is not the best way to figure out “pace,” but we’re not looking for “pace” here – we’re just trying to figure out how to translate these numbers so they don’t look so weird.
One of the intricacies of the strike-shortened season is that “league-leader” is a really bizarre category. And there was a four-way tie for the HR crown with 22, with each player having a career year. Alphabetically, the first was Tony Armas. Armas slashed .261/.294/.480 for the A’s, the team with the AL’s best record. To go with his 22 HR (33), Armas recorded 76 RBI (113; 2nd in the AL) and 51 R (76). Next of the 22-HR crowd was Dwight Evans who added 71 RBI (107), 3rd in the league, and 84 R (126), second in the AL. His 85 BB put him on pace for 128 free passes, a number seen only twice in the AL in over 20 years. Evans’s slash line of .296/.415/.522 placed him 16th, 2nd, and 3rd, respectively, in each of those categories, with his .937 OPS the top mark in the AL. Third of the four with 22 HR (32) was Bobby Grich, who slashed .304/.378/.543, the last of which led the league. His 56 R (82) and 61 RBI (90) were both outside the top 10, but his .921 OPS was second in the league – and that doesn’t depend on your teammates. The final HR champ for the AL in 1981 was Steady Eddie Murray. Murray also led the league with 78 RBI (120), scored 57 R (88), and slashed .294/.360/.534, the last of which was second in the AL (and his .895 OPS was third).
One other player to highlight would be MVP runner-up Rickey Henderson. Henderson posted a slash line of .319/.408/.437, good for the ninth best OPS in the AL, but also finishing fourth in average and third in OBP. Henderson had only 35 RBI (52), which doesn’t compare to the others, but isn’t too shabby for a leadoff hitter. He also walked 64 times (95), which was fourth in the league. But he led the league in two very important categories. First was R, where Henderson scored 89 (132), a prorated total that only one American Leaguer since 1950 (Willie Wilson with 133 the season before) had surpassed. The Man of Steal’s other league-leading total was, unsurprisingly, SB, with 56 (83).
I feel like I should add one starting pitcher, but the pitching wasn’t honestly that spectacular in ’81. I’ll go with Henderson’s teammate, Steve McCatty. McCatty had his best season BY FAR in 1981, going from workman-like starter to AL ace. It only lasted one year (one-ninth of his career), as he came back to earth in ’82. But in the strike season, McCatty was league leader with 14 W (21), 4 SHO (6) and a 2.33 ERA, while logging an impressive 185.2 IP (275), fourth in the junior circuit.
So, is it one of these guys? With the strike-shortened season, it’s really hard to say if these are even the right candidates, so this one may require a bit more research than usual. On the other hand, I think we’re getting to the years that more and more of our voters remember, so maybe it won’t take as much work as I think (we’re still before I was born here, so I rely on the rest of you for insight). Best of luck!
DIRECTIONS: Please list 5-10 players on your MVP ballot (ballots with fewer than 5 candidates will be thrown out). Ballots will be scored as per BBWAA scoring (14-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1). Strategic voting is discouraged, though unenforceable, so please just don’t do it, as the goal here is to (somewhat) mimic the BBWAA process. The post will be live for about a week; please discuss and vote whenever you’d like, but there will be no vote changes, so don’t vote until you’re sure you’re ready!
Doom:
Another abomination of the ’81 season is that teams played all kinds of weird schedules: The Royals played only 2 games against the White Sox in their own division, but 12 against the Yankees in the East. They had 47 home contests and 56 away.
All teams were similarly “scheduled,” meaning that seasonal performances by a team and its players have a questionable validity when compared to the seasonal performances of other teams and players.
A mess.
Kinda like college football conf champs with unbalance schedules.
1. Rickey (led in R, H, SB, with 22 Rfield)
2. Bobby Grich (2nd sacker leading league in SLG)
3. Cecil Cooper
4. Dwight Evans (OPS)
5. Mike Hargrove (.424 OBP and 16 SO)
6. Carney Lansford (batted .363 at home – in Oakland!)
7. Eddie Murray
8. Ron Guidry (WHIP leader)
9. Dave Winfield (had a really good May)
10. Tom Paciorek
I wonder if Tom Paciorek is the most unlikely person to ever finish in the top 10 of an MVP vote. Through age 33, he had a grand total of 2,197 PAs and 1.4 WAR. Then, at age 34, he turns in a 4.3 WAR season (in only 104 games) and finishes 10th in the MVP vote.
Lansford was still in Boston. He hit .222 in six games in Oakland.
Oops. Not sure how I missed that detail on Carney. .363 at Fenway isnt as impressive. I hope my 6th place vote isn’t some kind of tie breaker.
