NL Post-Season Preview

Just a handful of games remaining, and five division winners are confirmed, and the sixth nearly so. The NL wildcard teams are also essentially confirmed, but a different story in the AL with three teams chasing two spots, and none of them close to being safe and dry. This post looks at the NL contenders, with its AL companion to appear shortly. More after the jump.

The Braves and Dodgers are returning as division champs, the latter for the 7th consecutive season. Only the Braves have had a longer run of division titles than LA, with 11 straight for Atlanta from 1995 to 2005 (or 14 straight from 1991, excluding the aborted 1994 season). Like LA in this decade, those Braves teams found it hard to convert division titles into World Series wins, doing so only once.

For the Cardinals, it’s their first division title and first post-season appearance since 2015. That year, the Redbirds made the post-season for the twelfth time in sixteen years, a run that included four pennants and two World Series titles.

The Nationals and Brewers will go one round for the chance to join the division leaders in the division series round. It will be the first wild-card game for both franchises. The Brewers last season extended the Dodgers to the limit in the NLCS, while the Nats have four previous NLDS appearances (the last two seasons ago), but have failed to win any of them.

The Dodgers and Nationals look to have the edge in starting pitching over the others, with the Braves and Cardinals next, and the Brewers bringing up the rear. Washington and LA both have three qualified starters with .500 or better records and 120 ERA+ (and the Nats may have a fourth by season’s end), the Braves and Cards have two, while the Brewers will likely have no qualified starters, period. While it may be fashionable these days to suppose that starting pitching isn’t that important in the post-season, having three reliable starters who give you a good chance to win still works really well in the post-season, not least because a more rested relief corps is nearly always more effective.

Among relievers, the Cards look solid, and the Dodgers, Brewers and Braves appear sound. That leaves the Nats, with just about the worst relief corps in baseball; luckily for Washington, they use their relievers less than any other team, almost 200 innings less than the Brewers who have the busiest relievers of the NL post-season qualifiers. The Cardinals relief corps will need to be good to help out young starters in their first post-season. Getting length from their starters will be key for the Dodgers and Braves, to help mitigate vulnerabilities in capable but not stellar relief corps. Should the Brewers make the division round, their spotty starting pitching will likely result in an overtaxed and less effective bullpen, as occurred in last season’s playoffs.

Dodger pitchers have been equally effective against left-handed and right-handed batters, posting identical 3.44 ERAs in these splits, in each case the best in baseball this season. The other four teams fare better against right-handed batters, especially the Brewers. The Cardinals are notably lacking in left-handed pitching, both in their rotation and in the bullpen, a vulnerability likely to be exposed come October.

On offense, the Dodgers, Braves and Nats rank 1-2-3 in the NL in runs scored, but the edge has to go to LA with better balance from both sides of the plate, more patient hitters (Dodgers rank third in most walks and third in fewest strikeouts), and a wealth of post-season experience. Starting games, all the teams are tightly bunched near the top in OPS for innings 1-3, except the Cardinals who are near the bottom. In innings 4-6, the Dodgers maintain their placement near the top while the others are around the middle third of teams. At the end of games, the Dodgers and Braves have the two highest team OPS scores in innings 7-9, with the Nationals not too far behind, and the Brewers and Cards further back.

To beat the Braves and Brewers, their opponents need to take an early lead; when ahead after 5 innings, both teams have a .920+ winning percentage, notably higher than the other three, including 100 points higher than the Dodgers. An early lead may not be safe against LA which has a .358 winning percentage when trailing after 5 innings, with the Cards and Braves cards at .267 and .233 respectively, and the others are under .200. The Nats and Brewers really can’t afford to fall behind at all; both have an average winning percentage under .175 when trailing after each of the 1st through 8th innings.

Head-to-head matchups, and other splits, look like this:

vs.ATLLADMILSTLWSNTotal.500+ TeamsSeptember
ATL2-43-34-211-820-170.5650.650
LAD4-24-33-44-315-120.5840.667
MIL3-33-49-104-219-190.5450.810
STL2-44-310-95-221-180.5190.652
WSN8-113-42-42-515-240.4610.476

Records during September are a good barometer for making the playoffs, with 58% of playoff teams having a .600 or better September record, and only 10% having a losing record for the month. The numbers are similar though less pronounced for pennant winners; in the divisional era since 1969, 53% of pennant winners played .600 ball in September, and only 13% had a losing record. If the Brewers make it into the division round, the risk is their September juggernaut starts to slow (it’s really tough to maintain anything like an .800 winning percentage for more than a month), as was the case with the Indians in 2017.

So, who’s going to win in the senior circuit? My money would be on the Dodgers and Braves meeting in the NLCS, with LA taking the title on the strength of depth and experience. So, who do you like?

127 thoughts on “NL Post-Season Preview

  1. Bob Eno (epm)

    Well, even though they’ve been playing their home games away in recent years, Brooklyn seems to be the class of the league, and I’d have to pick them emerging at the end of the fray. Especially if the Yankees clean up in the AL, destiny suggests the Dodgers are the premier team to lose the Series to them.

    But it does concern me that the Dodger starting three has seemed awfully wobbly over recent weeks, and ace Kershaw generally has October wobbles no matter what.

    Reply
    1. Mike L

      I’d be perfectly fine with a Bums-Yankees WS. I doubt Yankees are getting past Houston, but one can hope. The thing about the Yankees’ “Rotation” is that with just about any of them, you can find yourself down 5-0 by the 2nd inning.

      Reply
      1. Paul E

        Agreed on the Astros….the way Verlander, Cole, and Greinke have pitched in September, it will be interesting to see if anybody puts up much of a battle. I realize this is the NL playoff review portion, and I hate to say it, but with Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Brantley, the new guy Alvarez, and Gurriel, they’re the 1936-1939 Yankees FCS.

        Reply
  2. Bob Eno (epm)

    Pete Alonso now has 53 HR, a new rookie record, eclipsing the hoary record old timers will recall was set by Aaron Judge back in ’17.

    Obviously, there’s a general explanation for why we’re seeing some high individual HR totals these days, but why rookies, and why rookies who really weren’t superheroes in the Minors? The same thing was true of McGwire when he set the ancient standard of 49 in his 1987 rookie season (also a year of league HR records).

    McGwire’s rookie explosion was followed by some less impressive seasons, moving down to his dismal 1991 season, which could have ended his career had he not begun using Miracle Gro. Judge was a fine prospect, but nothing like his 52 HR debut was predictable. He too has followed that rookie appearance with a couple of less spectacular seasons. The jury’s out on whether he can return to form in an injury-free season.

