This post is for voting and discussion in the 134th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This is the second of two rounds of balloting adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1975. Rules and lists are after the jump.
The new group of 1975-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This second group of 1975-born candidates, comprising those with K-Z surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.
In addition to voting for COG election among players on the main ballot, there will be also be voting for elevation to the main ballot among players on the secondary ballot. For the main ballot election, voters must select three and only three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast in the round inducted into the Circle of Greats. For the secondary ballot election, voters may select up to three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast elevated to the main ballot for the next COG election round. In the case of ties, a runoff election round will be held for COG election, while a tie-breaking process will be followed to determine the secondary ballot winner.
Players who fail to win either ballot but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. One additional round of eligibility is earned by any player who appears on at least 10% of the ballots cast or, for the main ballot only, any player finishing in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances. Holdover candidates on the main ballot who exhaust their eligibility will drop to the secondary ballot for the next COG election round, as will first time main ballot candidates who attract one or more votes but do not earn additional main ballot eligibility. Secondary ballot candidates who exhaust their eligibility will drop from that ballot, but will become eligible for possible reinstatement in a future Redemption round election.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Thursday, February 20th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Tuesday, February 18th.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1975 Part 2 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also in the spreadsheet is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1975 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players, for both the main and secondary ballots, from the lists below of eligible players. The current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1975 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
| MAIN BALLOT | ELIGIBILITY | SECONDARY BALLOT | ELIGIBILITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dick Allen | 8 rounds | Willie Randolph | 11 rounds |
| Bill Dahlen | 8 rounds | Todd Helton | 10 rounds |
| Luis Tiant | 7 rounds | Stan Coveleski | 4 rounds |
| Bobby Wallace | 3 rounds | Minnie Minoso | 4 rounds |
| Ted Lyons | 2 rounds | Bobby Abreu | 3 rounds |
| Graig Nettles | 2 rounds | Monte Irvin | 3 rounds |
| Ted Simmons | 2 rounds | Ken Boyer | 2 rounds |
| Don Sutton | 2 rounds | Don Drysdale | this round ONLY |
| Richie Ashburn | this round ONLY | Tim Hudson | this round ONLY |
| Andre Dawson | this round ONLY | Andy Pettitte | this round ONLY |
| Vladimir Guerrero | this round ONLY | Reggie Smith | this round ONLY |
| Rick Reuschel | this round ONLY | Billy Williams | this round ONLY |
| Gary Sheffield | this round ONLY |
Everyday Players (born in 1975, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, K-Z surname):
Alex Rodriguez
David Ortiz
Mark Kotsay
Scott Rolen
Placido Polanco
Derrek Lee
Jose Molina
Marco Scutaro
Gabe Kapler
Julio Lugo
Chad Moeller
Fernando Tatis
Daryle Ward
Mike Lamb
Javier Valentin
Pitchers (born in 1975, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, K-Z surname):
Jeff Suppan
Rodrigo Lopez
Damaso Marte
Eric Milton
B.J. Ryan
Jaret Wright
Esteban Yan
Scot Shields
Hiroki Kuroda
As is our custom with first time candidates, here is a factoid and related quiz question on each of the new players on the ballot.
- Alex Rodriguez is the only player with a career including 1000 games at both shortstop and third base. Which two players, like Rodriguez, recorded 1000+ shortstop games, all of them before their age 30 seasons? (Robin Yount, Joe Sewell)
- David Ortiz is the all-time leader in DH games with over 2000 in a career split between the Twins and Red Sox. Which other two players recorded 200 DH games for the Twins and for another franchise? (Paul Molitor, Chili Davis)
- Mark Kotsay played over 400 games for the Marlins, Padres and Athletics? Which other player played 400 games for two of those franchises? (Gene Tenace)
- Scott Rolen‘s 156 games played in 1997 led the Phillies, and all NL rookies. Who was the last Phillie rookie to do the same, while also compiling more walks than whiffs? (Dave Bancroft, 1915)
- Jeff Suppan’s 4.70 career ERA is the highest, by more than 0.25 runs, of any pitcher with 2500 IP. Which contemporary of Suppan has the highest career ERA of any pitcher with 3000 IP? (Livan Hernandez)
- Placido Polanco posted career highs in 2007 with a .341 BA and 200 hits. Before Polanco, who was the last second baseman to match or surpass those totals and not win a batting title? (Charlie Gehringer, 1936)
- Jose Molina posted two seasons catching 95+ games but recording fewer than 300 PA. Who is the only player with more such seasons? (J.C. Martin)
- Derrek Lee’s 331 career home runs are tied for the fewest among first basemen with 1000 runs, 1000 RBI and fewer than 2000 hits. Which player is Lee tied with? (Hank Greenberg)
- Marco Scutaro’s .500 BA in the 2012 NLCS is the highest by a second baseman in an LCS series (min. 20 PA). Which three players matched Scutaro’s BA playing second base in a World Series? (Joe Gordon 1941, Billy Martin 1953, Phil Garner 1979)
- Julio Lugo is one of 12 shortstops since 1901 with multiple seasons of 30 doubles and 30 stolen bases. Lugo posted those seasons for the D-Rays and Red Sox. Who is the only shortstop to post such seasons for three franchises? (Jose Reyes)
- Gabe Kapler is the only outfielder to play 300 games for the Rangers and Red Sox. Which player compiled a career including 300 games for the Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees? (Mike Stanley)
- Chad Moeller compiled -3.6 WAR over 1539 PA, the worst career ratio among catchers with 500 game careers. Which active player currently has the second worst WAR per PA ratio for such catchers? (Drew Butera)
- Rodrigo Lopez posted seasons leading each league in losses. Which other three pitchers did the same? (Tom Candiotti, Jerry Koosman, Emil John “Dutch” Leonard)
- B.J. Ryan recorded a 4.38 ERA in over 200 IP through age 27, but improved by 1.73 runs to a 2.65 ERA in more than 300 IP for the rest of his career. Which two pitchers recorded larger ERA improvements among relievers with 200+ IP in both of those career “halves”?
(Jeremy Affeldt, Joe Beimel) - Damaso Marte posted 6 consecutive seasons (2002-07) with 60 relief appearances and 120 ERA+, tied for the longest streak of such seasons by pitchers aged 32 or younger. Which pitcher shares that record with Marte? (Keith Foulke)
- Daryle Ward and his father, Gary, both hit for the cycle. Which other father/son duo did the same? (Craig/Cavan Biggio)
- Eric Milton is one of four pitchers with 1.5 HR/9 in a 1500 IP career. Which teammate of Milton’s has the highest HR/9 in a 2000 IP career?
(Bronson Arroyo) - Jaret Wright is the youngest pitcher to start two World Series games in his rookie season. Who is the only pitcher younger than Wright to start game 7 of a World Series? (Bret Saberhagen, 1985)
- Fernando Tatis stole 20 bases in 1999 while reaching triple digits in R, RBI and SO. Who was the first player to post such a season? (Bobby Bonds, 1971)
- Esteban Yan’s 4.76 career ERA as a reliever is the highest among expansion era pitchers with 500 relief IP. Which pre-expansion pitcher has the only higher career ERA in 500+ relief IP? (Dick Coffman)
- Scot Shields is one of 8 retired relief pitchers to compile a 500 IP career playing for only one franchise. Who is the only pre-expansion pitcher in that group? (Ace Adams)
- Mike Lamb is the only player with 300 games played for the Astros and Rangers. Lamb is one of 6 players to make his LCS debut with a PH home run in the 9th inning or later. Which player in that group had a walk-off shot for that LCS debut homer? (John Lowenstein, 1979 ALCS)
- Javier Valentin is the second Puerto Rican-born player (after Benito Santiago) to catch for the Reds. Which HoFer hails from the same home town as Valentin? (Ivan Rodriguez)
- Hiroki Kuroda pitched 600+ innings in both leagues in a career of less than 1400 IP. Which pitcher did the same and compiled fewer career IP than Kuroda? (Chris Young)
#4: Guillermo Montanez ?
Not Willie. 67 BB/105 K in his rookie year, and more K than BB in every season of his career.