________________
1. Evans
2. Henderson
3. Grich
4. Yount
5. Bell
6. Trammell
7. McCatty
8. Murphy
9. Murray
10. Fingers
I hope you keep this open for a while beyond Xmas. Much to get done + travel today, then competing with a dozen or more for on-line time, then looking at a major storm to drive thru & clean up after.
I was just thinking that perhaps we’re best keeping this open until New Year’s Day. That’s a long time, but I know the Holidays are crazy for everyone, myself included. Plus, as you can see from my post above, from nsb’s wonderful note about schedule balance (or as you may remember, as the case may be) this season was nuts and may require a little more research than you might usually be required to put into one of these posts. So good luck, and Happy Holidays, everyone!
BTW, this is off topic but nowhere else to put it so…
Ryan Thibodaux has his annual HOF vote tracker up and running and so far has collected 85 ballots (about 19.5% of the estimated total).
Some interesting results so far:
1) Huge surge for Raines in his final year (+16 votes among returning voters).
2) Surge for Edgar as well (+12). Ortiz effect?
3) Bonds and Clemens have both gained as many voters have said they will vote for PED users now that Selg has been elected (+8 and +9).
4) Decent gains for Mussina (+6) and Larry Walker (+7).
5) Small gain for Bagwell (+4). He only needed about 12 new votes so he’s in good shape.
6) Schilling falling off a cliff after his many inflammatory comments (-10).
7) Weird voting pattern for Trevor Hoffman. He’s gained 7 votes among returning voters but also lost 6 votes from that group, for a net +1. Guessing he doesn’t make it this year.
8) Ivan Rodriguez looks like he’ll be first ballot (currently at 84%); Vlad may make it as well (72%). Manny (34%) and Posada (7%) have a long ways to go.
9) No real change for Kent, McGriff, Sheffield, Lee Smith, Sosa or Wagner.
Weird ballot awards go to Steven Marcus (only voted for Vlad and Hoffman) and Jay Dunn, who voted for both Posada and Jason Varitek while writing ” Neither had Hall of Fame numbers and I don’t expect either to get a lot of support, but both of them are getting my vote.”.
Full voting spreadsheet can be found here:
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7731&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AE2Lu5P1f92OW8o
I’ve said this elsewhere, but I’m convinced that MLB institutionally is now ready to move on with old PED users, and that is moving votes. That’s not going to mean that the guys whose numbers might have been tipped into Hall-worthy by juicing are going to get in, nor are those who have fallen under the 5% been revived, but the best of users are going to go in. It might be related to Selig, who clearly tolerated it when fannies needed to go into seats. And it may also stem from a growing realization that you can’t wish away an entire era. But the league is sending signals as well. You had A-Rod, of all people, doing commentary during the playoffs, and I can’t see how that could have happened a few years ago. Active or newly retired players who were associated with it have come back into the game. Marketing the past is something MLB does more of, and better of, than the other professional sports. If I’m a writer, and I’m seeing this occur, maybe I start to questioning how long I hold out. Especially if some of the players I’ve always admired (or were home town favorites) and were tainted are coming up for votes.
BTW, Schilling seems to have come in for more animus because of his suggestion writers be executed than his political opinions.
Re: Schlling: On twitter, I’ve seen people saying that writers are taking votes from Schilling for his political opinions. When I point back that advocating the murder of journalists is not a political opinion, they respond by saying that’s not what he was doing. I should probably just stay off of twitter.
I’m on twitter a lot for my politics side, and so see a lot of Schilling. The T-Shirt in question said “rope, tree, Journalist, some assembly required”
I can’t imagine how any fair-minded journalist could possibly be offended.
Just looking at the names on the spreadsheet this might be the first year in quite a while where I might not have used all 10 available spots
Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Pudge, Moose, Raines, Gar, Walker & Schilling- in spite of his being a world class jerk- would all be sure things for me. I’m on the fence about Vlad & Manny & remain open to being convinced about 4 or 5 others, including a couple floundering in the low teens. It’s conceivable I might vote for one of them just to keep them on the ballot.
It would be interesting to see how the public voting compared to the actual vote in years past. Just at a glance at last years ballot it looks like the players the more advanced metrics crowd might favor- Bagwell, Raines & a few others- did better in the public balloting while those who might be considered a little more “old school”- Lee Smith- did better among the voters whose ballots we did not see. Basically Rock & Bags might want a 5% cushion, give or take, in public voting to be safe.
All little more than half the number of ballots that were made public last year have now been posted and as it stands 4 players are either at or over the 75% threshold plus one other that is less than 3% of clearing the mark as well. Four others are above 62% (and 3 of those over 68%). I think there’s a real chance of 5 guys making it in this year since it seems that the public ballots seem to lean towards the “advanced metrics” crowd and their 2 favorites- Bagwell & Raines- are building a nice cushion by being named on over 90% of the ballots. The reason I think there’s a chance that 5 guys might make it is that the 2 candidates I believe the more traditional voters (and the ones less likely to make their ballots public) favor are Guerrero & Hoffman and they’re either right at or slightly below the threshold as of this moment. Even more exciting for the future is that the next 4 in line- Bonds, Clemens, Martinez & Mussina- are all running about 20% ahead of where they finished last season.