    Now here we have Alonso, the rawest rookie of the bunch. Not a first-round pick, but close; he did well in AAA the latter part of last year, but not amazing. He steps into the Majors and his slash line is virtually identical to his AAA line last year, and all these HRs! I really don’t know much about him beyond his stats and the hype around the HR Derby. Can we predict that his coming seasons are going to be disappointments too?

    Reply
    1. Voomo

      A bit harsh on Judge, I’d say. Has averaged 150 OPS+ over the last two years. Down from 170, sure, but he’s also vastly higher rated on Defense.

      Here is his Plate Appearances per WAR (not including today’s finale, where he HRed)

      2017 … 83.7
      2018 … 90.5
      2019 … 83.8

      Reply
      1. Bob Eno (epm)

        Not sayin’ Judge hasn’t been good, but he hasn’t been the Judge we saw in ’17, largely because of injuries. McGwire’s three seasons after his debut were also fine: his OPS+ was down 28 from his rookie level, but still good. But the explosiveness of the rookie year didn’t come back by natural means. Judge, by comparison, is down 25 from ’17 over the 2018-19 seasons.

        I’m really not talking about defense at all, so for Judge the relevant figure would be oWAR/PA:

        2017 … 94.2
        2018 … 127.7
        2019 … 134.5 (not counting today’s game)

        Reply
    2. Paul E

      Bob,
      As far as age 24 seasons, Alonso’s season compares favorably with Adam Dunn’s 2004. OPS+ of 148 for Pete versus Dunn’s 147 and, if you add TB, HBP, and BB, it’s 441 for Alonso versus 436 for the Big Donkey. As far as G and PA, it’s 161 G for both and 693 PAs for Alonso versus 681 for Dunn.
      But, I have to believe the Mets’ front office might be disappointed if Alonso doesn’t cut down on his strikeouts and turns out be Adam Dunn for the next 10 years. I’m not saying Dunn was horrible but they have to be expecting big things from this guy, no?

      Reply
      1. Bob Eno (epm)

        What you write is true, Paul, but, of course, Dunn was far from a rookie; he was in his fourth season. It’s the rookietude of McGwire, Judge, and Alonso that sets them apart.

        I believe that the list of rookies who have exceeded 40 HR reads as follows:

        Alonso 53
        Judge 52
        McGwire 49

        These guys are so far ahead of the pack that they seem can’t miss superstars; after all, rookies are expected to get better, although not all do (see Walt Dropo). Judge may yet become a superstar, but he’s stalled, and after three seasons, his first still stands alone. McGwire became a superstar, but only after a near-career-death experience brought him to the tent of Dr. Good and replaced his natural career with a prosthetic one — his amazing rookie season, breaking the rookie HR record by ten, is far and away the pinnacle of his real career.

        So I think it’s natural to wonder whether Alonso can escape this pattern next year or, perhaps, after a sophomore slump. After all, these guys are unicorns: how did they so outperform all other future sluggers as rookies?

        Reply
        1. Vooomo

          Could be as simple as pitchers changed their approach to Judge after he proved himself.
          Rookies are going to get challenged.

          And that monster rookie season was a tale of two halves.
          .329 / .448 / .691 / 1.139
          .228 / .391 / .548 / .939

          Nobody could be expected to sustain a 1.139 OPS at any point in their career.
          Judge’s second half in 2017 is in line with what he has done since.

          Reply
          1. Bob Eno (epm)

            Yeah, it’s different with Alonso: his two halves are much better balanced:

            .277/.367/.625/.992 27 HR
            .243/.349/.542/.891 26 HR

            But Judge’s story isn’t quite that simple either. His second half was itself composed of two parts:

            Post-AS through August (44 G): .179/.346/.344/.690 7 HR
            September (27 G)………………….: .311/.463/.889/1.352 15 HR

            So I think the pitchers really didn’t figure Judge out so much as that he went into a slump and then pulled out of it strong. (Alonso also went into a July tailspin after the All-Star break, but pulled out in August.)

        2. Paul E

          Bob,
          While Dunn was far from a rookie, perhaps Pete, Judge, and McGwire would have been called up earlier if they were deemed capable. Perhaps that’s why they are not “can’t miss superstars”? Frank Robinson tied Berger’s record at age 20 and had a far greater career than Berger or most of the guys that were called up at a greater age. The list of guys debuting at 19 or 20 includes Mays, Aaron, Cobb, Mantle, Williams, Trout, Mel Ott, Ruth, Foxx, etc…When comparing future production (and promise), Bill James made a point (around 1984) that Julio Franco had a far greater and more promising future than Kittle of the CWS because of his lesser age. Probably a bad example since Franco was 3 years older than his August 1961 birth certificate but, throughout the piece, he mentions how the younger the rookie, the greater the future production. After all, everyone’s production is a bell curve. Por ejemplo: Whose future would you take as a GM: Juan Soto or Rhys Hoskins? Ozzie Albies or Cesar Hernandez?
          But, back to your question, what separates these three is an AVERAGE size of 6’5″ and 250# ! Williams, DiMaggio, Cobb, were all physically superior to their peers. But, these three are not exactly young as rookies – Alonso 24, McGwire 23, and Judge 25. But, I would guess that Alonso’s career arc is going to play out more like Adam Dunn than Jimmie Foxx ( a major contributor at a young age ) and, despite his athleticism, Judge’s biggest challenge will be to stay on the field. If Judge can play 135 – 145 games/season and approach 600 plate appearances, between the extra base power and the BB’s, even while batting .260, he should contribute 5 WAR annually……until the bell curve calls him downward.
          But, all in all, I have to imagine that it’s tough to manage a 6’5″ , 250# body for 7 months of athletic competition at the highest level.

          Reply
          1. Bob Eno (epm)

            You’re right, Paul, that all things being equal, the kid who comes up younger has the brighter prospects. But all things are rarely equal, as the comparisons between Soto & Hoskins, Albies & Hernandez suggest. For example, Albies came up younger, but, on the record, he’s simply a better ballplayer. Hernandez didn’t make it Triple-A until his sixth season, and 10 WAR after 800+ G puts him far away from Albies or our three guys.

            But Judge spent only three years in the Minors, total, while Alonso spent just over two. These guys played college ball, which is the main delay in their careers. I think it’s hard to assess how Bill James’s formula plays out if you add the factor of college ball–his general theory suggests college ball is always a big mistake, but that’s clearly not the case.