Main: Rodriguez, Rolen, Ortiz
Secondary: Williams, Abreu, Helton
3. This one I’m pretty sure on with no research. Gene Tenace played 400+ games with the Athletics and the Padres.
2. Another gimme for at least half the answer – Paul Molitor definitely played over 200 games at DH for the Twins and Blue Jays. And the Brewers, too.
Also, I note that Kuroda is a rare player to qualify under the over 20 WAR standard, since he did not play 10 MLB seasons. It’s also amazing to realize Jaret Wright was born the same year as Kuroda – one came up from the American minors at 21 (and became one of the youngest pitchers to start a WS agme), one came over from Japan at Age 33. They had zero overlap in their careers – Wright retired after the 2007 season, Kuroda’s “rookie” year was 2008.
Teddy Higuera compiled 30.3 WAR without making it ten seasons in the Majors. I wonder if there are any other players who make it over 30 without having played 10 seasons.
Bill Joyce had 31 WAR (incl. PL and AA) in 8 seasons. Ray Chapman (29.1), Benny Kauff (29, incl. FL) and Josh Hamiton (28.3) were close.
On the mound, Addie Joss had 46.9 WAR in 9 seasons, Noodles Hahn was 45.4 for 8 seasons, and Russ Ford had 33.9 WAR and Brandon Webb 33 WAR, both in 7 seasons. There are also several 19th century pitchers with 30 WAR in fewer than 10 seasons.
The other answer for #2 is Chili Davis (Twins/Angels).
For another one I think I know off the top of my head, # 18 should be Bret Saberhagen.
Man, I wish the BBWAA gave us a few more rounds this season, because this is a fun ballot. We’ve got a sure thing inner circle Top 3 at his position ever guy with PED taint. We’ve got a Gold Glove 3B who will have to prove he can clear the hurdles that Nettles and Boyer have been unable to do. And we’ve got Papi, who almost certainly misses CoG consideration on pure numbers, but his career story is so much more than just his final batting line. Meanwhile, with Manny finally elected, Dahlen and Allen are two holdovers who were making strong pushes last ballot.
David Ortiz is the anti-Rick Reushel. Lifetime BWAR of 55.3, good enough on Black and Grey Ink,. and HOF Monitor and Standards, several standout seasons, plus the WS. PED taint, but that doesn’t seem to move COG voters as much as it does the Writers.
Probably the PED taint is diminished because his mid-30s career resurrection came about by slimming down, rather than bulking up.
Could be. He’s the unicorn, the one MLB has always defended on PED use. Others; (like A-Rod doing analysis) they have tolerated, but with Ortiz they have gone farther, but without any explanation. It either speaks to non-public information, or a business judgment that he’s a very popular figure and it’s good for the bottom line.
A couple other ways in which they’re opposites: one a hitter, one a pitcher; one played the bulk of his career in a park that benefited his skills (Ortiz in Fenway), the other in a park that detracted from them (Reuschel in Wrigley); one played for successful teams, the other for unsuccessful teams; one was a legendary postseason performer, the other entirely forgettable (and pretty awful); one is American and one is not; one is White and one is not; one played primarily (all but one half-season) in the National League, one entirely in the American. It would be hard to think of two famous players who have THAT many divergent factors and are assessed in a similar way relative to the COG – that is to say, clearly good enough for consideration, but perhaps not good enough for induction (though time will tell if Ortiz is actually trated that way; that’s just my guess).
As for Reuschel, I personally find it fascinating that his ERAs got better each decade of his career: 3.40 in his 20s, 3.37 in his 30s, and 3.26 in his 40s. Of course, that MOSTLY has to do with park factors (and, probably to a lesser extent, the quality of the defense behind him). Reuschel played in a hitters’ park for a bad team and peaked in an era of remarkable pitching studs – the 1970s crop that all won 280+ and made the Hall of Fame. It would be hard to pick a more un-favorable environment for a pitcher than that (though I suppose you could’ve had him play in a more high-octane offensive era to make the raw ERA looks worse).
Here’s a fun thought experiment. Let’s transplant Rick Reuschel to the Dodgers of 1972-1991. We know that the Dodgers went 1738-1440 in those years, a .546 winning percentage. If we assume that their success was a combination of success at run scoring and run prevention, we could reasonable surmise a team OPS+ of 105 and a team ERA+ of 105. What would Rick Reuschel’s career have been like with a team with a 105 OPS+?
Well, you can use the Pythagorean record to figure that out! A 105 OPS+ is the same as a 95 OPS-. Take:
(ERA+)^2
(ERA+)^2 + (OPS-)^2
and you’ll get a Pythagorean winning %. For Reuschel, that’s 114^2/(114^2+95^2)=.590
Given Reuschel’s actual number of decisions (why estimate them, right?), that would give him a 239-166 record – similar to BBWAA inductee Herb Pennock (241-162) and David Wells (239-157), and significantly better than HOF inductee Waite Hoyt (237-182) or his fellow COG-borderliner Luis Tiant (229-172). Extremely similar to Jack Morris (254-186).
Additionally, Reuschel would probably have a 3.04 career ERA, rather than a 3.37; that’s pretty big (Reuschel’s ballparks inflated his career ERA by something like 7%; playing for the Dodgers would’ve artificially lowered it by another roughly 3%), but I think he would probably be a VERY favorable comparison to Morris, who IS in the Hall (especially because he’d have played on 7 postseason teams, including 5 pennant winners). That would raise his profile in a similar manner to, say, Andy Pettitte or Catfish Hunter, and he might be an easy HOFer.
Plus, take into account a season like 1977. In ’77, the Cubs’ schedule inflated ERAs by 12%; Dodger Stadium deflated them by 2%. That would take Reuschel from a 2.79 ERA to a 2.44 ERA. That would’ve placed him second in the league, likely with a league-leading number of wins (he was second with 20 as it was, pitching for the 81-win Cubs; putting him on the 98-win Dodgers, in particular, seems worth a couple wins – Steve Carlton won 23, no one else more than 21). Maybe he’s first or second in wins, first in ERA for the team with the league’s best record… that’s a Cy Young, right?
The point is, if you change some of RR’s circumstances, I think it’s easy to make him a HOF pitcher… without actually changing the fundamental player he was. I think he’s a HOF-level pitcher. And I think if I had the hour to play with to do a REVERSE of this for Ortiz, I could make him an obvious “ignore” for the BBWAA. These are just two pretty extreme guys for circumstances meaning as much as (and sometimes more than) underlying skill and even success.
Thanks DD,
Really enjoyed reading that. Love your heuristic metrics; fun, easy to calculate, and remarkably revealing.
OK, without beating this one to death, people are using WAR as a short hand device to calculate value, across positions, and across eras. That’s all I was trying to do in matching Reuschel to Ortiz. Yes, they have divergent features, but WAR is suppose to smooth out those divergent features. Through ridicule, you’ve partially made my point. Second, an ERA differential between his decades is misleading. Yes, he had a 3:26 in his 40s, but that was over a total of 306 IP. Between his 20s and 30s, a difference of .03, which is almost no difference at all–three runs per 900 IP. Third, I like your Pythag conversions, but David Wells washed out in his first year of eligibility (less than 1%) Hoyt never got over 19% until the Vets Committee picked him and both Dick Morris and Catfish are often mocked selections. Finally, converting player stats to different teams (Dodgers, in your example) only goes so far. Reuschel was 3-12 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in Dodger Stadium–his worst mark anywhere he pitched more than 6.2 IP
Mike L
….couldn’t help but notice your accidental Dick Morris reference. Wasn’t he, at one time, a political supporter of DeWitt Clinton?
Darn, I meant to edit that and got distracted by a phone call. DeWitt and I go way back–worked on the development of the Erie Canal.
Reuschel was 3-12, 4.47, 1.47 in Dodger Stadium against the Dodgers, who were consistently among the best teams in the league during his tenure. Those numbers would undoubtedly change if he pitched FOR the Dodgers against the 1970s Padres, Expos, Giants, Mets, Cubs…
Of course, but, for the purposes of argument, let’s multiply that over nine innings and express a seasonal total, of 724 earned runs per season. Reuschel pitched from 1972 to 1991. Eliminate 1981 as a strike shortened year. The Dodgers scored less than (often significantly less than that) in 13 of those years. If you added in unearned runs, there was not a single season in which Reuschel pitched better than average. Not only was he not particularly good empirically against the Dodgers, he was somewhat worse than average. If we adopt part of Doom’s analysis and goose his stats to pretend he’s in Dodger Stadium, don’t we have to acknowledge, that in the real world, it didn’t happen
I wouldn’t put a lot of importance on Reuschel’s record in Dodger Stadium indicating he wouldn’t have been successful there as a Dodger. Ditto for any established pitcher and any park when going from a bad club to a good one; the pitcher will likely be better. or much better, in that park pitching for the home side instead of as a visitor.