Really looking forward to voting for another 4 or 5 guys for the Circle of Greats sometime soon.
I’ve been thinking about the COG, too, Hartvig!
Also, moments like this REALLY make me miss numbered comments, because finding the most recent post was a real pain.
And there were two more players at 21 HR — Gorman Thomas and Greg Luzinski (DH only) — and five more at 17 (Rice, Aikens, Mayberry RFD, Baylor, CJohnson).
Goose Gossage was second to Fingers in saves (20 Sv in 32 GP, 30 GF — 46 2-3 IP) with an ERA of 0.77. Dave Righetti had an ERA of 2.05 but was five outs short of qualifying for the ERA title (he did win Rookie of the year).
Seems odd that while all of our home run leaders are also Gold Glove candidates all of the also-rans – with the exception of Rice and making allowances for Gorman Thomas’s position- are fairly notorious for their abysmal fielding.
Hey everyone! Haven’t been here for awhile, I didn’t even know the site was down when it was down. Good to see there are still lots of great contributors that have a ton of baseball knowledge and memory. Doom, this is a great idea for a series, and it’s good (along with birtelcom’s return) to see someone other than Doug putting some content together (thanks always to Doug for tireless work).
Anyway, this is a really tough year for an MVP vote. I need to do some research on the season to feel qualified enough to vote. As a relative newcomer to baseball, I’ve always been more of one to read and learn from other posters than to contribute new insights. I’ll probably go back to being more of a reader than comment writer, but I just wanted to say I binge-read everything since September on the site in the past week and it’s really great to read these discussions.
1981 is a difficult year in part because the short season compresses the numbers jus below the very top. Dewey Evans looks like the premier choice to me, but after that there’s an awful lot of guys with relatively similar numbers. Another third of a season probably would have helped with some separation. My ballot (as usual, based primarily on a combination of WAR and WPA):
1. Dwight Evans
2. Rickey Henderson
3. Buddy Bell
4. Dwayne Murphy
5. Bobby Grich
6. Robin Yount
7. Bert Blyleven
8. Steve McCatty
9. Tony Armas
10. Tom Paciorek
1) Evans
2) Henderson
3) Grich
4) Murray
5) Cooper
6) Paciorek
Since they only played 60 % of the season, I figured I’d provide 6 slots out of 10. I have to agree with Birtlecom that there’s little separation due to the compressed nature of the strike-shortened season. However, Dwight Evans had a significant advantage in runs created over the rest of the league. The Red Sox, at the conclusion of the season, appear to be 2.5 games worse in the AL East – in 5th place! Obviously, we baseball fans were cheated out of what would have been a helluva pennant race.
On another note, based on dWAR, Buddy Bell appears to have been on his way to one of the greatest defensive seasons at 3B ever….
I think the rush to anoint Dwight Evans as post-mortem 1981 AL MVP is somewhat premature and quite possibly based on an incomplete look at his season and that of the BoSox. His overall stats look good on the surface—league leader in several important categories including WAR—and in fact it was a career year for him, his rather delayed breakout year as a real power hitter and taker of passes, his first appearance in the MVP voting ranks, etc.
My impression from following HHS for some time is that he was a favorite of the fans and his career stats are in favor with sabermetricians. I must admit, though, that until recently I myself had a hard time keeping him divorced in my mind from the other D. Evans of his era, and my natural bias against the AL Boston franchise plus a healthy skepticism about the batting numbers put up by players whose careers were 50% defined by Fenway Park have made me dubious from the get-go about giving him too much credit for his ’81 exploits.
Beyond that, there are a few hard facts that increase my sense of dubiety. First, Evans’ home/road splits, while not as pronounced as those of some Boston players in big years, do make one wonder: 15 HRs at home, 7 on the road; OPS of 1.066 at home,0.817 away; 50 runs scored at home, 34 away—all in spite of the fact that he played two more games as a visitor than as as a host.
More damaging to the impression of a great season, though, are his first half/second half splits.
First half: 13 HR, 39 RBI, .341 BA, 1.031 OPS.
2nd half: 9 HR, 32 RBI, .249 BA, 0.838 OPS.
How did the Red Sox fare as a team in the two halves? Well, while Evans was tearing the cover off the ball the team managed a 30-26 record. While he was not doing so well they played at 29-23.