            Look at some recent comparable players, in terms of age and high HR seasons. Giancarlo Stanton came up at age 20; he first hit HR at a Judge/Alonso rate at age 27. A-Rod came up at 18; he first hit 40 HR at age 22 and didn’t get up to our guys’ level till 25. Jr. comes up at 18, hits 45 at age 23 and gets up to our guys’ level at age 26. Harper came up at 19, but his HR high is still only 42 at age 22. Alonso hit 53 HR at age 24; only Jimmie Foxx hit as many or more in a season age 24 or less, and by that time he’d been around so long he’d already played as a starter in three World Series.

            Of course, there are more HR overall than ever before, but McGwire, Judge, and Alonso all hit more HR than anyone in their leagues during their rookie seasons (and Alonzo hit four more than anyone else in the Majors), so their accomplishment stands in both relative and absolute terms. If they weren’t all that promising, how could they do that? Yet it’s true, I think, that no one saw Mantle or Mays in any of these guys. None the less, in their initial seasons, they slugged in prime Mantle/Mays territory. No one else has ever come close to that.

            I think your point about size is good, but applies mainly to Judge (McGwire came up 6’5″, but very slender; Alonso’s bulked up, in the manner of contemporary players, but he’s only 6’3″; not much above average these days).

            Well, we haven’t had one of these wonky arguments in a while. It’s fun, but in fact the McGwire, Judge, Alonso grouping won’t really become interesting until we get further into Judge and Alonso’s careers to see how their debuts pan out against their mature seasons, so my whole premise is a bit premature, and I think your good counter-points show that.

          2. Paul E

            Bob,
            FWIW, Judge’s 171 OPS+ is first (1901-present) amongst 25 year old ROOKIES ahead of Oliva, Minoso, Cuyler and 24th overall among all players regardless of rookie status. Pete’s 148 OPS+ is 58th overall amongst 24 year olds and 5th among rookies between Piazza (153) and Salmpon (143) in 1993. Pete hits the 53 bombs but those two guys hit .300 with significant power. Pete batted .260. Piazza struck out 86 times; Pete 183. Certainly a different approach, in general, nowadays

          3. Bob Eno (epm)

            All correct, Paul. I actually don’t predict a long and productive career for Alonso. I’m quite suspicious that he’s more than a one-dimensional player. But in that one dimension he did something truly spectacular, which no one else has done, with only two others coming anywhere close. That’s the dimension I’m interested in.

          4. Paul E

            Barring injury, I believe Alonso will have a better career than Ryan Howard but not too disimilar. McGwire is a bad comp because of the steroids.
            I’m overstating the obvious but, Judge is a better all-around player than all of them but he has to stay on the field and prove he is that kind of talent from 2017

  3. Doug

    Evidently, I was premature in awarding the Central title to the Cards. They’re sending Jack Flaherty (0.97 ERA since the ASG, and the same in Sept) to the hill today to try to avoid a game 163. Wouldn’t be available again until game 2 or 3 of the division series, but absolutely the right call in using him today to make sure they get to that round.

    Reply
    1. Bob Eno (epm)

      More precisely, perhaps, for the first time since 1878. (I read your post as saying that this had happened in 1901 and thought, Surely not!

      Reply
      1. Richard Chester

        Sorry for the confusion but I don’t like to combine 19th century stats with those of the 20th and 21st centuries. There are too many differences. In the future I will clarify my comments. I meant to say for the time period 1901-2019, the year 2019 was first time no player had more than 10 triples.

        Reply
      2. Doug Post author

        Actually, excl. FL seasons, 1901 had the most players over 10 triples, with 40. First season under/Last season at or over:
        20 players: 1906/1936
        15 players: 1918/1940
        10 players: 1934/1979
        5 players: 1946/2011

        Reply
  4. Doug

    There were 14 teams this season with 10 or more players having 10+ HR. There were only 22 such teams before 2019, all of them since 1998. First teams with:
    14 such players: 2019 Yankees
    13: 2019 Yankees/Blue Jays
    12: 2018 Yankees
    11: 2004 Tigers
    10: 1998 Yankees/Orioles
    9: 1952 Giants
    8: 1939 Yankees
    7: 1936 Yankees
    6: 1925 Browns
    5: 1922 Phillies

    Reply
  5. Voomo

    Highest WAR with at least 20 decisions and a winning percentage of .150 or lower:

    2.3 … Spencer Turnbull (2019, 3-17)
    1.2 … Ben Cantwell (4-25)
    1.2 … Don Larsen (3-21)
    0.5 … Jack Nabors (1-20)

    Reply
    1. Doug

      Highest W-L% (20+ decisions):
      under 2 WAR: .818 (18-4), Domingo German 2019 (1.9)
      under 1 WAR: .762 (16-5), Tommy Byrne 1955 (0.7)
      under 0 WAR: .750 (15-5), Chuck Dobson 1971 (-0.1)
      under -1 WAR: .700 (14-6), Byron Houck 1913 (-1.2)

      Reply
  6. Richard Chester

    This is way off-topic but I am posting a comment of mine that I posted on Twitter but got little reaction. Given the work I did on this I do not want it to go unnoticed.

    Here it is.

    Since 1901 there have been at least six 9-inning games in which a team overcame an 11+ run deficit for a victory.
    DET on 6/18/1911 (12 run deficit)
    CLE on 6/15/1925 (12)
    SLB on 6/17/1936 (11)
    BOS on 8/28/1950 (11)
    SLN on 6/15/1952 (11)
    HOU on 7/18/1994 (11)

    Reply
    1. Voomo

      And how the game has changed in a quarter century. Those 94 Astros scored 15 runs in that game with only one Homer, while striking out just three times.

      Reply
      1. Paul E

        ….and in that same game, the STN had 17 hits and zero walks. Pretty bizarre – I imagine that hasn’t happened often in a 9-inning game

        Reply
        1. Paul E

          sorry, it’s (17 H, 0 BB) actually happened 31 times since 1908 ! Golllollleee, sirprise, surprise, surprise…

          Reply
    2. Mike L

      Richard, I liked it on twitter. I don’t necessarily think that will raise your profile enough so that MLB will take you on as an influencer, hawking baseball products, but, since you are retired….

      Reply
    3. Richard Chester

      By googling I verified that my results are correct (at least for the 12 run deficit games). I had created a spreadsheet using data from retrosheet gamelogs. Turns out there is also an 11-inning 12 run deficit game as the Indians defeated the Mariners 15-14 on 8/5/2001.

      Reply
  7. Doug

    Juan Soto’s 8th inning single that provided the margin of victory for the Nats on Tuesday yielded a .582 WPA, fourth highest in the post-season for any 2-out bases-loaded single, and highest for any such hit before the 9th inning.

    Now that the Nats have made the division round, their long suit in starting pitching should play well. But, probably not enough to overcome their Achilles heel of a bullpen.

