Circle of Greats 1973 Balloting Part 1

This post is for voting and discussion in the 125th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the first of four rounds adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1973. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group of 1973-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This first group of 1973-born candidates, including those with A-C surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots. The remaining 1973-born candidates, with D-Z surnames, will be eligible to receive your votes in the next three rounds of balloting.

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. As always, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Sunday, February 4th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Friday, February 2nd.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1973 Part 1 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1973 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The ten current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1973 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Dick Allen (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Bill Dahlen (eligibility guaranteed for this 2 rounds)
Graig Nettles (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Andy Pettitte (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Manny Ramirez (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Bobby Wallace (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1973, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, A-C surname):
Mike Cameron
Geoff Blum
Casey Blake
Edgardo Alfonzo
Aaron Boone
Tony Batista
Raul Chavez

Pitchers (born in 1973, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, A-C surname):
Bartolo Colon
Tim Byrdak
Terry Adams

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144 Comments on "Circle of Greats 1973 Balloting Part 1"

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Hartvig
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I’m going to have to put some thought into this. Based on my past thinking I know which three I would list right now but I think it only fair to reassess my prior thinking on all of the holdovers. Among the newcomers I’m guessing that only Helton and Ichiro will see much support. Damon is certainly a solid candidate for the Hall of Very Good and is arguably a better player than some of the centerfielders in the HOF but I don’t see a case for his being a reasonable choice for the top half of the Hall, which… Read more »
Mike L
Guest

Anyone care to address EPM’s thoughts in the most recent Year of the Home Run post? I have one other question: How many of us are left?

Richard Chester
Guest

I will be leaving on vacation in a couple of hours, and will be away from a computer, so my participation will be limited for the next 2 weeks.

Hub Kid
Guest

The 1973 class is full of borderline Hall-of-Famers, but they’re all fairly weak Circle of Greats candidates (I’m pretty much repeating what Hartvig said in better detail above). Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the gist of EPM’s post is that 4 COG spaces to fill between the 10 returning players and the new players born in 1973 is possibly too many. I’m not sure I agree: the 1973 cohort isn’t great, but there are at least 4 “old” candidates that I would be happy to see in the Circle.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
Mike Cameron was traded for Ken Griffey. Well, Cameron, two low-level minor leaguers, and Brett Tomko. He also had a 4-homer game. … Geoff Blum hit a home run in his only World Series plate appearance. … I see Casey Blake as a what-could-have-been player. He put up solid minor league numbers, but did not get a chance to start in the Show until age 29. He was waived by Toronto, Minnesota, and Baltimore. He was a 3B in the minors, and the Jays had Tony Fernandez, the Twins were set with Corey Koskie, and Blatimore was enduring the final… Read more »
oneblankspace
Guest

but a year or so before that, Cameron was traded for Paul Konerko, who also hit a homerun in the 2005 World Series.

ThickieDon
Guest

Cameron is an all-time great defensive centerfielder, in my opinion. Too bad he struck out so much.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Will someone who understands how old-tymey defensive metrics are calculated provide us with a summary of it, please?
I ask because we are tasked with considering Bobby Wallace, one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time, who averaged about 50 errors a year.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

And Bill Dahlen, who is credited with an Rfield of plus-15 in a season with 86 errors.
I know they barely had gloves back then.
Just think if someone could put the numbers into a coherent context it would help the discussion.

Mike L
Guest

Voomo, apropos of nothing, my Dad gave me his mitt (Depression-Era mitt) and expected me to use it. You should have seen this thing. It’s why I told my parents I wanted to play first base….you needed a first basement glove.

Jeff Harris
Guest

Ramirez, Brown, Winfield

CursedClevelander
Guest
So, speaking to epm’s post in the HR topic, I agree for the most part. I don’t think we should have an option to vote for nobody, because I think it’s against the essential spirit of the exercise. Just like the BBWAA, we are occasionally vexed by oddities of timing. Weak players sneak in on soft ballots, better players get buried under a buzzsaw of stars. I think the whole point of this project (besides it being a whole lot of fun, and one of the longest ongoing processes I’ve ever been a part of) was to see how we… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
I’d like to respond to one point in CC’s post: I don’t think we should have an option to vote for nobody, because I think it’s against the essential spirit of the exercise. Just like the BBWAA, we are occasionally vexed by oddities of timing. Weak players sneak in on soft ballots, better players get buried under a buzzsaw of stars. I’ve gone back and read the initial posts on this topic — birtlecom’s original proposal and the follow-up initial round post — and there is a disconnect between the way the project was originally envisioned and the situation we’re… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Darn! This computer sent off the message above prematurely, the second time in a row for me . . . I probably need to reboot. . . . I was going to add: If anyone can recall or find the discussion that first resulted in our splitting years, that would be helpful to any attempt to clarify the “essential spirit” of the project — to use CC’s term . . . and I want to note that I share his goal. It seems to me that it is less in accord with the original spirit of the project to move… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
A few people have referred to a comment I posted last night on the last string. I’m going to paste it below, and then add a separate comment as a reply to it. ——————- I don’t know whether anyone will spot this comment, but it concerns our upcoming CoG rounds, and I think the issue I’d like to discuss is one we may want to consider before Doug opens the first of what I assume will be four rounds, given today’s Hall announcement. I should note at the outset that I’m not sure I remember the rules of the CoG… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
My post from last night is something I should have thought of earlier, to avoid having Doug go to the trouble of preparing and posting the initial round call for votes, only to have a discussion of the CoG process disturb the flow. Here’s a suggestion: I personally don’t see any 1973 A-C players challenging the leading holdovers on the list, but the last few CoG rounds have been close-fought, and I think it’s safe to say that although we may not agree on precisely which player meets the criteria (e.g., our “Brown-never!”/”Brown-forever!” factions), I think almost all of us… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Why aren’t we just moving ahead with 1974, 1975, and 1976?
The only active players from those birth years are RA Dickey, Koji Uehara, and Jason Grilli.
And in those four years, the only candidates likely to get any votes are
1973 … Helton, Ichiro
1974 … Jeter, Abreu
1975 … A-Rod, Rolen, Vlad, Ortiz
1976 … Nobody