So how valuable was Evans to the team? He may have carried them in the first half—I haven’t tried to explore that issue—but he certainly was not the prime mover for their somewhat greater success in the second session. In fact, it’s tempting to say that had he played a little better in the second half they might not have lost the division by a game and a half to the Brewers.
Most valuable? I personally don’t buy it. I’d take Fingers over him without looking for anyone else.
“…plus a healthy skepticism about the batting numbers put up by players whose careers were 50% defined by Fenway Park have made me dubious from the get-go”
N S B,
Yeah, I hear you – don’t let me start WW III again with some “healthy skepticism” toward the immortal Larry Walker. Or, for that matter, Todd Helton, Cargo, etc…. By the same token, it only took Evans 3,889 plate appearances to finally bust-out at age 29. He wasn’t Clemente or Kaline but, from age 29-37 he did manage a 139 OPS+ with 270 TB, 95 BB, and 109 RC. Coupled with the fact that I’m relatively skeptical of relief pitchers as major award winners (Cy Young, MVP), I don’t see Fingers deserving the award. I believe Bill James pointed out somebody (Peter Ladd?) replaced Fingers not long after ’81 or ’82 and did a fairly good job in his absence for the Brewers.
Believe me, I’m no Red Sox fan. But, despite the fact that Yaz did pull a .264/.357/.422 for his career on the road, he did manage ~.314/.415/.540 on the road in ’67,’68, and ’70 while establishing himself as the best player (for that window) in the AL. Perhaps this was Evans’ smaller window?
Dwight Evans not busting out was still pretty good. Averaged about 5 WAR per 650 plate appearances prior to his age-29 season. All told, he probably deserved a lot more consideration for the HOF than he received.
Bobby Grich also has extreme first-half/second-half splits. The Angels’ 22-25 start through May 27 cost manager Jim Fregosi his job. At that point Grich was slashing .239/.348/.435/.782 with five homers and 21 RBI, serving mainly as the team’s no. 8 hitter. After Gene Mauch took the helm, Grich went on a tear, going 11 for his next 22 (nine singles). After the strike, Mauch installed Grich in the no. 5 spot in the order, and Grich had a torrid August: .378/.425/.783/1.208, 10 homers, 20 RBI, and (oddly) no doubles or triples. The team managed only a 9-10 mark, though, and had compiled an 11-11 second-half record by the morning of Sept. 5.
Beginning Sept. 5, the Angels lost 14 of 15 games to fall completely out of the second-half AL West race. (During that stretch the Angels went 0-6 against eventual second-half division winner Kansas City.) Unfortunately, Grich’s only second-half slump coincided almost exactly with the Angels’ swoon. During those 15 games Grich slashed .203/.242/.339/.581. All the Angels’ position players except Rick Burleson had a lower OPS during the 15-game slump than in all their other second-half games, but in Grich’s case it was particularly noticeable: .581 vs. 1.149, a 568-point drop! He drove in four runs during the 15-game slump, and went 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position. So it was that, while Grich was assembling a .328/.372/.604/.976 second half, with 16 home runs and 37 RBI, the Angels were limping home last with a 20-30 second-half record. Most of the blame can be laid on the offense. The outfielders were either mediocre (Dan Ford, Brian Downing) or downright horrible (Fred Lynn, Juan Beníquez, Larry Harlow). 3B Butch Hobson was injured and played like it (.134/.230/.175/.405), and C Ed Ott struggled to a .536 OPS. They could not win the close games—7-19 in second-half games decided by one or two runs.
It’s worth noting that, on June 6, five days before the strike came, Grich fractured a bone in his left hand when he was hit by a pitch from Baltimore’s Steve Luebber. He was expected to be out of action four to six weeks. Even if there had been no strike, then, Grich would have missed all of June and probably part of July. He might not have returned to the lineup until the All-Star break. His final 1981 numbers are affected very little by the intrusion of the players’ strike.
As good as Grich was in 1981, his best hitting came when the Angels were losing most often. He adjusted magnificently to a power-hitting role that he wasn’t used to, increasing his homers, hitting fewer doubles and drawing fewer walks. His hand injury would have kept him out of most of the games that were canceled. Third place in the MVP voting, with no first-place votes, seems about right to me.
The 1981 season was irrational, possibly crazy, but that doesn’t mean that irrationality should determine evaluation of player performance, and in fact, I think that on the whole the BBWA voters acted rationally in their ballot, although I don’t agree with its results.