    Reply
  8. Josh Davis

    Nice post, Doug. My (NL) money would be on the Dodgers as well, though I don’t see anyone beating the Astros in the WS this year. Houston’s 2019 staff:
    Verlander: 7.8 WAR
    Cole: 6.8 WAR
    Greinke: 6.4 WAR

    Has there ever been another team with three 6+ WAR starters? Maybe someone whose more adept with Baseball Reference can answer…

    Reply
    1. Richard Chester

      The 2017 Nats (Gonzalez, Scherzer and Strasburg) and 2011 Phils (Halladay, Hamels and Lee) did it. That’s for pitchers with at least 95% of games as a starter from 1901 to date.

      Reply
    2. Doug

      Using a less demanding standard for starting pitching (60% of games) adds the 1925 Reds (Pete Donohue, Dolf Luque, Eppa Rixey) and 1913 White Sox (Eddie Cicotte, Reb Russell, Jim Scott). The Chicago trio each topped 7 WAR, led by Russell with 8.9 WAR in his rookie season (only Mark Fidrych with 9.6 WAR in 1976 has since topped that mark among rookies).

      Reply
  9. Tom

    Completely off-topic.

    The Dodgers went 57/67 in stolen base attempts, an 85% success rate.
    Cody Bellinger went 15/20.
    No other Dodger got caught more than once.

    Reply
    1. Doug

      The 1958 Braves and 2010 Red Sox are the only other teams to have only one player with more than one CS. No team has had none.

      Reply
  10. Doug

    Before Wednesday’s AL Wild Card, these were the W-L records for teams in an elimination game using a starting pitcher making his post-season debut.
    LH starter: 15-4
    RH starter: 19-34

    That dominance for lefties is probably not why the A’s started Manaea but, like just about everything the A’s have tried in elimination games, it didn’t work out for them, again. Incidentally, having a starter make his post-season debut in a WC game has become something of a tradition; among 32 starters in the 16 WC games to date, 11 of them were making their post-season debuts, including two games with both starters make their debuts.

    Incidentally, the graphic shown on the ESPN telecast of the A’s losing 8 straight elimination games was not correct. In fact, they A’s have now lost 15 straight post-season series (going back to 1975) in which they faced elimination, but not every series in that period nor every elimination game (they are 6-15 in series, and 4-15 in elimination games). The most consecutive losses in elimination games is 9 (and counting) by the Indians, going back to the 1997 World Series.

    Reply
  11. Doug

    A’s teammates Matt Chapman and Matt Olson this season recorded identical totals of 36 HR and 91 RBI.

    Quiz: which other teammates with the same first name recorded identical HR and RBI totals in 400+ PA seasons?

    Reply
      1. Paul E

        Richard from Scotland Yard does it again! Immediately I was thinking of all these tandems who hit a ton of homers. However, obviously, it’s more likely to happen ath the lower end of the scale. Allen hit 33 (of 100) Philadelphia home runs that year. I wonder how often that may have happened (33%+) in the expansion era or from 1961 – 1993?

        Reply
        1. Richard Chester

          Looks like my earlier comment did not post. There have been 29 occurrences of a player hitting at least 33.0% of his team’s seasonal HR from 1961-1993. Highest percentage is 44.9% by Mike Schmidt of the Phils in 1981.

          Reply
          1. Paul E

            Thanks Richard. In 1981, Schmidt (7.7 in 107 team games) may have broken Al Rosen’s WAR standard (10.1) for 3B if not for the strike….but, the same is probably true of Brett ( 9.4 WAR in 118 G played) the prior year if not for injuries

      2. Voomo

        And yes, both of those Tonys were diminutives of the same full name of Antonio, though Gonzales’ Antonio was his middle name.

        Reply
      3. Doug Post author

        Taylor and Gonzalez almost did it two other times, in 1964 (4/46 and 4/40) and 1966 (5/40 and 6/40). Taylor holds the record of homering in 18 consecutive seasons, but never in double digits. Gonzalez reached double digits four times, including one 20 HR season.

        Reply
        1. Paul E

          Both Phillies’ mainstays of my youth – acquired from other NL organizations (Cubs / Reds)…..both Cubans. The Reds sure had a ton of outfield talent in those days (1955 – 1965)

          Reply
  12. Doug Post author

    Yandy Diaz is the 12th leadoff hitter to homer twice in a post-season game, but is the first to be removed from the game.

    Reply
    1. Paul E

      Doom,
      My condolences on the passing of the 2019 Brewers. I have to believe that Yelich would have won the M V P if not for the injury but they really surprised a lot of people coming back from his injury and finishing so strong. Tough ending in DC – ugghhh

      Reply
    2. Scary Tuna

      Doom, it’s good to see a post from you. I missed your commentary as the Brewers stormed into the playoffs with their 18-2 run. The Wisconsin expatriate sitting by me in our office filled some of the void with his daily Brewers banter, but he didn’t bring quite the same knowledge and enthusiasm you did in your posts last September. Was sad to see their season end so abruptly the other night. The idea of a Brewers-Twins post-season clash was fun to entertain for a few weeks, anyway.

      Reply
  13. Doug

    Two 35 year-old starting catchers in the Cards/Braves series opener. Only the second time to start a series (Dodgers/Cubs in 2016).

    Keuchel and McCann form a post-season battery for a second team. Others to do it include Carlton and McCarver, Lackey and Ross, Lester and Ross, Kuroda and Martin. Any others?

    Reply
    1. Richard Chester

      Post-season battery for a second team: Wally Schang/Carl Mays and Wally Schang/Bullet Joe Bush for the Red Sox and Yankees.

      Reply
      1. Doug Post author

        Some others from the early days:
        – Bob Shawkey/Wally Schang – Yankees and A’s
        – Paul Derringer/Jimmie Wilson – Cards and Reds
        – Rube Marquard/Chief Meyers – Dodgers and Giants
        – Slim Sallee/Bill Rariden – Reds and Giants

        I see that Shawkey has the last of only three seasons with 20 CG and 20 GF (the other two are both HOFers).

        Reply
        1. Richard Chester

          Bill Rariden is 1 of 3 players with 0 strikeouts with 100+ PA (since 1901) in a season. The other 2 are record holder Lloyd Waner (234 PA in 1941) and P Johnny Sain.

          Reply
      2. Doug Post author

        Looks like A.J. Burnett and Russell Martin (Yankees and Pirates) is the only other two team starting battery.

        Reply
  14. Doug

    Carlos Martinez on Thursday became the first pitcher to finish and win a post-season game with a relief appearance of 2 IP or less while allowing 3 ER or more. Since 1908, that’s been done only 10 times in the regular season by a visiting pitcher.