e pluribus munu
Guest

Perhaps since we’re already in a round with 1973 A-C, we could modify Voomo’s proposal and suggest the next round be D-Z, then 1974, then 1975.

e pluribus munu
Guest

Oops – I don’t know why that last post sent when it did . . . I was adding that I did worry that there was a problem in “using up” years at that rate, since it might come back to bite us next year, if there are multiple Hall inductees.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

I don’t see ‘using up years’ as a problem. The numerical goal of this exercise is to have the same number of inductees as the HOF. We could accomplish that effectively with Redemption votes. As effective, I would say, as worrying about whether we are all still here in three years to consider the merits of Lance Berkman and Javier Vasquez.

Hartvig
Guest
One other thing to consider is what next year might bring. Mariano, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton & Andy Pettitte are the strongest candidates among the newcomers to the BBWAA ballot. I’d say Mariano is a certainty and Halladay a reasonable possibility. Among the holdovers, Edgar Martinez looks like a pretty sure thing in his final year of eligibility and Moose Mussina has a shot as well. Among the 1974 birth year, only Derek Jeter would seem to be a pretty sure thing, with Bobby Abreau probably the next strongest candidate. 1975 brings us ARod, Vlad Guerrero, Tim Hudson, David Ortiz… Read more »
mosc
Guest
1) I don’t think “lowering the bar” is a problem. The hall determines how many seats so adding lots of seats will in fact lower the bar and that’s OK. It’s not intended to be a “big hall” or “small hall” list. The COG was always thought of as a difference on who the most valid on an arbitrary cut-set would be. If that cut-set gets bigger, the average will drop. That’s OK! 2) The 3 person ballot is the central mechanism of the entire process so I’d be strongly against changing that fundamental rule. “none of the above” is… Read more »
CursedClevelander
Guest
So, apropos of not much, I was looking at the Indians career leaders to make sure I wasn’t forgetting about somebody really obvious for the Casey Blake question. I noticed that the Top 3 in Slugging Pct. for the Indians all-time are Manny, Belle and Thome. Now, I probably knew that already, or at least could have guessed, but I realized that in 1996 after Eddie Murray was traded that those 3 hit back-to-back-to-back quite a few times. Again, I was aware how incredible the Indians lineups of the 90’s were, but I wondered, how many teams had accomplished this… Read more »
Doug
Guest

Nice observation. Can also add:
– Mariners: A-Rod, Griffey and Edgar first batted back-to-back-to-back (2-3-4) in May 1996 and continued doing so regularly until Griffey left after the ’99 season (in that last year, Seattle had Griffey-ARod-Edgar at 3-4-5 for July, Aug and half of Sept).
– White Sox: Thomas, Ordonez, Konerko (1999-2003), usually 3-4-5. Like the Tribe, notable for an original franchise that the top 3 should be contemporaries for an extended period.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

I was just looking at Brewer team (they made some big moves tonight), and noticed a rare stat line from their 3rd baseman, Travis Shaw. He had 31 HR last year, while stealing 10 bases, and having zero Caught Stealing.
Only a handful of guys have done that since 1951
(I choose that as the cutoff, because CS stats are iffy or non-existent before then):