The team with the best record in the East was the Brewers, and the outstanding performance on the team was that of Rollie Fingers. How outstanding was that performance? In the 47 game where he appeared the team record was 40-7. In September when the season was on the line, he took a loss on the 2nd, but then closed out with 8 saves and three wins. Further, he’s credited with 4.2 of the team’s 5.1 pitching WAR. His ERA+ of 333 in essence saved the bacon for a starting rotation that put up 97, 88, 78, 79, and 80 figures. The team finished 10th in runs allowed out of 14, 2nd in runs scored, but somehow they had the best record in the division. The somehow, the differential, was in great measure Fingers’ performance, as is also indicated by the fact that, as a reliever with just 78 innings pitched he finished second (to Steve McCatty with 185 IP) in the league in Adjusted Pitching Runs, Adjusted Pitching Wins, Base Out Runs Saved, Base Out Wins Saved, and Win Probability Added.
In short, Fingers was a much more viable MVP candidate that the current re-voting here indicates, or so say I.
Nevertheless, he wasn’t, in my view, the true MVP. The team with the best record in the AL was the Oakland A’s, and the best player by far on the A’s was Rickey Henderson. Henderson’s stats are not quite as impressive in the raw as those of Dwight Evans, true. He led the league in Runs, and Hits, and finished well up in several other categories, falling behind Evans, 6.7 to 6.6, in the WAR competition. Henderson, however, was a model of consistency compared to Evans, whose first half/second half splits show a tremendous gap in favor of the beginning session, as I have discussed in an earlier set of remarks. Henderson’s first half stats show him scoring 46 runs, having 72 hits, 33 SBs, and a BA of .320 with an OPS of .863. His second half produced 43 runs, 63 hits, and 23 SBs, an apparent decline, but actually the A’s in that screwy season played 10 fewer games in the second half, so that his .318 BA, very close to his first half performance, is a better indication. His OPS of .824 shows some decline, true, but nothing like the decline of over 190 points suffered by Evans. In short, while Evans faded into the crowd for the Bosox in the second half (while the team actually improved slightly in its W-L %), Henderson continued to lead the As forward. How? Well, he had 31 more runs scored than his nearest teammate, 20 more hits, 46 more stolen bases, a lead of 51 points in BA, 39 in OBP, and 14 in OPS+, despite hitting only 6 HRs. His 2.0 fielding WAR was over a third of the team total, and his 6.6 led other position players by at least 2.2.
So here’s my vote:
1) Rickey Henderson
2) Rollie Fingers
3) Cecil Cooper—Hit .368 in the second half with a .998 OPS, and is the only player under serious consideration who hit well above average with men on base.
4) Tom Paciorek—Career year, true, but still, 4.3 WAR on a team that managed 6.3 total on offense? Same OPS+ as Henderson, 151?
5) Dwight Evans—discussed at length in a different entry.
6) Tony Armas
7) Bobby Grich
8) Eddie Murray
(The four HR leaders in succession)
9) Buddy Bell
10) Robin Yount
We’re not voting the Cy Young, but I’d give it to McCatty over Fingers by a hair. To me Rollie was more valuable, but Steve had a slightly better season overall, given their different pitching roles.
I’ve been thinking about this election a lot during these lazy holiday days. I found nsb’s defense of Rollie Fingers quite interesting – but I would note that, even in a post defending Fingers, nsb still can’t bring himself to put The Moustache in the top spot. I also have to say I agree with birtelcom, in that the season was too short for much separation among the top candidates to have occurred. That said, it doesn’t always TAKE a full season for the top performers to separate themselves – and likewise, sometimes 162 isn’t enough to separate them anyway. But ’81 may be one of those years when a top candidate WOULD have emerged, given the time. My money’s on Rickey Henderson to have been that guy. So here’s my ballot:
1. Rickey Henderson – His walk rate wasn’t yet quite what it would become, and he seemed to get caught on the basepaths an awful lot. Nonetheless, he really started to become Rickey! in 1981. Best player, by a hair, on a crowded ballot.
2. Bobby Grich – Trivia time: how many second basemen have led the AL in home runs? Answer: two – Nap Lajoie in 1901 and Bobby Grich 80 years later (expect Robinson Cano III to lead in 2061, I guess). Grich was a slick second-sacker with a stick to match, and ’81 would have been his best season, had the strike not wrecked the year.
3. Eddie Murray – this guy has gotten only a cursory look from our electorate. He took a HUGE step forward in 1981. He actually had more WAA in 1981 than in ’80, in spite of being Steady Eddie already a year earlier. He nearly hit .300 and led the AL in HR and RBI. I’m not really sure how a guy does that for a second-place team and only finishes fifth in MVP voting. I have him higher
4. Dwight Evans – Another guy potentially having a career year. Plenty of others have written him up here.
5. Tom Paciorek – Yowza, this season DOES NOT fit with the rest of his career. That said, even a pretty rotten rest-of-season, had it been played, and he would’ve STILL had an above-average year.
6. Steve McCatty – WHERE DID THIS SEASON COME FROM? Paciorek – sure, his is unusual. My theory is that McCatty switch identities with a completely different player in 1981. I seriously don’t get how he could have been this good.