    Reply
  15. Doug

    Highest career post-season OPS (min. 40 PA, active players italicized)
    1. 1.287 – Babe Ruth (159 PA)
    2. 1.269 – Jorge Soler (41 PA)
    3. 1.215 – Willie Aikens (49 PA)
    4. 1.214 – Lou Gehrig (150 PA)
    5. 1.207 – Bobby Brown (46 PA)
    6. 1.199 – Carlos Delgado (43 PA)
    7. 1.192 – Paul Goldschmidt (41 PA)
    8. 1.154 – Troy Glaus (88 PA)
    9. 1.138 – Chris Young (60 PA)
    10. 1.131 – Sean Casey (41 PA)

    Reply
    1. Paul E

      Doug,
      Whattaya got against Colby “Neckbeard” Rasmus”? Here’s the list for 35+ PA’s. Is it possible Ruth dropped due to PH appearances or starting pitcher appearances? This info is off of baseball-reference “MLB Playoffs” tab:
      1. Colby Rasmus…… 1.610….. 35 PA
      2. Jorge Soler…. 1.269….. 41 PA
      3. Willie Aikens. 1.215….. 49 PA
      4. Lou Gehrig… 1.214….. 150 PA
      5. Babe Ruth…. 1.214….. 167 PA
      6. Bobby Brown……. 1.207….. 46 PA
      7. Carlos Delgado…. 1.199….. 43 PA
      8. Paul Goldschmidt1.192….. 41 PA
      9. Ryan Ludwick…… 1.167….. 39 PA
      10. Troy Glaus…. 1.154…… 88 PA

      Reply
      1. Doug

        I think your numbers are the right ones. I was using the P-I Game Finder and excluded pitchers just to limit the number of players I would need to sort. But, of course, that would affect Ruth’s numbers. My mistake.

        Reply
        1. Paul E

          Doug
          I only “checked” since I could have sworn Carlos Ivan Beltran had to be on this list with all his October raking….turns out list last few postseasons (ages 38-40) took him off the top 10

          Reply
  16. CursedClevelander

    Mitch Garver was batting lead off today. Back in 2010, when John Jaso led off for the Rays, he was only.the 3rd catcher to do so in the postseason after Jason Kendall and Roger Bresnahan. Not sure if anyone did from 2011 to 2018

    Reply
    1. Doug

      No starting catcher batted leadoff from 2011 to 2018, but 11 catchers have entered a game in the leadoff position (Chris Widger did it three times), most recently Yasmani Grandal in the 2018 NLCS, and also including current Rays manager Kevin Cash, playing for Boston against the Rays in the 2008 ALCS.

      Reply
  17. Doug

    Mike Soroka on Sunday became the youngest pitcher since Steve Avery in 1991 to make his post-season debut with a start of 7+ IP allowing one run or none. I’m curious how the 16 year age difference between Soroka and Adam Wainwright ranks among pitchers both making such a post-season start, but don’t have the answer yet.

    Reply
    1. Paul E

      Jack Quinn (46 y.o.) vs. Charlie Root (29) on October 12, 1929 has to be one of a few. In this case, Quinn is given a DoB of 7/1/1883 (in Outer Slovenia in somewhere in Eastern Europe ?) with July 1 being the cutoff for b-r.

      Reply
    2. Paul E

      one last one – Kenny Rogers (41) versus Rich Harden (24) in the 2006 A L C S.
      Wouldn’t know how to search for more on the PI. Spreadsheet stuff, I guess ?

      Reply
    3. Doug Post author

      Here are the results.
      – Largest starter age difference: 21 years, 65 days between Jamie Moyer and Ubaldo Jimenez, NLDS Gm 3, Oct 6, 2007
      – Largest starter age difference, both with 7+ IP: 17 years, 289 days between Nolan Ryan (9 IP) and Dwight Gooden (10 IP), NLCS Gm 5, Oct 14, 1986
      – Largest starter age difference, both with CG: 16 years, 193 days between Eddie Plank (loss) and Bill James (shutout), WS Gm 2, Oct 10, 1914
      – Smallest starter age difference: 2 days between Edinson Volquez and Marco Estrada, ALCS Gm 1/5, Oct 16/21, 2015
      – Oldest Starter: Jack Quinn, 46 years, 103 days, WS Gm 4, Oct 12, 1929
      – Oldest Starter with 7+ IP: Rogers Clemens (42.073), 7 IP, NLCS Gm 3, Oct 16, 2004
      – Oldest Starter with CG: Pete Alexander (39.225), WS Gm 6, Oct 9, 1926
      – Youngest Starter: Julio Urias, 20 years, 68 days, NLCS Gm 4, Oct 19, 2016
      – Youngest Starter with 7+ IP: Bret Saberhagen (20.175), 8 IP, ALCS Gm 2, Oct 3, 1984
      – Youngest Starter with CG: Bullet Joe Bush (20.316). WS Gm 3, Oct 9, 1913
      – Greatest starter combined age: 84 years, 356 days, Kenny Rogers (41.330) vs. Randy Johnson (43.026), ALDS Gm 3, Oct 6, 2006
      – Greatest starter combined age, both with 7+ IP: 75 years, 230 days, Urban Shocker (36.011) vs. Pete Alexander (39.219), WS Gm 2, Oct 3, 1926
      – Greatest starter combined age, both with CG, 72 years, 319 days, Eddie Lopat (35.102) vs. Preacher Roe (37.217), WS Gm 2, Oct 1, 1953
      – Smallest starter combined age: 43 years, 204 days, Dontrelle Willis (21.265) vs. Jerome Williams (21.304), NLDS Gm 4, Oct 4, 2003
      – Smallest starter combined age, both with 7+ IP: 46 years, 135 days, Bret Saberhagen (20.175) vs. Dan Petry (25.325), ALCS Gm 2, Oct 3, 1984
      – Smallest starter combined age, both with CG: 46 years, 225 days, Christy Mathewson (25.063) vs. Chief Bender (21.162), WS Gm 5, Oct 14, 1905
      – Both starters having same birthday: Josh Tomlin vs. J.A. Happ, ALCS Gm 2, Oct 15, 2016 (3 days before their birthday)

      Wanwright/Soroka rank 17th in age difference, and 3rd in age difference with both starters going 7+ IP.

      Reply
      1. Paul E

        Doug,
        Thanks for digging up this info. I vaguely recall Ken Brett pitching in the 1967 WS at a very young age….is this the youngest post-season appearance by any pitcher – starter or reliever?

        Reply
        1. Doug

          Just starters.

          Brett is still the youngest pitcher to appear, and Quinn the oldest, the year after the start noted above.