2017 … 31/10 … Travis Shaw
2009 … 31/23 … Chase Utley
2008 … 31/10 … Jason Bay
1996 … 48/11 … Albert Belle

e pluribus munu
Guest
I’ve been immersed in posts about the CoG process, and should have posted this earlier. It’s my usual table comparing holdover candidates and leading newcomers according to WAR, in various totals (peak, average, etc.), ERA+, and career length (indexing the shortest career as 1.0). It’s just one possible set of reference points, if anyone finds them useful. I don’t actually think any of the 1973 A-C players belong in this comparison, but Colon comes closest, so I included him. Pitchers P(Tot)WAR…Peak5..Top5…WAR/9IP…WAR/Yr….ERA+…Career length 68.5 (68.3)……37.0…37.0……0.189……4.0 (17)……127……1.0………Brown 66.1 (66.7)……28.7…34.7……0.171……3.9 (17)……114……1.2………Tiant 60.9 (60.8)……20.3…28.4……0.166……3.4 (18)……117……1.0………Pettitte 47.5 (45.8)……22.8…24.1……0.129……2.5 (19)……107……1.0………Colon* Position Players WAR……Pk5……Top5……WAR/G…WAR/Yr……OPS+…Career length 58.7………31.5……36.7……0.034……4.2 (14)……156………1.0………Allen… Read more »
mosc
Guest

Nettles, Winfield, Pettitte

mosc
Guest

I still can’t believe you guys actually got Wes Ferrell in with out me. Well done!

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Winfield had some impressive longevity.
Played the field through age 39.
40-43 were mostly (but not entirely) DH.
That age 40 season he had 670 PA.
Only Rose had more PA after age 40.
Winfield had a 138 ops+ that year

Most PA in a season, age 40+:
720 / 90 ….. Pete Rose
670 / 138 … Winfield
669 / 118 … Sam Rice
637 / 87 ….. Eddie Murray
635 / 59 ….. Rabbit Maranville
634 / 76 ….. Jeter
626 / 164 … David Ortiz
625 / 125 … Honus Wagner

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

500+ PA, Age 40+, highest ops+:

164 … Ortiz
157 … Mays
141 … Edgar Martinez
138 … Winfield
137 … Musial
135 … Darrel Evans
134 … Cobb
134 … Fisk

Fisk was 42, and played Catcher in 116 games.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Best seasons, according to Pitching WAR
Brown.Tiant.Pettitte

8.6 … 8.4 … 8.4
8.0 … 7.8 … 6.8
7.2 … 6.6 … 5.6
7.0 … 6.3 … 3.8
6.2 … 5.6 … 3.6
4.8 … 5.4 … 3.4
4.5 … 4.6 … 3.3
4.3 … 4.1 … 3.2
4.0 … 3.8 … 3.1
3.6 … 3.2 … 2.9
3.1 … 2.6 … 2.6
2.8 … 2.5 … 2.5
2.1 … 2.4 … 2.5
1.7 … 1.9 … 2.4
1.6 … 1.2 … 2.2
0.2 … 0.2 … 2.2
-0.2 .. 0.0 … 1.5
-0.4 .. -0.3 .. 1.1
-0.5 .. -0.4 .. n/a

e pluribus munu
Guest
In writing a post about Bonds and Clemens on a recent string, I argued that one of the unaddressed problems their PED use had created concerned their places on the leaderboards for position players and pitchers. They are, as one HoF voter said, arguably the greatest position player and pitcher of all time. Except that they aren’t. When their careers began their natural declines, they cheated with PEDs and were able to pile up unprecedented late career numbers. They were both terrific players naturally, and would have stood high on those all-time leaderboards (especially Bonds), but nowhere near the very… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
1. It was the Steroid Era. The steroid-aided pitchers were pitching to steroid-aided hitters. At some point we have to come to terms with that and call the advantages a wash. 2. But I understand that is not your point. You are saying that Brown’s career arc was unnatural because PEDs kept him strong later than he shoulda been. Okay. Maybe. It is speculation. Could be that guys making millions had better resources (triniers, nutrition, cozier travel), than the fellas toiling in 70’s. That has to be a big part of why athletes in their mid-30s are enduring more than… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Voomo, The Mitchell report says “2000 or 2001,” and that the person who sold him the PEDs at that time said he was unusually knowledgeable about HGH. I continue to disagree with you on your point (1) and don’t foresee changing. The PED-pitchers and PED-hitters may be a wash, but PED players were not playing on the same terms as non-PED players. Brown’s record in his PED years is based on a comparison with other pitchers, not PED hitters. My belief is that we come to terms with the PED era when we acknowledge that a group of players sabotaged… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest

I should have clarified that last paragraph: While MLB did not have a specific rule against HGH till 2005, HGH became a controlled substance under federal law in 1990. Brown may not have broken the rules; he broke the law. I don’t believe that if MLB has not specifically banned breaking a law to gain competitive advantage that means players have implicit permission to break that law without baseball consequences.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
Yes, good point about HGH being illegal. I wasn’t completely fluent on that detail. I’d agree with you, too that it would be great to just point an exclusionary finger at all the players who broke the rules/laws and then move on, but we can not and will not because: 1. We will never know all of their names. 2. The names we do know we’ll never get all the facts. 3. And because it ain’t so simple as to blame the players when the trainers, coaches, executives and so-called journalists were all in on it. … – I used… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Voomo, I think I’ve written concerning your first two points already. On #3, I don’t disagree with you one iota about the bad faith of blaming only players. I don’t think that people do, in fact, blame only players. But it’s true that baseball sanctions largely seem to be confined to the players. I think it was outrageous to put Selig in the Hall, as I’ve said before. I think Selig should have been disqualified for the Hall just as I think Bonds and Clemens should be. The fact that Selig wasn’t, however, means the Hall committee made a mistake,… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
I do enjoy taking the least-popular side of an argument and debating it, simply because I think that we need a lot more of that in our society, but I’m not trying to be the pro-PED guy here. For me it is all about the quality of the conversation. I can’t go along with a purely punitive approach, even if I agree with many of the points. I’m disheartened by what I see as hypocrysy and willful ignorance (not here at HHS, but in the tone of the conversation in society at large). For example, cortisone. No, anabolic and cortico… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Well, Voomo, I think the answer to most of your questions is that the species is imperfect. I’m not sure whom to hold responsible for creating the problem, but I’m sure it’s neither you nor I — it’s not even Bud Selig. It is true that Andy Pettitte does seem to be a decent person, that Kevin Brown appears to be sort of a jerk, and that Mark McGwire is a real prince of a guy. But I’m not voting for any of them, because their numbers are cooked. As for the long list of things you name, I think… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Ha! I already had my one cigarette today. Of course, mine was blue lotus flowers, mullein, damiana, lion’s mane, and mugwort, because I am that much of a pain in the ass.

e pluribus munu
Guest

🙂

Hartvig
Guest
The biggest issue is HGH in pitchers is not necessarily that it turned bad pitchers into good pitchers but that it shortened recovery time and allowed them to pitch more innings. A positive if you are a good pitcher but not so much if you’re not. For me, PED’s are a bridge too far. Yeah, I don’t like that guys like Mantle partied all night and then popped a greenie to get straight for the next days game. But someone like Musial who didn’t go out there and hellraise and stay out all night weren’t being put at a disadvantage… Read more »
mosc
Guest
I totally agree with you on PED’s. You have to make some judgement to level the playing field. We do it between eras without batting an eyelash with OPS+. We do it within a season with park factors. We do it with defensive metrics by basing them entirely on how other players at the same position in that year would have performed, 100% relative. Lets not kid ourselves that the entire process is comparative with adjustments. I adjust for everything, PED’s included. I would rule out guys who were suspended which basically means two: AROD and Manny. Braun too if… Read more »
mosc
Guest

Pettitte has a huge post season advantage so I’m likely to go strongly in his favor in a statistical wash. Not that it’s a wash, but it’s not far off.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
My first impression comparing Dick Allen and Manny is that they are very similar, but that Manny did it for 2400 more PA. They were both rated as awful fielders (though Allen got to be awful at the very different positions). So here’s a comp of each of their best seasons, using just Rbat … best Rbat Allen.Manny 60 … 61 55 … 59 52 … 53 40 … 53 39 … 49 36 … 46 34 … 43 34 … 43 34 … 42 26 … 42 22 … 37 09 … 36 00 … 32 00 … 25… Read more »
CursedClevelander
Guest
Manny was a few knocks away from having an OPS of over 1.000 with three different teams in pretty decent tenures. .998 OPS (.313/.407/.592 [so it would seem like rounding would give him a ,999] slash line) in 4,095 PA’s with the Indians .999 OPS (.312/.411/.588) in 4,682 PA’s with the Red Sox 1.012 OPS (.322/.433/.580) in 892 PA’s with the Dodgers As far as I can tell, there’s only one player in history who can claim even two teams with an OPS of over 1.000 at a similar PA sample size, and that’s Jimmie Foxx – 1.034 with the… Read more »
JEV
Guest

Ramirez, Brown, Dahlen

e pluribus munu
Guest
Voomo asked, “Will someone who understands how old-timey defensive metrics are calculated provide us with a summary of it, please?” And pointed to Bill Dahlen, “who is credited with an Rfield of plus-15 in a season with 86 errors.” I don’t think I understand any more about old-time defensive stats than Voomo, but I thought it might be good to look at how Dahlen appears in the context of the 12-team NL of 1895. 1895 NL Primary Shortstop Fielding G……E…DP…Fld%……Rnge/9….Rfld…Team……….Player 131…56…71….940……7.05………18….BALT……Hughie Jennings 128…64…50….925……6.36………17….BKLN……Tommy Corcoran 123…84…48….892……5.68………-3…..BOST……Herman Long 129…86…70….904……6.52………15….CHIC…….Bill Dahlin 127…59…58….923……5.76……….6…..CINC…….Germany Smith 132…69…42….907……5.27……….4…..CLE………Ed McKean 88…..63…39….874……5.38………-17…LOU……..Frank Shugart 126…73…59….913……6.32………17….NY……….Shorty Fuller 89…..62…32….879……5.32………-12…PHIL……..Joe Sullivan 108…77…42….884……5.58………-7…..PIT……….Monte Cross… Read more »
mosc
Guest

I’m… not buying it. I’m sorry but this is a non-integrated league. These guys practically played a different sport. I also don’t fear “forgetting the history” for it’s own value. I find it impossible to argue you’d rather draft Dahlen than say Nomah (sorry, gotta spell it that way) if they were both 18.