In the particular case of Rueschel and Dodger Stadium for 1972-91, Dodgers were incredibly dominant at home for those seasons, above .600 nine time, above .500 nine more, and just one game under .500 for the last two. Team ERA was under 3.00 11 times, and under 3.33 in all but one of the remaining seasons. Visitors hit under .250 in 18 of 20 seasons, and under .265 in the other two. You get the idea. Going against that kind of home field advantage, most pitchers, especially on bad teams, would feel they had to be almost perfect to give their team a chance, which is a pretty tough burden on any pitcher.
More generally, though, I think Doom’s point about Reuschel is that, had he pitched under more advantageous circumstances (better teams, more favorable parks), his HoF chances would have been much better. To me, it seems hard to argue otherwise.
I’ll start where you finished. I certainly wouldn’t argue with Doom that Reuschel would have had gaudier stats and a better HoF chance if he had been on better teams. But since Doom ran part of an analysis assuming Reuschel as if he were a Dodger, I thought I’d test that with some actual performance. He was not a good pitcher in Dodger Stadium, for whatever reason, and it wasn’t because he couldn’t pitch against the Dodgers–he was good against them at when he was pitching at home. To me, this is illustrative of an occasional problem with some advanced stats that adjust for context–like fielding, stadium, etc. when they tell you not to fully believe traditional ones. Most of the time, they are correctly predictive of what would have happened, but not always. In the specific thought experiment Doom proposed, Reuschel a Dodger (and, by extension, pitching half his games in Dodger Stadium, I think the actual results should at least give us pause.
Internet’s been down for a couple of days in my town, so I haven’t yet had the chance to reply. Frustrating.
Anyway, Mike, I’m not sure why you think I was ridiculing – I really didn’t intend that. I just really appreciated your comparison of the two players. It honestly would be hard to think of two other players who live on the outskirts of the HOF/COG with more different features to their candidacies. Not trying to ridicule, just add to the discussion.
As to the other points in your post, I agree that the ERA figures are misleading. But, misleading though they were, it’s just another weird thing in the weird, completely irregular career of Rick Reuschel. It’s similar to Eddie Collins, whose hitting stats get better with age – but not because his PLAY was improving, merely because his CIRCUMSTANCES were. His OPS numbers are much higher in the ’20s than the ’10s, but the OPS+ numbers show you that his peak was actually in his 20s, like a normal player.
Finally, to be clear, the purpose of my analysis was this: to see how Reuschel would’ve been perceived without changing his underlying value. What you’ve done with your analysis is something very different: given what we know of Reuschel in Dodger Stadium, how would his value have been affected? That’s a fine and worthwhile thought experiment, and while we might have differences in methodology, I wouldn’t begrudge someone playing the “what if” game, because “what if” is fun.
But what I was doing was imagining, “What if Rick Reuschel had been the same guy, only he’d played in David Ortiz-like luck?” As I see it, Ortiz couldn’t have hoped for much more: he’s a DH, and he played in a DH league; he played for a team with a high national profile; his team was always good; he was a hitter in a hitter’s park. Rick Reuschel happened to play (mostly) for teams in places in which he found the opposite: the circumstances all worked AGAINST him.
So I simply wanted to, again without changing his value, reimagine how an Ortiz-like career might’ve affected his reputation. I think a Rick Reuschel with multiple World Series appearances, with a Cy Young, and with probably a HIGHER national profile than he deserved… well, I think that guy sails into the Hall of Fame without question. But, again, the important thing to me was that the value not need to change in order for that to happen. If you want to try the other thing, that’s fine; but we’re playing different games, with different rules.
I think you are right, we are playing different games with different rules.
I’ve been lurking around this site (and it’s predecessor) for close to ten years, and i’ll say again that I’m not a math guy and defer to everyone else here on that point.
And I don’t disagree that if Reuschel had played on a better team, got a couple of rings, etc. that he would likely be a stronger candidate.
I use the word “likely” for a reason. In every population there are those who are outliers, for whatever reason. WAR may be a terrific way of registering the relative values of thousands of players over a two decade period, and adjusting stats for the environment they were achieved in, but, when we narrow it down to a single player, then we can run into some problems if we assume that what was right for a population is right for the guy in front of us. We don’t know how he would have played. Some players–some, clearly not the majority–perform atypically when placed in different environments. Maybe it’s the stadium, maybe it’s the clubhouse culture, or the city, or their mental makeup. Some thrive in ultra-competitive situations, some don’t like the limelight. I don’t know what percentage of “atypicals” there are. Maybe if you put ten Rick Reuschels on the Dodgers, nine would be terrific in Dodger Stadium. This one wasn’t. Imaging how much renown he would have had is an interesting exercise, but we might also imagine what his stats (including WAR) might have looked like if he pitched half his games in Dodger Stadium.
1. Robin Yount is surely one of them.
6. Is there a more recent one than Charlie Gehringer? I thought of Red Schoendienst, but he missed by 7 hits.
Gehringer is the one.
Q22: John Lowenstein in game 1 of the 1979 ALCS.
#19 Bobby Bonds.
At this point, if it’s something about steals and strikeouts, he’s the default first guess.
Struck out at an unprecedented rate but, if you batted him 3rd (or leadoff), a pretty good RF’er to have on your side
21. Is it the ironically-named (for a relief pitcher, anyway) Ace Adams? I feel extraordinarily luck to have found him, but I’m pretty sure he’s it.
Adams is the one. According to his SABR bio, his 70 games played in 1943 was then the record for pitchers, as was his four straight seasons with 60 games, doubling the previous long season streak. His ML career ended in 1946 when he jumped to the Mexican League, but he played only one season there. His son, grandson, and great, great-great, and great-great-great grandsons are all named Ace.
To be clear to other non-PI folks, I found this by looking at save leaders from the pre-saves-existing era. Adams led his league twice, so I clicked on him, saw his IP, subtracted out the ~40 IP he had as a starter, and saw he was the guy.
23. I have to say that, obviously, Jose Valentin is the answer. But even as an unapologetic Brewers fan, that’s a bit too far. (Apparently, Jose Valentin’s son played in the majors in 2018. Who knew?)
The correct answer is Ivan Rodriguez.
The other significant player is Carlos Beltran. As for his HOF chances… we’ll see.
So, not ready for a full ballot yet, but I’ve voted for Nettles a lot. I still might vote for him. But I do believe Scott Rolen is the superior of Nettles. Some quick #’s:
Rolen vs. Nettles
Rolen’s G / PA: 2038 / 8518
Nettles’s G / PA: 2700 / 10228
Rolen’s bWAR: 70.2
Rolen’s fWAR: 69.9
Rolen’s gWAR: 67.3
Rolen’s Win Shares: 307.2
Nettles’s bWAR: 68
Nettles’s fWAR: 65.7
Nettles’s gWAR: 70.9
Nettles’s Win Shares: 318.7
So you have incredibly similar career value, except Rolen did it in a much shorter career. Nettles may be better defensively, but Rolen was also a Gold Glover, and Rolen’s definitely a better hitter in context.
#9–one of them is Billy Martin 1953
Joe Gordon in 1941 should be another.
And Phil Garner in 1979.
Q7: Buck Martinez
Not Martinez (check the wording of the question closely).
How about J. C. Martin
Main: A-Rod, Bill Dahlen, Don Sutton
Secondary: Minnie Minoso, Billy Williams, Andy Pettitte
#1 Arky Vaughan ?
Richard got it , below. It’s Joe Sewell.
#8-Hank Greenberg?
Q1: I’ll try Joe Sewell for the other player.
Main: A. Rodriguez, B. Dahlen, R. Ashburn
Secondary: M. Minoso, K. Boyer, B. Williams
Q11: Mike Stanley
Q24: Chris Young
For the 1975 Part 2 election, I’m voting for:
-Alex Rodriguez
-Don Sutton
-Andre Dawson
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Guerrero
-Rolen
-Reuschel
-Tiant
-Ashburn
-Nettles
-Allen
-Wallace
-Dahlen
-Lyons
-Sheffield
Thanks!