          Reply
  18. Paul E

    Charlie Morton went 5 innings last night (again) and came away with his 2nd postseason W for 2019. Here’s Charlie’s last three regular seasons all-time, based on W-L%, age 33-35, 60+ decisions:

    1…Sal Maglie…. .766…77…1950-1952…59-18
    2…Morton…….. .738…61…2017-2019…45-16
    3…Preacher Roe.. .737…76…1949-1951…56-20
    4…Whitey Ford… .734…79…1962-1964…58-21
    5…Sam Leever…. .727…77…1905-1907…56-21
    6…Jamie Moyer… .726…62…1996-1998…45-17
    7…Eddie Lopat… .723…65…1951-1953…47-18
    8…Carl Hubbell.. .718…85…1936-1938…61-24
    9…Whit Wyatt…. .714…77…1941-1943…55-22
    10..Joe McGinnity. .703..118…1904-1906…83-35

    Reply
      1. Paul E

        Morton was threatening to retire last offseason before signing with Tampa. I imagine he won’t be approaching Moyer’s additional 165 wins. I believe McGinnity pitched in the minors till his arm nearly fell off ( 48 y. o. ? )

        Reply
        1. Doug

          Actually, McGinnity pitched almost 500 innings in the minors after age 50, incl. 89 innings (6-7, 4.01) in his final season at age 54 (fittingly, his last team was the Dubuque “Ironmen” of the Mississippi Valley League).

          Reply
  19. Doug

    Ronald Acuna Jr. had four hits on Monday, including two XBH, but did not score or drive in a run. First time in the post-season.

    Reply
  20. Doug Post author

    Yadier Molina’s two RBIs on Monday each garnered over 0.15 WPA. Just the 16th time a player has had two such single RBI events when trailing or tied in a post-season game, and only the 6th time in an elimination game. Five of those six staved off elimination (the sixth was Bryce Harper in game 4 of the 2014 NLDS against the Giants).

    Reply
  21. Bob Eno (epm)

    The outcome of the NLDS has me thinking back to 1969, when the division series were first devised. I was distraught then (I think it’s easier to be distraught when you’re younger) because the governing principles of the Pennant and World Series had been discarded. Until that time, pennants were always straight-up competitions among league teams who played perfectly balanced schedules. It took 154 / 162 games to determine which team was superior, but the outcome always guaranteed that the winning team was the one who had fought to the best record, and the World Series was simply a battle of championship teams.

    Once the divisions and the “post-season” were created, this was no longer the case. The best record over the longest season in major league sports now just buys you a ticket to a mini-season, along with four other teams, two of which have equal status with the regular season champion, even if, as in the case of this year’s NDLS, one finished with a record 15 GB the leader. The most egregious results, of course, were the 1973 Mets, who won a pennant and went to the Series on the strength of a regular season record three games over .500, and the 2001 Mariners, who did not go to the Series despite a regular-season dominant 116 wins, because they lost a short series to a team that finished 21 games behind them.

    I’m sure the sense of randomness that the “new” format generates is exciting and without downsides to fans whose baseball experience began after 1968. But for those who have outlived their social usefulness, there seems something illegitimate about pennants and World Series’ won on the basis of records inferior in a league context. Since I’m a National League fan, I’ll be rooting for the Cardinals or Nationals in the World Series, even if the AL is represented by Houston, a “natural” pennant winner (though with the unbalanced nature of schedules and inter-league play, who knows what counts as a truly legitimate pennant-winning team anymore). But I’m not likely to be rooting hard enough to bother to actually watch more than a final inning or two, and the loss of what were once crystal-clear principles of championship is a major part of the reason.

    Reply
    1. Paul E

      Bob,
      Let’s not forget those 1987 Minnesota Twins (5th best record in the AL; best in West). I grew up in the 60’s and 70’s and was OK with two divisions and the unbalanced (5 x 18 and 6 x 12) regular season schedule since teams, at least, played their division rivals in September. I believe the ’83 Dodgers beat the Phillies 11 out of 12 in the regular season and lost in the NLCS – almost as egregious as the ’87 Twins.
      But, it’s a professional sport and they’re beholden to the almighty dollar more and more each year. I remember my father ranting at the TV because Bowie Kuhn was wearing a suit with about four layers of clothing (freezing his rear end off) watching a “night” World Series game (1975 ?). The horse is long out of the barn on this one. The pursuit of profit wins every time.
      BTW, as teams continue to tank and eventually build for championship contention “down the road”, I believe we’re going to see more and more of the better teams dominating the non-contenders to the point that four 100-win teams per season (like 2019) is commonplace. By the same token, if Glasnow and Morton outduel Cole and Verlander and/or Greinke 1-0 or 2-1, who are we (mere spectators) to say “That ain’t right”? Insisting that the TBR and their 96 wins don’t deserve to play in the next round is almost the equivalent of throwing away the “actual” results of an election in a banana republic….or a Western democracy, for that matter. At least the Rays will have won on the field………….

      Reply
      1. Bob Eno (epm)

        We’re thinking alike on this one, Paul. I thought the Twins win was a shame. And there was an extra dimension to my disappointment.

        One of the first Series I recall was, for me, the peak of the Lost Golden Age, when Brooklyn broke their 0-7 World Series jinx in 1955. In that Series, as the newspapers stressed, the Dodgers became the first Series team to lose the initial two games and then go on to win the Series. I thought it proved the Bums were super heroes. Imagine my dismay when the hated Yankees turned the tables in ’56 and became the second team to lose the first two games and win the Series!

        Those two Series followed a pattern: the home teams won the first six games, but, when everything was on the line in their home parks, they lost the finale. I realized then that there had never been an all-home-team Series, which I thought was great, because if there were, the outcome would have been arguably the result of the random factor of which team hosted the first game (in those days the privilege alternated between the leagues each year).

        Oddly enough, the ’55 and ’56 Series were shortly followed by the ’65 Series, where the relocated Dodgers became the third team to triumph in an all-home-team-till-the-climax contest, and then came the ’71 Series, when the Pirates followed the same pattern to victory. By this point, having grown from a boy into a man, I became convinced that a Hidden Hand protected baseball by ensuring that no team would ever sneak to victory by home-park advantage alone. (No child would ever be so deluded.)

        So, naturally, when the seventh game of the 1987 Series rolled around, it was clear to me that the Cardinals had things in the bag. After all, the Cards were not only a far superior team, but the Twins’ success that season had pivoted on the horrible acoustics of the “Hubie Dome,” an indoor stadium that amplified crowd noise in such a way as to unnerve visiting teams in close, well attended games. Surely a Series could never turn on a factor so unfair!