7. Cecil Cooper – Cooper’s problem in ’81 was that he had been better the year before. With all other things being equal, had he put up his ’80 numbers in ’81, there’s no doubt in my mind that he wins the MVP. It’s just tough for me to look at a 1B who slugs less than .500 and say, “Oh, there’s your MVP!” High batting average, but always a little empty (though he DID lead the league in doubles.
8. Chet Lemon – I’m shocked that this is the first vote Lemon’s gotten, and, if anything, I’m worried it’s too low. A great defensive centerfielder who hits .300 and finishes fifth in the league in OPS, all while playing basically every day? That’s a pretty astonishing thing.
9. Gorman Thomas – Chet Lemon-lite in 1981. Nearly led the league in HR in ’81, finishing one shy at 21. Had Thomas hit that extra homer, he would’ve led the AL three times in four years, yet is basically forgotten outside of Milwaukee these days.
10. Rollie Fingers – He won it, and that ERA+ number (333) is hilariously awesome. That said, look at FIP, and what you’ll see is that Dave Righetti had essentially the EXACT same season, but in MORE innings (in fact, technically, Righetti actually led the AL in ERA+, as he qualified for the title – barely – while Fingers finished way short). Still, what happened on the field is what counts, so I’m going to give Fingers the nod in the tenth spot.
HM. Robin Yount – No, three Brewers on my actual ballot was not enough for me. By the way, until about 2007, if you were to list the “All-Time Greatest Brewers Starting Lineup,” your position players would have been the 1982 Brewers, basically without exception. These teams never quite caught the breaks they needed, though they did play in a memorable World Series… which they lost. Anyway, Yount was great in ’81. Of course, he would blow out the field the following year, playing for the best team in the AL and playing SS like it literally hadn’t been played since Honus Wagner (via WAR, anyway). I would’ve snuck him on above Thomas and Fingers, but I know he has better things to come in ’82. That’s the value of doing this 35 years later. 🙂
“nsb still can’t bring himself to put The Moustache…..”
Doom:
Everyone knows that “The Moustache” (Il Baffo) is Mike D’Antoni, former head bb coach Knicks and Suns, no? On another note, Win Shares, AL 1981:
26.9 Henderson
26.0 Evans
22.4 Cooper
21.1 Murray
21.0 Grich
20.4 Murphy
20.2 Thomas
20.1 Yount
18.0 Armas
17.9 McCatty
So, you’ve got the entire Oakland OF and McCatty, as well as three Brewers. Fingers is by far the best reliever (17.1 vs. 11.8 for Doug Corbett)
1. Henderson
2. Grich
3. Evans
4. McCatty
5. Bell
6. Yount
7. Murray
8. Blylevin
9. Fingers
10. Cooper
1. Evans
2. Grich
3. Henderson
4. Cooper
5. Winfield
6. McCatty
7. Fingers
8. Gossage
9. Lansford
10. Thomas
May be as unsure of this vote as any we have done so far.
1) Rickey Henderson
2) Bobby Grich
3) Buddy Bell
4) Dewey Evans I find nsb’s argument to be convincing, as much as I may wish it were otherwise
5) Cecil Cooper
6) Robin Yount
7) Rollie Fingers Gossage might have had an even more outstanding year but only pitched slightly more than half as many innings.
8) Rick Burleson Couldn’t see how I could justify voting for Yount & not Burleson, even tho it meant I didn’t have a spot for Trammell
9) Jim Sundberg Speaking of catchers, check out Bo Diaz’s 1981 season.
10) Dwayne Murphy
I can certainly understand why people are voting for Paciorek but I think WAR might be overstating his defensive contributions a little. And maybe Armas or Winfield or Willie Wilson or Chet Lemon deserve it over Murphy.
And how wonderful is it that the team with the best record in the league has a keystone combo with the names of Shooty Babitt & Rob Picciolo?
Hartvig, it COULD be fair to say that WAR overestimates Paciorek’s defense. However, I didn’t look at WAR when I voted, and I had him 5th on my ballot. Having the 4th-best OPS in the league will do that for you. Regardless of defense, he was mashing in ’81, in a ballpark that was neutral that year. Hard to call that anything but a great season. That was my thinking, anyway.