For the Secondary Ballot, I’m voting for:
-Willie Randolph
-Andy Pettitte
-Tim Hudson
Thanks!
Q 16: Craig and Cavan Biggio. (Also grandfather/grandson combo Gus/David Bell.)
Secondary:
Bobby Abreu
Stan Coveleski
Willie Randolph
Vote:
Richie Ashburn
Ted Lyons
Ted Simmons
Main Ballot: ARod, Ortiz, Sheffield
Secondary: Minoso, Randolph, Helton
17. Looks like Aaron Harang.
Not Aaron (he ranks 14th in HR/9 for 2000 IP pitchers).
Okay, this was a total brainfart – I had considered Harang but saw his was definitely too low to be the one. I then searched for the right answer, which is Bronson Arroyo, and I should have typed Bronson Arroyo, but I didn’t.
Main Ballot: A-Rod (all warts included, still the best player on this ballot and one of the best ever), Rolen (I’ve voted a lot for Nettles – Rolen is better), Dahlen (I want to give a pitcher a vote, I do…but I have been behind Dahlen for a while now)
Secondary: Irvin (deserves more consideration for a split career), Coveleski (I believe he was dismissed too quickly his first run through), Boyer (I’ve put a lot of support behind Nettles, and now Rolen – I don’t think Boyer is that far behind them)
Early Ballot Update:
Through 7 Ballots Cast (Jeff Harris, CC, Voomo, Bruce Gilbert, Gary Bateman, opal611, Chris C)
Main:
6 – A-Rod
—50% cut-off—
3 – Dahlen
2 – Papi, Rolen, Ashburn, Sutton
—25% cut-off—
1 – Sheffield, Lyons, Simmons, Dawson
—10% cut-off—
0 – Vlad, Reuschel, Nettles, Allen, Tiant, Wallace
Secondary:
—50% cut-off—
3 – Randolph, Minoso, Williams
2 – Abreu, Boyer, Coveleski, Helton, Pettitte
—25% cut-off—
1 – Irvin, Hudson
—10% cut-off—
0 – Drysdale, Smith
Main ballot is obviously just going to be a race for eligibility rounds – A-Rod should cruise to the CoG. Secondary is anybody’s ballgame right now, with a 3-way tie for first and a 5-way tie one vote behind them.
I have the same at this point.
One of the pitchers for #13 is Jerry Koosman.
And the other two are Tom Candiotti and Dutch Leonard.
Q20: Chad Kimsey
Not Kimsey. Looking for pitchers with 500 IP in relief.
How about Dick Coffman, 4.765 ERA to Yan’s 4.761.
5. This one is Livan Hernandez, just edging out Tim Wakefield.
10. Not sure why it took so long to think of him as the obvious answer, but it’s Jose Reyes.
Also, not that it’s a big deal, but I just did the P-I search for this and I only see 11 players – Vizquel, Wagner, Lugo, Reyes, Rollins, Hanley, Furcal, Renteria, Ozzie, Larkin and Alcides. Who’s the 12th?
The 12th is Jonathan Villar.
Ah, I see the issue. One of those seasons was 2019, where he actually played more 2B than SS – but for his career, he has still played the majority of his games as a SS.
Actually, it’s not about his career games; Villar still played 97 games at SS in 2019, well over half, so that was the criterion used for selection. His game logs show:
– 62 games only at 2B
– 48 games only at SS
– 48 games at both positions
– 1 game as PR and 2B
– 1 game as PH and SS
Main Ballot:
Alex Rodriguez
Scott Rolen
Don Sutton
A-Rod and Scott Rolen are too good for me to ignore. I need one holdover… and Sutton is the best, in my opinion.
Secondary Ballot:
Don Drysdale
Todd Helton
Ken Boyer
With Sheffield off the list, I get to include Ken Boyer this time, which I regretted last time. So there we go.
I don’t have much else to add this round. Maybe I’ll be up to adding more next time ’round.
The scary part is that we may have no new CoG rounds next year due to the BBWAA – but if we do get some, it’ll be all holdovers, since there’s nobody with a case among the 1976 births.
Last year or two years ago, I wrote a post on this site (which I’m not going to look for; far to many threads on which one might find it), in which I speculated about this very thing, knowing that the 1976 was a rather bare one in COG terms (no offense to the Lance Berkman fans out there). Looking ahead, that REALLY might not be a bad thing, because 1977 is a pretty decent year (Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Roy Halladay), 1978 has at least one candidate (Chase Utley – also, Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee; I had no idea how much of those Phillies teams were born in this one year), 1979 gives us a no-doubter (Adrian Beltre – plus Mark Buerhle and Johan Santana), and then 1980 is two pretty big candidates, too (Albert Pujols and CC Sabathia). Not that there’s any guarantee we’ll still even be DOING this in 5 years (I certainly hope so!), but it’s fun to think about. So next year is probably the best year for an empty class. On the other hand, I think it’s pretty likely Schilling gets elected next year with next to no competition on the BBWAA ballot. Bonds and Clemens might even have THEIR best shots on their penultimate chance. We’ll see.
Also, while writing this post, I realized that Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones were the same age. That… does NOT seem right. Taking the best seasons of their careers and putting them together into one monstrous player, you get the following WAR numbers:
1996 – 0.1 (Jones)
1997 – 3.3 (Jones)
1998 – 7.4 (Jones)
1999 – 7.1 (Jones)
2000 – 8.2 (Jones)
2001 – 6.5 (Beltran)
2002 – 6.6 (Jones)
2003 – 5.8 (Beltran)
2004 – 6.8 (Beltran)
2005 – 6.7 (Jones)
2006 – 8.2 (Beltran)
2007 – 5.4 (Beltran)
2008 – 7.0 (Beltran)
2009 – 3.6 (Beltran)
2010 – 1.9 (Jones)
2011 – 4.6 (Beltran)
2012 – 3.9 (Beltran)
2013 – 2.2 (Beltran)
2014 – -0.1 (Beltran; technically, Jones’s 0.0 is better, but he was retired)
2015 – 0.8 (Beltran)
2016 – 2.0 (Beltran)
2017 – retired (Jones; this time, I feel like I CAN say that retiring was the better option)
That monstrosity gets 98.0 WAR! Even the alternative version, which starts with Beltran’s first season and ends with Jones’ last, taking the WORSE season each time, ends up with 35.2 WAR. Still pretty darn good, I’d say. Point is, you can see how dominant Jones was in the first part of their careers, as well as how much Beltran was in the latter portion. It makes it hard for me to think of these guys as contemporaries. Just thought that was interesting.
Kind of like Vada Pinson and Willie McCovey being born the same year. Here are their WAR thru/after 1965:
Pinson……….40.3/14.0
McCovey……21.6/42.9
So, Mike Bolsinger (4.92 ERA in 230.2 IP) is suing the Astros for damages for stealing signs against in him in his final career game, in which he retired only one of 8 batters, and was then sent down to the minors, never to return (of course, he was in Japan the last two years, so kind of tough to get a call-up from there).
Got me wondering how many other careers ended on a forgettable relief appearance. Hundreds, of course, but only the six below allowed 6 runs in relief in each of the last two games of their careers, since 1908.
– Bob Kammeyer……NYY…1978-79……5.0 IP…17 R…16 ER
– Joe Page……………….PIT….1954………..1.1 IP…14 R…..9 ER (comeback for primary reliever on late 1940s Yankee teams)
– Woody Upchurch…PHA…1936………..6.0 IP…14 R….11 ER
– Bob Clark…………….CLE….1921………..5.0 IP…13 R….13 ER
– Jake Boultes………..BSN…1908-09….13.1 IP…13 R
– Ralph Glaze…………BOS….1908………..7.1 IP…14 R
Dan Straily (BAL, 2019, 3.2 IP, 13 R, 13 ER) is still looking for work, so may be joining this group.
Primary: Rodriguez, Simmons, Sheffield
Secondary: Abreu, Coveleski, Drysdale
This vote I believe gives us a 7-way tie for the lead on the secondary ballot – so at least that one should be a dogfight, since the main ballot is a foregone conclusion.