        But it did. And my power as a prognosticator was ruined. In ’71, I’d impressed my college friends with my advance knowledge of the Pirates’s victory. But in ’87, my colleagues saw nothing but egg on my face, and my faith in Fortune’s benign protection of baseball from debasement was destroyed.

        Reply
        1. Paul E

          Bob,
          On the topic of indoor noise, how about the inability of NCCAM and NBA teams to win on the road? I believe MLB visiting teams win at a 42% clip and that is significantly higher than the NBA (and the NFL, for that matter). Four 8-team divisions without wild cards would be great with a 7-game NL/ALCS and even a 9-game WS…..except, we don’t need another two expansion teams as starting pitching is hard enough to come by as it already is.

          Reply
    2. Doug Post author

      So the Nats have now won two winner-take-all games that they trailed after 7 innings. First team to do that in the same post-season.

      Including this year’s Nats, teams trailing after 7 innings in these games are 15-95 (.136). Results by series:
      – LWC: 2-12
      – LDS: 3-31
      – LCS: 5-21
      – WS: 5-31

      Reply
    3. Mike L

      Bob, I’m with you on this. I hated the split format when it first was announced–it seemed unjust. I doubly dislike the modern Wildcard format. It bothers me immensely that a mid-80’s win team can win a one game series and then be on equal standing with teams that may have won 20 more games than they did. And I think the entire injustice is more accentuated by the current vogue for tanking. You have teams that are already weak throwing over the side everything they can to get weaker. If you were lucky enough to have the majority of your games against the tankers after trade deadline, that’s even more of an advantage. BTW, the Tigers were 25-81 over the last 4 months. In my ideal world, four eight-team divisions and a pennant and then world series. But, since that’s never going to happen, at least dump the wildcard round. Three division winners, one wildcard who plays the entire playoffs as the road team, then a five, a seven, and another seven.

      Reply
      1. Doug

        The one game WC bothered me, as well, at first. But, since a division crown is the only sure way to the real dance, a one-gamer against another WC team doesn’t strike me as too absurd, especially if the two teams are fairly close in wins. After all, the WC teams are qualifying via the back door, so either would do as well as the other to make the real post-season. Where an injustice really arises is if the two WC teams aren’t close in wins, thus making the one-game crap shoot rather unfair to the better team. Instead, to qualify for the WC game, a second WC team should perhaps need to finish within x games (maybe 5 games) of the first WC team; otherwise have only one WC team qualify.

        Reply
  22. Doug Post author

    By my reckoning, it seems the official scorer for the Braves/Cardinals finale goofed on his assignment of earned runs. He recorded only one of the 10 Cardinal runs in the first inning as unearned, that one being the run scored by Yadier Molina after he reached base on an error. However, the last of the Cardinal runs scored after two were out in the inning which, given the earlier error, should have made that last run unearned. Indeed, the B-R game log denotes this run as “Team Unearned” (whatever that means), but still logs it as an earned run against the pitcher. Can anyone shed any light on this?

    Reply
    1. Voomo

      Perhaps it’s something to with the fact that it was a Wild Pitch, thus, the Pitcher’s fault.
      Though when there is a fielding error by the Pitcher, runs that follow are unearned. But in that case the Pitcher is a Fielder, not a Pitcher.

      Reply
      1. Doug

        But, that AB would never have happened if not for the earlier error. So, how the run scores is irrelevant and any runs scoring after two outs have always been unearned. Unless something has changed in the scoring rules.

        Reply
        1. Voomo

          Here it is:

          Also, when considering when the inning would be over except for errors, relief pitchers are not relieved of responsibility by errors that were committed before they were brought into the game. This means that some runs may be considered earned for an individual relief pitcher but not for the team as a whole, so team earned runs are often less than the sum of the earned runs allowed by the individual pitchers.

          Reply
  23. Doug Post author

    Largest differences in career ERA and HR/9 between Regular and Post-Season, among 124 pitchers with 50 post-season IP (active players bolded).
    http://www.highheatstats.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Highest-Post-to-Regular-Season-ERA-Diff-min.-50-Post-IP.jpg
    http://www.highheatstats.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Highest-Post-to-Regular-Season-HR9-Diff-min.-50-Post-IP-1.jpg

    Kershaw is particularly notable on this list since he is the active career leader in these two categories for the regular season.

    Reply
        1. Hub Kid

          That’s Mariano Rivera at 2.21 and 0.70 (in 141 post season innings)- not that my guess is worth a kewpie doll or anything.

          Reply
        2. Doug

          Masahiro Tanaka is another Yankee who should make this list; he’s likely to reach the 50 post-season IP qualifier as early as this season, should the Bombers win the ALCS. After his dominating performance in game 1, Tanaka’s 1.32 post-season ERA is almost 2½ runs better than his 3.75 mark in the regular season, trailing only Earnshaw on the ERA list. Tanaka’s enjoyed similar results on the home run front, with 0.66 HR/9 in the post-season compared to 1.34 in the regular campaign, a 0.68 difference that would currently place him 3rd on the HR/9 list.

          Reply
      1. Richard Chester

        I guess we have to bear in mind that players who were active prior to 1969 had all regular season stats versus teams in their own league and all post season stats versus teams in the opposite league.

        Reply
      2. Richard Chester

        Most IP without yielding a post-season HR:
        57.2…….Mordecai Brown
        57.1…….Carl Mays
        54.2…….Eddie Plank
        52.0…….Eddie Lopat (only one entirely in the LBE.)

        Included in Lopat’s stats are 2 games (10 innings total) against the Dodgers in Ebbets Field.

        Reply
  24. Doug Post author

    Congrats to the Astros on their third straight ALCS appearance, with a big assist from spotting that Glasnow was tipping his pitches. Houston will never say, but I wonder whether that was something they spotted from the dugout in his previous start (Glasnow suddenly became much less effective in the last inning of his first start), or something their video guys spotted between starts. Either way, the Rays video people should also have spotted it, as Glasnow said he was alerted by text messages after the first inning and corrected it then. Thus, some people just watching TV could also see it, even not knowing what to look for (unlike the Astros, who appeared to know exactly what to look for).

    Other teams to appear in three straight LCS series.
    1969-71 Orioles
    1970-72 Pirates
    1971-75 A’s (5)
    1976-78 Royals
    1976-78 Yankees
    1976-78 Phillies
    1988-90 A’s
    1990-92 Pirates
    1991-93 Blue Jays
    1991-99 Braves (8)
    1998-2001 Yankees (4)
    2004-06 Cardinals
    2008-10 Phillies
    2011-13 Tigers
    2011-14 Cardinals (4)
    2015-17 Cubs
    2016-18 Dodgers

    Reply
  25. Doug

    The Nats, with that post-season monkey off their back, have become just the fifth team to hold the same opponent to one run or none, on 3 hits or less, in consecutive post-season games. The first four times were all in the World Series, in 1915, 1919, 2001 and 2010, but never before by the visiting team to start a series. The Yankees will be looking to match Washington’s feat in game 2 of the ALCS.