e pluribus munu
Guest
Of course I’d draft Nomah. He would be head and shoulders beyond Dahlen — assuming the Dahlen we’re talking about is coming direct from 1895-1905. If Dahlen somehow could have grown up in our era — the game norms, the training, the diet from childbirth, etc. — everything else remaining the same, I’d pick Dahlen. If you want to argue that segregation-era baseball can’t be compared to post-1947 baseball, I suppose that’s ok. But why would Dahlen and Wallace be special cases, different from the many CoG inductees whose careers predated 1947? For me, the premise of the exercise is… Read more »
Brent
Guest
One thing I would add to this well put post is that errors are the only stat that is dependent on the observations of an outside source (now the official scorer, I am unsure who was deciding that in the 19th century or early 20th century). The judgments made are not consistent over the course of time (what is normally considered error has changed considerably in my lifetime), nor even are the consistent from place to place. When we are presented with a total of errors from 1895 we have no context at all as to what that even means… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
A very important point, Brent, and one that I suspect there’s some research on–or at least materials for research– because I’m sure there are contemporary accounts that give indications of how these matters were conceived, even if they haven’t yet been explored in published studies. (Perhaps someone who is a member of SABR and is familiar with that stream of articles knows more about the state of research on early fielding and scoring.) On your last point, we do have early rule books that describe for the benefit of official scorers how to distinguish an error from a hit. The… Read more »
Steven
Guest

Andy Pettitte – Dick Allen – Richie Ashburn

T-Bone
Guest

Dick Allen, Graig Nettles, Luis Tiant

Hub Kid
Guest
Luis Tiant, Manny Ramirez, Mike Cameron I’ve gone with the best two of the holdovers IMO, and my favorite newcomer since it seems wrong to have no votes for them. Cameron is a kind of player I’ve voted for a lot (including Kenny Lofton, and Tony Philips), although I might be inventing similarities where there are none; I guess what I like here is defensive journeymen with some offensive skills (in Cameron’s case: home runs/slugging, some on-base ability, baserunning). Thanks to Doug for welcoming discussion of the structure of these four rounds, partly since he will be the one to… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Looking at the spreadsheet, I see that 189 different voters have participated in this project.
Doug (Andy?), is it within the operational framework of HHS to pop off a group email to let folks know the COG is active?

trackback

[…]  has not been elected to the Circle of Greats; and    –   is not on the ballot for the 1973 Part 1 COG Balloting also being conducted this […]

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Vote:

Richie Ashburn
Bill Dahlen
Dave Winfield
________________

ASHBURN
Durable
Great D at CF
A Lot of Black Ink
Sustained Peak
……………………….. and he’s on the bubble.

DAHLEN
3rd in WAR among SS from 1871-1991 (Wagner, Davis). 10th all-time. Those numbers are for 50%+ shortstops.
Among players with at least 75% of games at SS, only Ripken and Ozzie are ahead of him.

WINFIELD
Elite Durability
………………. and I regularly saw him from the RF bleachers in the Bronx and I’m not buying his negator defensive numbers.

e pluribus munu
Guest
[NOTICE, as required by Federal Law: The excessive length of this post may cause distress in certain individuals. Avoid reading if you have a history of allergic reactions to prolixity.] Earlier, I wrote that I planned to devote some time to making the case for Dahlen and Wallace, and I have been trying to get clear in my own mind what their records reflect. Voomo, in his CoG vote, has noted some positive aspects of Dahlen’s record in terms of his standing among shortstops, and I want to take that route in this comment. Dahlen was his team’s primary shortstop… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Not only fielders make errors: I have a substantial one of my own. I said that after 1909 both Dahlen and Wallace played only bit parts. That’s true for Dahlen, but Wallace continued to be a regular through 1911, and a semi-regular in 1912. However, since in 1910 Wallace played many games at 3B, his dWAR for that year was mixed by position and beyond my capability to blend with 1900-9; the same thus became true for 1911, though he was at short all that season. So my 1900-9 time frame for Wallace abridges his career at short a bit… Read more »
mosc
Guest

Wonderful read, thank you.

I think fundamentally my “You’re before 1947” penalty is just a lot bigger than yours.

e pluribus munu
Guest

I’m sure that’s right. And I probably overcompensate in the other direction because of worries about the very different issue of a natural bias towards the present and familiar. And, also, thanks for the kind words!

e pluribus munu
Guest
Vote: Dahlen, Wallace, Winfield Obviously, I’ve committed to Wallace and Dahlen this round, but this is the first time I’ve voted for Winfield. Unlike Voomo, I do think the poor defensive numbers for Winfield reflect reality. Looking more and more at analyses of defense, I’ve become convinced that good defense and good-looking defense are very different and very hard to tell apart from the stands, When I was young, I looked like a good right fielder. I made circus catches almost every game. It puzzled me and everyone else because I was short, fat, and slow. In a 50-yard dash… Read more »
David Horwich
Guest