Had the next two ballots been Hudson-Irvin-Drysdale and Hudson-Irvin-Pettitte, we could’ve had ourselves a nice 11-way tie. Alas, twas not to be.
12. Another obvious one that I just didn’t really think about much, but he was my first guess – it’s Jeff Mathis. He actually had positive career WAR, until last season where he was even more miserable at the plate than usual but still got 244 PA’s, the most he’d gotten since 2013.
FWIW, in trying to decide Billy Williams “versus” Todd Helton, here are Williams’ best 10 consecutive seasons in the context of the 2001 Colorado Rockies
Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO HBPSF BA OBP SLG OPS RC Gact
1963 25 161 744 654 123 217 45 11 31 135 8 84 78 2 3 .332 .408 .577 .985 154 161
1964 26 162 767 689 138 245 47 2 40 135 12 73 84 2 3 .356 .417 .605 1.022 174 162
1965 27 163 774 686 159 247 48 7 42 150 12 79 76 4 5 .360 .427 .635 1.062 186 164
1966 28 162 783 688 138 219 28 6 35 125 7 84 61 5 6 .319 .394 .529 .922 143 162
1967 29 162 770 677 131 219 26 14 35 120 7 84 67 2 6 .323 .397 .560 .957 151 162
1968 30 162 767 695 142 241 40 11 40 153 5 62 53 2 7 .347 .399 .606 1.005 169 163
1969 31 163 745 669 129 215 37 12 24 119 4 67 70 5 3 .322 .386 .521 .908 134 163
1970 32 161 738 653 156 222 37 5 46 148 7 78 65 2 4 .340 .411 .622 1.033 167 161
1971 33 157 723 626 112 211 31 6 33 120 8 90 44 4 3 .337 .422 .562 .984 148 157
1972 34 157 733 640 132 240 42 7 46 170 4 78 62 7 8 .375 .444 .681 1.124 193 150
2276 hits in 10 years beats Ichiro’s 2244. 1375 RBI almost matches the Babe’s best 10 years at 1391.
Yes; the numbers always add up in Colorado and, certainly for a guy like Williams who played every day and averaged about 160 G over the period from 1963 -1972
Williams played in 1614 games in a 10 year period from 1962-1971. Only Cal Ripken has more.
Also Williams’ 8 consecutive seasons of 160+ games is second only to Ripken.
Right. But put Babe’s numbers on the 200o Rockies and you get 1801 RBI.
Ruth’s whole career in 2000 Denver credits him with 901 HR and 3112 RBI
Allen, Guerrero, Simmons
Abreu, Coveleski, Billy Williams
Q14: One is Jeremy Affeldt (1.75 ERA improvement).
Main:
Allen
Guerrero
A-Rod
Secondary:
Williams
Minoso
Coveleski
Main ballot: A-Rod, Rolen, Dahlen
Secondary ballot: Coveleski, Boyer, Helton
Is the other answer for #2 Chili Davis?
Is #15 Keith Foulke?
Oops, looks like I got beaten to Chili Davis by quite a bit. So I’ll give another one – #15 is Keith Foulke. That six year peak was quite something – almost 20 WAR, a 195 ERA+, was on the mound when the Curse of the Bambino ended. The wheels fell off very quickly after 2004, though.
Updated Through 12 Ballots Cast (Jeff Harris, CC, Voomo, Bruce Gilbert, Gary Bateman, opal611, Chris C, Dr. Doom, JEV, Paul E, Richard Chester, Andy)
Main:
10 – A-Rod
—50% cut-off—
4 – Dahlen, Rolen
3 – Sutton, Simmons
—25% cut-off—
2 – Papi, Ashburn, Allen, Sheffield, Vlad
—10% cut-off—
1 – Lyons, Dawson
0 – Reuschel, Nettles, Tiant, Wallace
Secondary:
6 – Coveleski
—50% cut-off—
5 – Williams
4 – Boyer, Abreu, Helton, Minoso
3 – Randolph
—25% cut-off—
2 – Pettitte, Drysdale
—10% cut-off—
1 – Irvin, Hudson
0 – Smith
My count matches yours.
4. This seems like too long ago, but was it Dave Bancroft in 1915?
Yup. Either Bancroft or Johnny Wyrostek in 1946.
Wyrostek’s 1946 season is counted as a rookie season in P-I, but not on his B-R page. I’m inclined to side with his B-R page which says 1943 was his rookie season, in which he logged only 83 PA, but appeared in 51 games AND did not play in the minors at all. Lost 25 games to injury, but otherwise it would seem that he just rode the bench all season, which would exhaust his rookie eligibility even if he doesn’t play.
Would the other pitcher for #14 be Jim Brewer?
Not Brewer.
If the 200 IP requirement includes IP as a starter then it’s Joe Beimel. I found Brewer as 4th on the list.
It is Beimel, who improved his ERA from 5.24 through age 27 to 3.32 after age 27.
Ah, I see what I did wrong with #12. Again, I set the minimum to 500 games at catcher, not 500 games total with a majority of games at catcher. It’s Drew Butera.
Butera is the one. He has batted under .200 in 8 of his first 10 seasons, trailing only Bill Bergen (9 seasons) among non-pitchers.
Butera’s father Sal also had negative WAR for his career of 359 games.
I’m debating the merits of Guerrero and Sheffield — both outfielders and somewhat contemporaries. WAR gives Sheffield a so slight as to be insignificant advantage (60.3 – 59.4). But I’m having a hard time seeing how he gets in before Guerrero.
Using some quick and dirty comparisons, the two are about equal as hitters (both at 140 OPS+; Sheffield better OBP, Guerrero much better SLG). But defensively, Guerrero seems to have the clear advantage (Rtot has him at +69 while Sheffield posts a -112; not to mention Guerrero had that great arm).
What do others think? Anyone care to convince me otherwise?
Not to mention, Vlad’s got that MVP award on his resume…
Vlad had a great arm, but may have tried to do too much with it, resulting in errant throws. He led his league’s outfielders in errors 8 times, and ranks 6th all-time in most errors by a right-fielder (that said, I think outfielders get a bit of a raw deal on errors, as throws getting away from infielders nearly always result in an error to the outfielder, save for flat-out drops by the infielder).
But, it certainly wasn’t all bad, as witness these rankings:
– Putouts as RF: 2 times leading, 5 times top 3, 7 times top 5
– Assists as RF: 3 times leading, 6 times top 3, 10 times top 5
– Double Plays as RF: 1 time leading, 7 times top 3, 10 times top 5
– Range Factor as RF: 4 times top 3, 9 times top 5
– Assists as OF: 2 times leading, 4 times top 3, 5 times top 5
– Doubles Plays as OF: 2 times top 3, 4 times top 5
I’m pretty agnostic about this decision, but I’d like to make the case for Sheff, just because.
1. Yes, Sheffield and Guerrero have a similar OPS+. But Sheffield has 1,888 more PAs! That’s a 20% playing time advantage over Guerrero.
2. In a similar vein, let’s track their best seasons by OPS+:
Sheff – 189
Sheff – 176*
Sheff – 168
Sheff – 164
Sheff & Vlad – 162
Vlad – 160
Vlad – 157
Vlad – 156
Sheff – 155
Vlad – 154
Vlad – 150
Sheffield also has a 177 in a partial season that I’m not counting
It seems clear to me that, over their six best seasons each, Sheffield was obviously the better hitter, to the point of 12.5 OPS+ points per year. So while the final OPS+ figures might be the same, they both arrived as dominant hitters… but one substantially moreso than the other.
3. Recently, Bill James has been ranking the 100 best players at each position by a new method that grades each season of a players career, then gives them credit for a Level 10, Level 9, Level 8, etc., season. All these articles are behind a pay wall… except, conveniently for this discussion, Right Field. You can find the link here if you want to look for yourself. But in case you don’t feel like clicking and reading, Gary Sheffield ranks #6. Vladdy comes in at #15. (To be clear, this is based on offensive performance; one imagines the gap is closed, at least somewhat, by defense.)