    Reply
  26. Doug

    16 strikeouts by Nats pitchers in game 3 are two more than the previous post-season record in a game with zero walks allowed. The first post-season game with double-digit strikeouts and no walks was the first post-season game, by the Pirates in game 1 of the 1903 WS; it would be 46 years before the next. Of 34 such games overall, 27 have come in the past 20 post-seasons.

    Nats pitchers could match or better the record for fewest runs allowed in any LCS (3 by the 1970 Reds and 1983 Orioles), any best-of-7 LCS (4 by the 1990 A’s), or any best-of-7 NLCS (5 by the 1995 Braves). But, they’d need another shutout to match the 1966 Orioles for fewest runs allowed in any best-of-7 series.

    Reply
  27. Doug

    The Yankees’ WOHR loss to the Astros in game 2 was the fifth in Yankees’ post-season history; they lost the series on each of of the previous occasions (1957, 1960 and 2003 WS, 2004 ALCS).

    Reply
    1. Voomo

      Warren Spahn gave up a three-run HR in the 9th of that 1957 game,
      came out to pitch the 10th,
      gave up another run…
      and got the Win.

      That year marked the beginning of a streak of 7 consecutive seasons leading the league in Complete Games (ages 36-42)

      Reply
      1. Doug

        In the last of those league-leading seasons, the 42 year-old Spahn pitched half of his complete games (11 of 22) on three days rest, including his 15.1 IP loss to Marichal and the Giants.

        In his final season as a Giant, the 44 year-old Spahn recorded his second-to-last CG opposing ’57 Braves WS hero Lew Burdette, then pitching for the Phillies. Burdette also went the distance to make the game one of only 10 since 1908 with a pair of CGs for age 38+ pitchers (of those 10 games, Spahn and Burdette have the highest combined age, at more than 83 years).

        Reply
      1. Paul E

        Mike L
        Obviously, they’re not doing a great job. Let’s hope they’re a non-profit or have some other reasonable excuse

        Reply
  28. Doug

    Congrats to the Nationals on the franchise’s first NL pennant, in its 51st season. The closest the franchise had come previously was an NLCS loss to the Dodgers in 1981 (in the other strike-shortened season in 1994, the Expos recorded the majors’ best record). The previous Washington-based team, the Senators, claimed their first AL pennant as the Texas Rangers in that franchise’s 50th season. Those are two longest droughts for any franchise from inception to pennant, The Mariners now have the longest current drought, at 43 years.

    In the clincher, Nats pitchers struck out 14 Cardinals, after whiffing 16 the day before. Second time this post-season that Washington has fanned 14+ in consecutive games; it had happened only four times before this post-season, and only once before 2013. Patrick Corbin struck out 12 over 5 IP, three more whiffs than the previous post-season record in as short a start.

    Reply
    1. Doug Post author

      Cole crashed off this list after his game 1 struggles. Probably not too surprising given that only one of the players making the list had more than 3 starts and he (Odom) averaged barely 6 IP in those games. Tough to sustain other-worldly performance against top flight competition.

      Reply
  29. Doug

    Quite the 9th inning to close out the ALCS. Only the third post-season game with both teams hitting multi-run HR in the same inning in the 9th or extra innings. The others were the Mets and Giants in game 2 of the 2000 NLDS, and the Twins and A’s in game 5 of the 2002 ALDS. Astros become the first team with two walk-off HR in the same series.

    What didn’t happen in that 9th inning was Martin Maldonado leading off and trying to bunt his away aboard as he’d done earlier in the game. That was only the 8th such post-season bunt base hit by a catcher with empty bases, and the first since 1985. But, you have to go back to Roger Bresnahan in 1905 for the last catcher to do so in a series clinching game.

    14 pitchers used by both teams tied the record for most in a series-clinching 9-inning game. 14 pitchers with less than 3 IP is a new record for any 9-inning post-season game. Neither starter lasting two innings tied the record for any series-clinching game (only other time was the Cubs and Yankees in the 1932 WS).

    Reply
  30. Richard Chester

    I have seen many comments on Twitter about the Yankees not making the WS for this decade. I pay no attention to them as I consider the decade as starting with a year ending in 1. Accordingly the second decade of the 21st century extends form 2011 to 2020. The Yankees still have 1 year left to make it to the WS.

    Reply
    1. Paul E

      Richard,
      I guess if the NYY sign free agent Gerritt Cole in the off-season, that has to be a minimum 10 WAR swing (5 WAR in opposite directions for the Yanks and Astros). That certainly would help NY. Coupled with the fact the Sawx seem to be up against it with their starting pitching, another 100-win season might be, to paraphrase Richie Ashburn, “a lead-pipe cinch”.

      Reply
    2. Doug

      However you consider decades, the Yankees have made it to only one World Series in 16 years. Previously, they could say that only after the 1995 season, and when they made it to their first World Series in 1921.

      Reply
          1. Paul E

            The 1904 Washington Senators were playing so poorly in the summer of 1904 that Dryden famously wrote, “Washington – first in war, first in peace, and last in the American League,”[27] a play on the famous line in Henry Lee III’s eulogy for President George Washington as “First in war, first in peace, and first in the hearts of his countrymen”.

            They left Washington and made the series 4 years later in Minneapolis (1965). I guess that’s all it took

  31. Doug Post author

    FWIW, since the LCS went to a best of 7 format in 1985, only one team (the 1995 Braves) which swept an LCS has won the WS. World Series losers among LCS sweepers include the A’s (1988, 1990), Tigers (2006, 2012), Rockies (2007), Royals (2014) and Mets (2015).

    In the best of 5 days, sweeps were far more common, occurring 13 times in 32 LCS from 1969 to 1984, including 3 seasons in which both LCS winners swept their opponent. In the other 7 seasons, the sweepers went 4-3 in the WS.

    Reply
    1. Mike L

      Could this have anything to do with the changes in how the pitching staff is utilized? Even before the present in-game revolving door, the trend of shorter SP appearances has been around for a while. I randomly checked the 1976 Reds, who swept LCS 3-0. then swept Yankees in WS. They used only six pitchers in the LCS against the Phillies, and only seven pitchers in the WS–and that was with Sparky “Captain Hook” managing.

      Reply

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