Nettles, Ramirez, Tiant

Jeff B
Guest

Dave Winfield
Manny Ramirez
Richie Ashburn

How is Winfield still not in the circle?

e pluribus munu
Guest
Since we seem to have 11 votes so far, I thought I’d post an unofficial tabulation according to what I see. Without numbers on the comments it’s easy to get lost, and I may have missed votes, especially if any are in indented replies. Please let me know if you see a vote I’ve missed, or if this tally seems wrong. The voters I have are Jeff Harris, Doug, mosc, JEV, Steven, T-Bone, Hub Kid, Voomo, epm, David Horwich, and, most recently, Jeff B. 6 – Dave Winfield, Manny Ramirez* =================50% (6) 4 – Luis Tiant 3 – Bill Dahlen,… Read more »
Paul E
Guest

Allen, Winfield, Dahlen
…..and if multiple-cheat Manny Ramirez makes the CoG, I will definitely vote for Palmeiro in the redemption round

Dr. Doom
Guest
You guys, there is an INSANE amount of posting on this thread. I was too busy to post this weekend, and now I’m so far behind that I don’t know where to jump into these discussions; I will try to catch up on the reading, though. But first, I’m going to cast my vote: Kevin Brown Luis Tiant Richie Ashburn I couldn’t decide between Ashburn and Nettles, so I’m giving it to the guy on the bubble. I don’t really know that it matters, but I had to pick SOME criterion to separate them, and that’s as good as any,… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest

I’m pretty sure you’re right about Colon, Doom.

It seems ironic, given that PEDs are what’s blocking in Brown from CoG glory, that (putting aside Paul E’s vote for the moment) the leaderboard features a loopy ‘Roider next to Mr. Morality. Maybe Brown’s problem is that clubhouse tantrums aren’t as lovable as giving a smiley high-five priority over a double play.

Dr. Doom
Guest

And interesting, too, that Manny was ‘roiding in the testing era, whereas Brown was in the pre-testing era… yet one of them seems to be punished, while the other was just “being Manny,” I guess.

e pluribus munu
Guest

Well, given the choice between punishments — no votes for CoG or two huge suspensions — I’d pick Brown’s punishment over Manny’s. But yeah, I’m a little surprised by Manny’s early support in the vote, and I do think many of us tend to cut Manny slack. In my own mind, I’ve always given him an “airhead handicap,” although officially I wag my finger and frown.

mosc
Guest

My total Kevin Brown votes, now and forever, is 0

ThickieDon
Guest

Allen
Brown
Dahlen

Mike L
Guest

I’m following EPM, Winfield, and I’m going with the geezers–Wallace and Dahlen. I’m interested in more discussion about both.

no statistician but
Guest
Among the COG candidates currently on the ballot, who had the best single year’s performance? I came up with this question after examining Dick Allen’s 1972 season, and pursued it by looking for other years of not just excellence but dominance among the suspects on the list, where I discovered that no one else comes close. In fact, by my reckoning, Allen’s 1972 season has to be one of the great unrecognized performances in baseball history, despite the fact that he did win the AL MVP that year. 1972, for those who need a refresher, was a season shortened slightly… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Great catch, nsb! Allen’s season was terrific indeed. I’m a little less sure than you that it was unrecognized, since I recall a lot of hype throughout the seasons about the emergence of the new Dick Allen, unfettered at last in his new AL home. But your stat summary really drives it home, and shows the season was better than I’d recalled, so perhaps the recognition it did get was still not what it deserved. On your other point, I’m not sure that comparison with Perry and Wood actually does show the incommensurability of bWAR and pWAR. First of all,… Read more »
Mike L
Guest
EPM. you reminded me about the doubleheader Woods started against the Yankees on July 20, 1973–the last games I went to before leaving for college. Woods struck out the immortal Horace Clarke–who reached 1st on a PB, then the next five Yankees reached base and Woods was pulled for Eddie Fischer, who let seven more players come up. 8-0 by the end of the bottom of the 1st. So they sent Woods out there for the 2nd Game (I doubt he was tired) and he was perfect through 3, gave up an unearned run in the 4th, and then a… Read more »
no statistician but
Guest
A subject that’s been on my mind lately (and may show up someday in a long comment or two) is the impact of military service on baseball careers. Discovering that Bobby Murcer was the rather distant runner-up to Dick Allen in several offensive categories in 1972 made me take a look at Murcer’s career, something I can only remember doing casually in the past. Well, it turns out that just as Bobby was about to join the Yankees permanently in the spring of 1967 his draft notice showed up and he missed the next two years, although, for some reason,… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
What a great topic for research, nsb! I was thinking about this yesterday in the course of writing about Ted Lyons, though that was, of course, in the context of World War II service, which we’re accustomed to recognizing in some way. I’m not sure whether Murcer was actually on track to get the Yankee job in 1967, but one of the highest-impact instances of a young player’s career records being hurt by military service in a way that people tend to forget is the case of Willie Mays, who lost almost two years to the Army in 1952-53. You… Read more »
no statistician but
Guest
Not to beat a dead horse, but an equally prominent two year loss was suffered by Whitey Ford, who, after having been called up to the Yankees in July of 1950, went on to become the most effective pitcher in the league in August and September. We would not have been arguing over Ford’s worthiness for the COG with the probable extra 7-10+ WAR and 35+ wins his lost 1951-2 seasons might have generated. On the other hand, of course, nothing is certain. Willie might have suffered a career damaging injury, Ford a torn rotator cuff, during those two missed… Read more »
Dr. Doom
Guest