4. Their eras aren’t so different such as to make direct comparisons irrelevant. So we can look at raw numbers, too. Guerrero struck out 248 more times than he walked (737 BB, 985 SO). Sheffield, on the other hand, walked more than he struck out (1475-1171). Along similar lines, they both homered in about 5.5% of career At-Bats. Which is to say, Sheffield’s 60-HR advantage is not a function of playing time, wherein he was the worse home run hitter but just played longer; they actually homered at the same rate, and Sheffield stayed in the league longer because he was a better hitter. And while, as you correctly point out, Guerrero had the better SLG and Sheffield the better OBP, Sheffield had more seasons slugging over .600 (3-2), which is to say that, at his peak, he could mash not only as well, but better than Guerrero… all while creating fewer outs by walking more, too!
5. Vlad, very famously, was a dual threat: in the box, and on the basepaths. He nearly had consecutive 40-40 seasons in 2001 (34-37) and 2002 (39-40). But did you know that Sheffield not only stole more bases (253-181), but ALSO had a higher success rate (70.87%-65.82%)? Sheffield never had the higher, flashier numbers as a young player, but he stole 22 as late as his age-38 season… an age at which Vlad was already retired! And while Vlad did have those two remarkable seasons stealing bases, they constitute 42% of his career stolen bases, and he has no other seasons of 16+. Sheffield, on the other hand, has seven seasons of 16+ to Vlad’s two. Now, those two are WAY better than any of Sheffield’s (his top season was 25), but Sheffield was much more consistent.
6. While it’s true that Guerrero has that MVP, they have the same number of top-2 finishes (one), top-3 finishes (three), top-8 finishes (five), and top-9 finishes (six). The only differences in voting are that Vladdy won while Sheffield came in second, and Sheffield has an 8th-place to compete with a 4th for Vlad. They have an identical nine All-Star nods. We’re not talking about players who were considered radically different from another.
7. Another thing that I think gets lost is that Vlad is considered a “winning” player. He was – I’m not saying you’re unlucky to have Vlad on your team. But Vlad won as many postseason series as a bit player for the Rangers (2, in 2010) as he did in the other 15 years of his career combined. He also had a .664 postseason OPS. I think people tend to remember him as a member of the 2003 Angels’ championship team… but he actually joined the World Champs, gave them an MVP season, and they proceeded to lose to the Red Sox in the first round that year. Sheffield won the same number of postseason series in his career (4). But his include a World Series win, in which he was an integral part, OPSing 1.714, .870, and .943, respectively, in the three rounds that postseason. His overall career postseason OPS was .799. While, like Vlad, Sheffield’s postseason OPS is lower than his career number, it’s a reduction of 12%; Guerrero, on the other hand, was about 29% worse in the playoffs.
8. So, if the choice comes down to these two, the question you have to ask yourself is this: does the defense not only cover the difference when there’s a clearly superior hitter, but does it ALSO cover the gap in longevity? Baseball-Reference WAR says “almost,” giving Sheffield the aforementioned 0.9 WAR advantage; Fangraphs says “definitely not,” giving Sheffield a 62.1-54.5 edge; the Baseball Gauge says “not even close,” giving Sheffield a decisive 68.0-54.5 victory (for various fielding math reasons, I don’t really think Win Shares is worth talking about when it comes to total player value, but I know that some people were interested in what Michael Hoban had to say last summer, so here are those numbers, too, which are also available at the Baseball Gauge; Sheffield again has the edge, 420.6-332.5. Not that anyone cares about my position on this, but if Bill James ever completed the metric and published Loss Shares data, as well, we could have a real conversation about this). For me, in order to pick Vlad, you have to put SO much faith in the number that Baseball-Reference specifically is giving us that it seems likely that Sheffield had the more valuable career. Again, if you want to go absolutely all-in on Baseball-Reference’s defensive calculations, be my guest; but know that there are other opinions out there, and Sheffield is undeniably most negatively viewed by that one particular calculation.
By the RC/27/AIR metric which mirrors OPS+ but emphasizes OBP at the cost of outs, at their peaks, Sheffield is, by a large degree, the better hitter. And, heavens to Manfred, there is no way in the worId that RF is a significant enough defensive position to sway judgment in Guerrero’s favor. He would have to be Clemente on a Kawasaki to make up the difference
I have voted for Guerrero but will vote for Sheffield next round.
To play a bit of Devil’s advocate:
We’re not comparing a good RF to an average defender, or even a bad defender. If you do trust BB-Ref’s defensive stats, then Sheffield exceeds bad by a high margin – he’s one of the worst defensive players ever. Now, part of this is because he was so good offensively that he was able to have along career, most of it in the NL, and teams had to put him somewhere, and it was usually a position just outside his competence range. Back when he was a bad shortstop, he probably should have been at 3B. When he was a bad 3B, he probably should have already been shifted to the corner OF. And when he was a bad corner OF, he may have needed to get shifted to 1B. His career Rfield, by BB-Ref, is -195. He had one season where it was positive, in 2007, playing 106 innings of LF/RF with Detroit, making no errors in 26 chances, and getting one assist. That was good for +2. His worst ten seasons (11, actually, because of a three-way tie) are all in the double digits – -18, -16, -15, -15, -14, -14, -13, -12, -10, -10, and -10.
Now, to be fair, there have been 1503 seasons in the expansion era where players had an Rfield of -10 or worse. It’s not a rare thing. One of them even belongs to Guerrero – a -10 in 2004, his MVP season. Of course, for career Rfield, Vladdy has 7, a +202 differential over Sheffield. To have 11 seasons that bad, however, is pretty rare. Manny Ramirez had 7. The only person with more is also the only person with a career Rfield worse than Sheff – Derek Jeter.
Quick correction: He actually did have ten seasons of -10 or worse, not 11 – I posted the -18 and -14 separately, but those were for partial seasons in 1993 with Florida and San Diego, for a -32, his only truly abyssmal season. -30 or worse is extremely rare, only done 9 times, with nobody having more than one such season. The other 8 are Dunn, Castellanos, Matt Kemp, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Chris Gomez, Dante Bichette, and Michael Young.
CC,
Find me a poor fielding catcher and we’ll score 7 runs a game:
RF Sheffield
SS Young
LF Braun
CF Kemp
1B Dunn
3B Castellanos
DH Bichette
2B Weeks
Pretty odd that all these horrid “RField” seasons have occurred in the last 25 years, no? Like, where’s Frank Howard…or Greg Luzinski, Dick Stuart, etc…. ?
Luzinski and Howard both have 5 seasons of -10 Rfield or worse. Luzinski’s worst were a -20 and a -19, while Howard posted a -18 and two -17’s. Stuarts worst was -13 – it might just be hard for a 1B to rack up as much negative Rfield as guys in the OF.
For a poor fielding C, Dick Dietz in 1970 is your man. -20 Rfield but a slash line of .300/.426/.515.
You might score 7 runs a game, but you also might have your pitching staff revolt on you.
CC,
What’s really odd is that the “Horrid Eight” all can play multiple positions – poorly, of course, but I believe that versatility provides some advantage.
Somewhere, perhaps on this site, it was mentioned that Dietz was “blackballed” for his union organizing skills? Am I allowed to use that term in 2020?
A couple of things:
CC:
I would definitely emphasize that Total Zone likes Sheffield less than any other system. In fact, compare Total Zone to DRS. Let’s focus on Sheffield’s outfield years in the Total Zone era, 1994-2002 (season ages 25-33). In those years, he was -89 in 9,491.1 defensive innings (-9.4 per 1000 innings). In the DRS (2003-2009) era, his age 34-40 seasons, Sheffield played 4386.1 defensive innings of outfield, to the tune of -37 runs (-8.4 per 1000 innings). Is it possible that Sheffield was a better defensive outfielder in his late-30s than in his 20s? I suppose; maybe one could argue the steroids that one season helped; maybe one could argue that he was a natural infielder, and the time really helped him improve. But I would say the more probable thing is that Sheffield’s defensive numbers are, for whatever reason or combination of reasons, worse-looking than his actual defensive performance, and that other versions of WAR greatly help his case. Let’s say we again don’t touch his infield numbers (he was DEFINITELY a bad infielder), and let’s assume his DRS numbers are correct. Let’s make one tiny change: let’s just say that, rather than 1 run WORSE per 1000 innings as a young player, Sheffield was one run BETTER per 1000 innings (as opposed to how he performed as an older player). That would give him 18 additional defensive runs, which is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5-2 WAR. That’s probably not enough to be a definitive advantage over Guerrero, but it seems a lot more reasonable to me. (Again, no dog in this fight; I suspect Sheffield was a little better, but I think they’re probably both short of COG membership at this point, anyway, so it’s mostly academic.)