Upon further reflection it occurs to me that perhaps I did a) underestimate the value of Paciorek’s contribution and that b) the person WAR might be most overstating their defensive contribution might be Robin Yount. His Rfield #’s that year do seem to be out of line with the rest of his career anyways. That’s one item where I think only direct observation might be able to verify/clarify. If I were to redo my ballot at this moment I would probably swap out Murray & Paciorek for Yount & Murphy
Doom, although I love this topic and the way you’ve presented it, I think you’ve grossly mischaracterized the Fingers-to-the-Brewers trade. In that trade the Cardinals parted with two veteran stars and a journeyman (Fingers, Simmons, Vuckovich) in exchange for two established young players (Lezcano and Lary Sorensen) and two very promising prospects (Dave LaPoint and David Green). Lezcano and Sorensen each had mediocre half-seasons in St. Louis in 1981, then were packaged in separate trades the following off-season for, among others, Ozzie Smith and Lonnie Smith, who of course were instrumental in helping the Cardinals win the ’82 World Series. LaPoint went 34-22 in a bit more than three seasons in St. Louis (94 ERA+). I agree that David Green was a disappointment for the Cards, though even he posted a 99 OPS+ in two-plus seasons as a regular. LaPoint and Green were traded together along with two other players to the Giants after the 1984 season for Jack Clark, who was probably the key player in getting the Cardinals to the ’85 and ’87 World Series.
Fingers gave the Brewers four good seasons as an effective reliever before retiring, Simmons five seasons with a cumulative 100 OPS+ as a catcher and DH, Vuckovich two seasons as a very effective starter and small parts of three others as an injured non-contributor. The net trade haul to the Brewers for these three good players was one half-season from 32-year-old Rick Cerone in 1986.
I’d never have guessed it, but LaPoint pitched more innings for the Cardinals (547) than Vuckovich did for the Brewers (533).
After 1981 the Cardinals made the World Series three times in six seasons. The players acquired as a result of the Fingers trade played a significant part in that. It was not a bad trade for the Cardinals at all.
Touche, Kahuna Tuna, touche.
I think it’s something like cherry picking to say that the Fingers trade was a good one for the Cardinals because they ended up with Ozzie and Lonnie via a second trade. I think you have to evaluate the two trades separately, and probably fairer to say that the Fingers trade was dubious at best but the second trade was, of course, outstanding for St. Louis.
I kind of agree and kind of don’t, Doug. In this situation, the one playing season the Cardinals got out of Sorenson and Lezcano doesn’t fairly represent the value the team got from them, since the on-field value the players retained after 1981 is [part of] what allowed the team to upgrade at two important positions for several seasons to come. By your logic, would a trade for a player flipped within a matter of days (e.g., Fingers 1980, 0 IP for STL, or Mike Piazza 1998, 19 PA for FLA) be a complete debacle, or should we consider the flipped player’s value in light of what he ultimately brought back to the team that first traded for him? (BTW, I am not arguing that the Marlins won the Piazza trade.)
Granted, evaluating trades in this manner can get very messy very quickly—who would want to run a “subsequent value obtained” analysis for Frank Lane’s teams? But for the early-’80s Cardinals and Brewers, the Fingers trade stands out as one that within two seasons helped send the two franchises in opposite directions because of the age-based trade value of the players involved on both sides. The Cardinals profited because they traded for youth.
If St. Louis had flipped Fingers for Ozzie, then I would concede that it may have been a shrewd move. But, with an additional degree of separation, seems like two separate moves to me. Going young helped the Cardinals dominate through the 80s, but I don’t think it was necessarily a bad move for the Brewers to go to a win now mode (they also acquired an aging Don Sutton in ’82, giving up Kevin Bass) since they succeeded in that objective by making the post-season in ’81 and coming within four innings of a WS title in ’82.
That ’82 World Series is perhaps a case of what might have been for the Brewers, who were without Fingers after he was sidelined at the beginning of September. Fingers wasn’t as dominant in ’82 but he was still efficient with his save opportunities, converting 29 of 35, almost identical to the 28 of 34 he had in ’81. Fingers’ replacement Bob McClure had one save in the series, but also lost game 2 after coming into a tied game, and then lost game 7 when he couldn’t hold a 6th inning lead.
This one wasn’t easy. After using my specialized parameters I am listing the following 6 players:
1. Eddie Murray
2. Dwight Evans
3. Rickey Henderson
4. Bobby Grich
5. Cecil Cooper
6. Buddy Bell
Here’s something else bizarre about the 1981 AL: not only did 9 out of 14 teams have winning records; but seven of the nine finished within a five game range:
Oakland 64-45
Milwaukee 62-47
Baltimore 59-46
Detroit 60-49
New York 59-48
Boston 59-49
Texas 57-48
In 1964 in the NL the top five teams (out of 10) finished in a five game range, which was equally strange if not more so, considering the fact that it came before division play. Throw in the fact that the three top teams in the AL that year finished with a two game spread, and you might think there were lots of heart attacks among fans in early October that year. Somehow I don’t remember much myself, but I was in college and occupied with studies in a dorm with no TV.
I’d say nobody noticed because of the split season, but many newspapers also included the whole-season standings along with their second-half standings.
i do recall hemmin and hawin from Cardinals fan as well as Reds fans. ….Sportwriters in Philadelphia (4 daily newspapers) bitched frequently about how illogical it was to have split standings. Bill Conlin led that charge.