Here at HHS, we voted Willie Mays the MVP for 1960 and 1962. We didn’t re-vote 1964, but yeah; it’s certainly possible he could’ve won.

Paul E
Guest
n s b, re 1964 M V P race, In light of the Phillies coming out of nowhere in ’64 (or at least, not expected to contend to the extent they did), I believe it was kind of a sure bet that Callison would have won if the Phillies hadn’t collapsed. As for Sept/Oct: G…PA..HR..RBI 32 143 7 26 .270/.371/.533 Ken Boyer 32 142 4 29 .288/.317/.470 Bill White 33 139 8 22 .277/.317/.508 Calllison 33 146 5 18 .341/.434/.618 Richie Allen Allen scored 28 runs in the 33 games. He generally batted at the top of the order (2nd,… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Pete Alexander followed up 3 consecutive 30-win seasons with a year of WWI action. 373 career wins
Red Faber was the WS hero in ’17, only 80 IP in ’18.
Fellow Pale Hoser Joe Jackson also missed most of ’18.
Half-season for Harry Heilmann.
_______
AS for Vietnam, although Garry Maddox debuted at age 22, his two years abroad at age 19-20 may have slowed his career a bit.

Brent
Guest
Warren Spahn rarely is talked about for losing time (probably because his lost time came right at the beginning of his career) but given the fact that the Braves had him immediately in their starting rotation in 1946 once he returned from fighting Nazis, we could surmise that he possibly lost 40 to 50 wins to WWII, which would put him firmly 3rd all time in career wins and over 400 for his career (of course, maybe his arm doesn’t have as many wins in it in the back end of his career if he pitched from 1943 to 1945)
e pluribus munu
Guest

I don’t think Spahn’s arm had a fixed quota of wins in it — I think his arm was immortal (where is it now?) — but the rest of his body was vulnerable to age. I think you’re basically right about Spahn, but, a little different from Mays and Murcer, we don’t really know at what age Spahn would have become Spahn, since his 1941 debut was not impressive, and he had only pitched up to A-level in the minors (the Braves seem to have had no AA affiliates).

e pluribus munu
Guest

Whoops — “. . . a little bit different from Mays and like Murcer, . . .”

If a genie gave me three wishes, having a post-post editing program on HHS wouldn’t be one of them. But he gave me 763 . . .

e pluribus munu
Guest

. . . screwed that one up too . . .

Paul E
Guest
n s b, I think Allen may have had the second (1964) and third best (1966) seasons among this COG ballot as well. I believe Allen’s 1964 season is one of the three greatest of all-time (per WAR -Joe Jackson, Mike Trout) among true rookies. Also, in his BJHBA, James called Allen the best player in the majors in 1964 and 1972 per Win Shares. In 1966 his OPS+ was 181; in 1972 it was 199. I don’t believe anyone among the holdovers or 1973 birth year came close to those ratios. In 1967 he slumped to a league leading… Read more »
Scary Tuna
Guest
I was prepared to follow epm and Mike L. in voting for Winfield, Dahlen, and Wallace, when Doom’s comment reminded me that Big Sexy is on the ballot, and I’m quite sure this will be my only opportunity to vote for him. His accomplishments fall a bit short of serious COG consideration, but he has been very good – and very entertaining. His 4-1 record in August helped the Twins get back to the playoffs last year AFTER they became sellers at the trade deadline. He started the month with a complete game win over the Rangers, then followed up… Read more »
Brent
Guest

This is so hard. Two 19th century guys vs. a bunch of players I remember playing (except Ashburn). I think I will vote Winfield, Allen, and Wallace (to keep him on the ballot)

dr. remulak
Guest

Winfield, Nettles, Pettitte.