Paul:
I noticed that you included both Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks. Please also note that the mid-to-late 00s Brewers also featured Prince Fielder. We did score a lot of runs – 5th, 7th, 3rd, 4th, and 5th from 2007-2011 – but rarely gave the pitchers any help… and they weren’t that good of pitchers to begin with. Still two playoff appearances in that span is nothing to sneeze at. There are worse strategies than trying to both score and allow a lot of runs. Take for example last year’s Marlins, who tried to while allowing many runs, and without scoring too many. That’s a much worse strategy. 🙂
Obviously, it’s unlikely that Sheffield actually got better as he got older, but it’s at least plausible. It wouldn’t be plausible at, say, SS – but for a corner OF spot, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he became better as he aged at learning batted ball tendencies, positioning himself better, and exhibiting better range not due to speed but due to more intelligent handling of the position.
It’s similar, in some ways, to his Rbaser numbers. Now, a difference between +3 and +1 isn’t huge, but his best three seasons for Rbaser. all +3, were at ages 34, 36 and 38. Now, we know for sure he wasn’t actually faster at those ages – but in his last 5 seasons, ages 36 to 40, he stole 48 bases and was only caught 11 times. That’s a lot better than this career SB%. It seems like he got better baseball instincts in his dotage.
Yes, and heavens to Pythagarus, if you score 3 and allow 2, you win a helluva lot more games (112 wins) than scoring 6 and allowing 5 (96 wins)
Main: Alex Rodriguez, Scott Rolen, Ted Simmons
Secondary: Ken Boyer, Todd Helton, Minnie Minoso
We’re into the final half-day for vote changes. While it looks like A-Rod is running away with it on the primary ballot (leading Rolen 11-5, with Dahlen and surprising Ted Simmons a couple back at 4), there’s an extremely interesting secondary ballot fight going on.
Stan Coveleski leads with 6 mentions… however, there’s a pack of four players just one vote back (Boyer, Helton, Minoso, and Williams), with Bobby Abreu also in it at 4. Heck, even Willie Randolph at 3 isn’t that far back if a couple people in a row named him.
So if you’re interested in shaking up any of these races, it’s well worth casting (or even changing!) a vote. (Also, as one of the “unofficial” tabulators, if you’re going to make a vote change, it’s a heck of a lot easier to find a new comment at the bottom of the thread than if you reply to your own comment somewhere in the middle. I miss numbered comments ever so much, and I will never stop wishing for their return!)
This is a tough round for the holdovers. I could say the new guys are safe (or elected) and give some support for the holdovers on the bubble. But, I think I will stay with the intent of the exercise, and go with the best players on the ballot.
Primary: A-Rod, Rolen, Dahlen
Secondary: Helton, Drysdale, Williams
Fun fact: all five Dahlen voters have also voted for A-Rod, putting two shortstops on a large chunk of our ballots. Also, Doug’s is the third of the five to include Rolen. Every ballot outside of those three is unique.
Going strategic this round:
Primary:
Dawson, Nettles, Wallace
Secondary:
Coveleski, Randolph, Smith
I had initially been thinking the 70+ WAR trifecta of A-Rod, Dahlen and Wallace but 2 of them don’t really need help right now.
Decided to make a 25 man roster of best-of-not-quite-COG-yet players. Here’s what I had:
DH: Ortiz
C: Simmons, Munson
1B: Palmeiro, Helton
2B: Randolph (Kent a bit short still)
3B: Nettles, Boyer (Bell and Bando similar but not compelling)
SS: Dahlen, Wallace
LF: Clarke, Williams
CF: Ashburn, Dawson (Edmonds a bit behind)
RF: Smith (I like Sheffield and Guerrero but not quite yet)
LHP: Newhouser (John the only other interesting lefthander)
RHP: Ruffing, Lyons, Sutton, Reuschel, Tiant, Coveleski, Drysdale, McGinnity (Faber, Willis, Cone, Bunning just below)
RP: Gossage (last of top 4 outside)
Came up with 15 position players and 10 pitchers, assuming A-Rod will make it in this round.
Allen and Minoso also intriguing and could replace 1 or 2 pitchers for some lists.
McGwire and Sosa to me should be VC guys, not all-time greats from enhancement.
Interestingly, only 7 of those 25 are not on either primary or secondary ballots:
Munson, Palmeiro, Clarke, Newhouser, Ruffing, McGinnity, Gossage.
The two ballots and redemptions have brought most of the likely candidates to the fore, it seems
For my money, I’d rather have McGwire than Palmeiro, and I’d have Edmonds first among equals in that group of CF, but that’s pretty academic. It’s a really good list; Hall of Famers, all, I’d say. But I actually think it’s pretty cool that there isn’t an “obvious” miss among the group, in terms of someone who CLEARLY should be in, but has been kept waiting.
There is one glaring omission, and it’s at third base, and it’s someone currently on the ballot. Scott Rolen is the class of these 3B. In fact, I might go Rolen-Allen, and leave Nettles and Boyer off completely! But yeah – third seems to be a position that we’ve struggled to parse as an electorate. Reminds me of back in much earlier days of COG voting, when it seemed the Biggio-Alomar-Sandberg-Whitaker-Grich logjam would NEVER clear up; now they’re all in. That may be the case for Allen-Nettles-Boyer one day, too.
I’m going to revert to tactical voting because A-Rod’s election is pretty secure (and Rolen is looking pretty safe to stay on the ballot), and possibly the secondary ballot is more interesting than the primary. My two favourite overlooked players (Tiant and Wallace) are both doing terribly with these 1975 rounds, but so are most of the holdovers, and Lyons, Nettles and Wallace are all looking at risk.
To go back into the mists of time the rules have no prohibition on tactical voting or any directive about how to decide your vote (thank you, Birtelcom, may he rest in peace, for the lack of prescription). It’s between you and your conscience…
Primary: Lyons, Nettles, Wallace
Secondary: Billy Williams, Reggie Smith and Monte Irvin
Update!
With a day left, here are the results as I have them, with 16 ballots cast:
PRIMARY
12 – A-Rod
===========75% (12)
===========50% (8)
6 – Scott Rolen
5 – Bill Dahlen
4 – Ted Simmons
===========25% (4)
3 – Don Sutton
2 – Pretty much everyone else… I’m not going to list all 9 of them.
===========10% (2)
0 – Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant
Without receiving at least two more votes, Rick Reuschel will fall off the primary ballot this round; Tiant has plenty of rounds remaining.
SECONDARY
===========50% (8)
7 – Stan Coveleski, Billy Williams
6 – Todd Helton
5 – Ken Boyer, Minnie Minoso
4 – Bobby Abreu, Willie Randolph
===========50% (4)
3 – Don Drysdale
2 – Monte Irvin, Andy Pettitte, Reggie Smith
===========50% (2)
1 – Tim Hudson
Hudson would fall off the secondary ballot if he fails to receive another vote. The Dodger Dons, though on different ballots, have the same number of votes (3). And it’s still anybody’s ball game on the secondary. So with a day to go, there’s still a lot to be decided!
This matches my count. The 16 ballots have been cast by Jeff Harris, CC, Voomo, Bruce Gilbert, Gary Bateman, opal611, Chris C, Dr. Doom, JEV, Paul E, Richard Chester, Andy, Doug, Josh Davis, Dave Humbert, and Hub Kid.
The 9 players with 2 votes a piece on the main ballot are: Ortiz, Ashburn, Allen, Sheffield, Vlad, Nettles, Wallace, Lyons and Dawson
With A-Rod all but assured of election, our two newest CoG inductees ranked 1-2 in RBI for the years both were active. In fact, their stats are reasonably close right down the line, with the notable exception of WAR.
Both, undeniably among the great hitters of our lifetimes, and leading stars on the All-PED teams….
1B Palmeiro
2B Boone?
3B Caminiti
SS A-Rod, Tejada
RF Sosa
LF Manny
CF Bonds
DH McGwire
SP Clemens
Catcher, I-Rod? Piazza? Sigh
Two Hall of Famers…. I believe the suspicion regarding Piazza was “bacne” and Rodriguez was the dramatic weight loss? Or playing for the Texas Rangers in general?