…….must have been Selig’s idea. When in doubt, blame Selig
A little late but:
Henderson
Evans
Bell
Fingers
Blyleven
Grich
Dw. Murphy
McCatty
Righetti
Gossage
Sorry to be so late to this party…
1) Buddy Bell
2) Rickey Henderson
3) Dwight Evans
4) Bert Blyleven
5) Bobby Grich
6) Robin Yount
7) Chet Lemon
8) Steve McCatty
9) Lou Whitaker
10) Dave Stieb
My voting:
1) RHenderson
2) McCatty
3) CCooper
4) EMurray
5) DwEvans
6) Grich
7) DLeonard
Eight) WWilson
9) Gossage
10) Righetti
I looked at Black ink, Gray ink, and did the team make the postseason (Milwaukee, New York, Kansas City, Oakland did).
I wasn’t sure if 8) would convert to a smiley. And John Smiley was not on my ballot — he would have still been in high school in ’81.
1. Rickey Henderson
2. Dwight Evans
3. Carney Lansford
4. Tom Paciorek
5. Bobby Grich
6. Cecil Cooper
7. Eddie Murray
8. Dave Winfield
9. Buddy Bell
10. Kirk Gibson
I realize now that I never put an actual official end date/time, so I’m going to include Josh’s ballot above. It’s not really going to change the results, anyway, so I figure there’s no harm. Just as a reminder, first place is worth 14 points, second worth 9, third worth 8, etc., down to the tenth spot on the ballot. In the event of a tie in points, it is broken first by number of ballots appeared on. Then by height of the highest vote. Then by number of votes at that level. Then second highest height of vote, then number of votes at that level, etc., until the tie is broken or made final. Anyway, here are the results of our 14 electors, with point total listed and first place votes in parentheses:
1. Rickey Henderson, 162 (8)
2. Dwight Evans, 132 (4)
3. Bobby Grich, 100
4. Cecil Cooper, 59
5. Buddy Bell, 59 (1)
6. Eddie Murray, 53 (1)
7. Steve McCatty, 39
8. Rollie Fingers, 28
9. Robin Yount, 28
10. Tom Paciorek, 27
11. Bert Blyleven, 20
12. Dwayne Murphy, 15
13. Carney Lansford, 15
14. Dave Winfield, 11
15. Tony Armas, 7
16. Chet Lemon, 7
17. Goose Gossage, 6
18. Mike Hargrove, 6
19. Alan Trammell, 5
20. Dennis Leonard, 4
21. Dave Righetti and Gorman Thomas, 3
23. Rick Burleson, Ron Guidry, and Willie Wilson 3
26. Lou Whitaker and Jim Sundberg, 2
28. Kirk Gibson and Dave Stieb, 1
Henderson steals this election in a walk (that was supposed to be two Rickey-related puns in one sentence). Henderson, Evans, and Grich were the easy top-3, as they were the only three to appear on all 14 ballots, though no one liked Grich for the win. Cooper topped Buddy Bell for fourth place by being named on 10 ballots to Bell’s nine, though they had an identical 59 points (this makes me feel bad for Bell, since I voted for nine of the top ten finishers… Bell being the only one I didn’t name; had I, he would’ve finished ahead of Cooper). Though the 3rd- and 4th-place finishers did not receive first place votes, the 5th- and 6th-place guys each got one! Teammates Fingers and Yount had their tie broken by Fingers being listed on seven ballots to Yount’s six; similarly, Dwayne Murphy appeared on four ballots to Carney Lansford’s three. Tony Armas and Chet Lemon each appeared on two ballots for seven points; Armas gets the nod by having a 6th-place finish as his best, whereas Lemon’s best was 7th.
There were more than twice as many players named as balloters. That’s absolutely nuts. If we never have another strike season, I could live with that. 🙂
Now, because of the holidays, I was very slow in getting my next post to Doug, so you’ll have to be patient as he takes the time to make it look all nice and clear up my awkward phrasing and such. But since I’m sure you’re curious, I’ll let you know about hte next one. I’m going to cut down from the original seven posts I was going to have in the ’80s and focus just on the biggest ones. So next round, we’re taking a trip three years into the future and sticking with the AL, as we have another relief pitcher MVP, and we debate his merits (including one of the best WPA seasons of all-time) against the merits of many others – particularly his teammates. Should be a good one!
It appears that even if I had voted differently (Eddie Murray for Yount @ #6 & Paciorek for Murphy @ #10) it would have made very little difference. Murray would have still finished 6th, Paciorek & Yount would have swapped places (10th to a tie for 8th & 9th) and Murphy would have finished 13th all by himself instead of a tie for 12th & 13th.