oneblankspace
Guest

there’s a lot of pinstripes in that vote

no statistician but
Guest
My informal count—so informal that I may be off by a vote here or there—puts Winfield in the lead with 11 votes after 18 responses, Ramirez and Dahlen with 6 apiece tied for 2nd. Here’s the final vote tally in the previous election, courtesy of epm in the early morning hours of February 18, 2017: After 26 votes, I have these results: =================50% (13) 12 – Goose Goslin 11 – Luis Tiant 9 – Dick Allen, Kevin Brown 8 – Dave Winfield =================25% (7) 6 – Bill Dahlen, Manny Ramirez* 5 – Richie Ashburn* 4 – Graig Nettles, Bobby Wallace*… Read more »
Hub Kid
Guest
Tiant’s and Allen’s totals in Round 124 were exceptionally high for both (particularly true for Allen, who benefited from leading early in the voting, I think). I think Tiant did pretty well in Round 123, too, but I don’t think he was anywhere near the top before then. I remember these fairly well as a frequent Tiant and Allen voter, although I don’t actually have the earlier totals to hand. I seem to recall that Kevin Brown regularly gets up to about 3rd place in COG voting, but so far has peaked there. It looks like Goslin’s votes are all… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Since nsb re-posted the Round 124 results and noted (correctly) the leaders this round, I thought I’d follow up with the latest full count after 18 ballots (as I have it), since things have moved around a bit since the last vote update. We’re about to step across the border into Thursday: the deadline for changing votes is coming up tomorrow evening (but first-time votes are validly cast through Sunday evening). 11 – Dave Winfield, =================50% (9) 6 – Bill Dahlen, Manny Ramirez* 5 – Dick Allen, Luis Tiant =================25% (5) 4 – Richie Ashburn*, Kevin Brown, Bobby Wallace*, Graig… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest
Time to vote. Tiant, Ashburn, Nettles I looked very closely at Allen this time around. And there’s no denying that he was a genuinely great talent and that his rate/stats are remarkable. But he had a 15-year career. In his first 2 full time seasons he played 160+ games. In the rest of his career he had 2 seasons with more than 150 games and 2 with more than 140 games. His next high was 128 games and in 8 seasons he didn’t play in at least 40 of his teams games, about one-quarter of the season (considerably less than… Read more »
Andy
Guest

Convincing arguments can be made for all of the holdovers, but these are my three selections:
Kevin Brown
Graig Nettles
Bill Dahlen

mosc
Guest

Looking at the names, I would have guessed Nettles would be running away with this. His average and OPS+ are held down a good bit by his poor batting line in his 40s. Just lobbing off his advanced age restores a pretty healthy 113 OPS+. We’ve also had discussions previously about how the older defensive metrics tend to drift everyone towards the norm more than recent versions (meaning Nettles is probably a bit under-sold on defense).

Josh Davis
Guest

Dave Winfield
Manny Ramirez
Kevin Brown

opal611
Guest

For the 1973 Part 1 election, I’m voting for:

-Manny Ramirez
-Dave Winfield
-Luis Tiant

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Pettitte
-Brown
-Ashburn
-Nettles
-Allen
-Wallace
-Dahlen

Thanks!

Dave Humbert
Guest

Glad I found my way back to COG voting after missing it last winter. EPM’s post about early shortstops and defense reinforces my support for the geezers on the ballot a while back, and I’ll bolster the defensive whiz at the hot corner too.

Wallace, Dahlen, Nettles

e pluribus munu
Guest

Here’s a tabulation after 23 votes (Dave Humbert’s being the most recent):

13 – Dave Winfield,
=================50% (11)
8 – Bill Dahlen, Manny Ramirez*
7 – Graig Nettles, Luis Tiant
6 – Kevin Brown
=================25% (6)
5 – Dick Allen, Richie Ashburn*, Bobby Wallace*,
3 – Andy Pettitte*
=================10% (3)
1 – Mike Cameron*, Bartolo Colon*

Voters; Jeff Harris, Doug, mosc, JEV, Steven, T-Bone, Hub Kid, Voomo, epm, David Horwich, Jeff B., Paul E, Doom, Thickie, Mike L, Scary, Brent, dr. remulak, Hartvig, Andy, Josh, opal, Dave Humbert

Please let me know if you see a vote I’ve missed.

no statistician but
Guest
It appears that Winfield’s got a lock on this one. “To my amazement,” I was about to add, but upon looking again at his competition, the renewed realization came to me that he’s really no better and no worse than most of the other’s receiving 4 or more votes. There are positives and negatives involved in evaluating his career, and I don’t find the balance between them as positive as I do for several others on the ballot, but I am obviously in the minority. He came back from a potential career ending herniated disc to put up some productive… Read more »
Chris C
Guest

Oooh a new vote. I’m glad I didn’t miss it.

My vote
————
Ramirez
Allen
Ashburn

Brendan Bingham
Guest

Vote:
Bobby Wallace
Graig Nettles
Dick Allen

e pluribus munu
Guest

As we move into the home stretch with 25 votes in (Brendon’s being the latest), here is the current tabulation, as I have it:

13 – Dave Winfield
=================50% (13)
9 – Manny Ramirez*
8 – Bill Dahlen, Graig Nettles
7 – Dick Allen, Luis Tiant
=================25% (7)
6 – Richie Ashburn*, Kevin Brown, Bobby Wallace*
3 – Andy Pettitte*
=================10% (3)
1 – Mike Cameron*, Bartolo Colon*

The voting deadline is now just 12 hours away.

CursedClevelander
Guest

In a vote that should surprise no one who remembers my preferences, I’ll go with:

K. Brown
Manny
Nettles

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