You may recall Javy Lopez of the Braves taking weight off and slamming 40 homers in a free agent walk year?
On another note, how do the recent goings on in Houston effect the Cooperstown chances of Bregman (way too early) and Altuve?
Seems that by the reactions of other players, the Astros’ sign-stealing is considered (by the players) to be just as egregious, if not more so, than taking steroids. Will Hall voters feel the same though? I remember having discussions on this board about whether bat-corking was equal to steroids, and I believe there were a variety of opinions.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/01/19/ivan-rodriguez-appears-to-deny-using-steroids-during-career/96795824/
It takes a little bit of the fun out of things….
Good question about the Houston players. They aren’t yet at that point, maybe they can atone.
As to chemicals, I think that generally, baseball writers have known forever that players cheat, but I think that if you go back to the 70’s or earlier, it wasn’t considered systemic.
But eventually, it clearly became that way in some sports. Track and field, certainly football. There’s a Pete Gent novel “The Franchise” which was written in the early 80’s which talks about it.
Put Cano at second, and remove the question mark.
Doug,
Good call….In that case, call it 7.5 runs/game in lieu of 7
Sad that we won’t get to vote until next year (hopefully!), it’s just getting interesting. For the main ballot, I’m okay with A-Rod getting in, and also okay with not voting for him (I feel a bit differently about the untested 90s and getting caught in the current era, although push come to shove I could convince myself that his talent is enough to get a vote).
Main ballot:
Rolen, Dahlen, Reuschel
For the secondary ballot, it would be just fine for Coveleski to get a second look, but I feel like the best player for me on the secondary ballot is Reggie Smith, so I want him to stay on and hopefully be on it enough next time this exercise comes around to advocate for him a bit.
Secondary ballot:
Smith, Coveleski, Drysdale
Main: Rodriguez, Rolen, Reuschel
Secondary: Irvin, Minoso, Smith
Final results!
There were 18 ballots cast in each category.
Primary:
=============75% (14)
13 – Alex Rodriguez
=============50% (9)
8 – Scott Rolen
6 – Bill Dahlen
=============25% (5)
4 – Ted Simmons
3 – Don Sutton
2 – Dick Allen, Richie Ashburn, Andre Dawson, Vladimir Guerrero, Ted Lyons, Graig Nettles, David Ortiz, Rick Reuschel, Greg Sheffield, Bobby Wallace
=============10% (2)
0 – Luis Tiant
Tiant loses a round, but Reuschel was saved from the Secondary Ballot by receiving a vote on each of the last two ballots cast.
Secondary:
=============75% (14)
=============50% (9)
8 – Stan Coveleski
7 – Billy Williams
6 – Todd Helton, Minnie Minoso
5 – Ken Boyer
=============25% (5)
4 – Bobby Arbeu, Don Drysdale, Willie Randolph, Reggie Smith
3 – Monte Irvin
2 – Andy Pettitte
=============10% (2)
1 – Tim Hudson
Hudson falls off altogether. Reggie Smith has the most interesting trajectory on this ballot: no votes through 14 ballots cast, then 4-for-4 to round things out and finish middle-of-the-pack. His position really was much more precarious than that. A tight race at the top elevates Coveleski to take the place of the newly-elected A-Rod.
With a first timer elected, two newcomers added to the main ballot and no dropoffs, our next election will feature 16 holdovers on the main ballot. Must be a record.
I just had this feeling that was wrong, because I remembered when we couldn’t seem to figure out which second baseman was going to be elected first, and we were having trouble electing pitchers, and the birth years were really strong. I looked until I found one: 1934 part 2. 17 holdovers were on the list: Lou Whitaker, John Smoltz, Bob Gibson, Roberto Clemente, Sandy Koufax, Al Kaline, Ron Santo, Juan Marichal, Craig Biggio, Bobby Grich, Harmon Killebrew, Edgar Martinez, Willie McCovey, Ryne Sandberg, Dick Allen, Kenny Lofton, Eddie Murray. All have since been elected… except for the one.
Doom,
Somewhat strange that Allen was, arguably, the best hitter of that group of 17 holdovers. And, when you think of ‘great’ ballplayers, you typically think of hitters.
I stand corrected. Obviously, you have a better memory than me, as there were frequently 16 or more players on the holdover list in the 1890s and 1900s rounds, including 19 for the 1897 round.
I believe the next election round will be Allen’s 38th straight on the holdover list, since the 1889 round. Someone who’s been keeping track will have to advise whether that’s a record.
To answer the question, I went with my go-to, which is, “How much did I personally vote for Kevin Brown?” I know that I voted for him 68 times in 70 elections, beginning with 1921 and ending when he was elected, in 1974 part 3. The two rounds I didn’t vote for him were 1886 (when I cast a Pete Alexander-Home Run Baker- Ty Cobb ballot) and 1917 (when I cast a Lou Boudreau-Pee Wee Reese-Bob Feller ballot). So I went back and checked those two years, and Brown WAS on the ballot both times. I didn’t go back any further, but he was on the ballot AT LEAST 70 straight rounds – over half of COG history. I was never an Alomar, Biggio, or Glavine voter, but those guys were on FOREVER (at least it seemed so at the time). So I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them made it 38+ consecutive ballots.
So, as it’s been over two weeks since we had a comment, and now we know the season is being pushed back at least two weeks – can anybody think of a fun short term project we could do? Weathering out the virus storm is going to be tough enough without any baseball. Could we get a new thread for brainstorming, perhaps?
Great idea, CC. I would hate to see us all give up on the site. I’ll try to think of something, too.
A reasonable question. I’d be interested in something like an all-best start team (maybe the first seven seasons) to be followed by extended ordinariness. There are a surprising number of them–Ernie Banks, Bobby Feller, Dale Murphy. Dizzy Dean, Paul Waner, George Sisler.
I’ll quibble with Waner. He was excellent for 12 years, through his age-34 season.
Feller, also, had 5 excellent seasons, missed 4 years to the war, came back with a 10 WAR season, and was still above average at age 32, fifteen years after he debuted.
I’ve often thought that an easy and interesting thread/project here would be to have a thread for a given year of baseball – so, like, the topic is 1934 and the person making the initial post (if someone other than Doug writes it, of course) could point out some interesting things about the season (be it standard stuff like batting leaders or quirky stuff like milestones no one realized they were reaching). Then the folks here could dig in and find their own things of interest through the stats, go off on side discussions over whether this player had a better career than this other player, if this stat overvalues a certain player, talk about weird personalities of the game, etc. It’s always been the weird side stuff that has appealed to me here, which stats are of course a vector to, but the stories and history are the fun parts.
Anyway, that’s something I’ve thought of, but I don’t contribute enough here to really be able to drive that. I’ve idly thought that if that proved to be a fun way of discussing things it could be a low key series relatively in perpetuity, like if people wanted to just chat about baseball you could do, say, 1871 for a couple of weeks, then 1881, then 1891, etc, and if it was still of interest after reaching the modern day, then go back to 1872 etc and you’d have new things to look into about the players you looked into 15 threads back. If what this place is about is just some baseball fans talking about baseball and needing any excuse of structure to do it, that’s as good as I’ve got.
Hope you’re all taking care out there.
We could have a discussion about players who started their careers like a house on fire and quickly flamed out due to injury or whatever. Gene Bearden and Beau Bell are 2 examples.
He’s been lightly discussed, but Vean Gregg still has one of the best starts to a pitching career ever – I know Doc Gooden just barely eclipsed him.
Bells, I actually like that idea a lot. One arbitrary season becomes a locus for all sorts of discussion – on players, teams, how the game was changing, interesting news items that got lost in time, etc.
I created a spreadsheet in the form of a play index. It can find those games in which the winning team overcame a deficit. Shown below are those games in which the visiting team overcame an 8 run or more deficit. This list contains 9-inning games only. I hope the columns line up sensibly. visitor home deficit …… …… ….visiting home
score score overcome …..date …… ….team …… team
…… …… …… …… ……
14 …… 12 …… 9 …… 19310728 …… CHA …… NYA
12 …… 11 …… 8 …… 19340821 …… CLE …… PHA
18 …… 12 …… 10 …… 19380612 …… DET …… WS1
12 …… 10 …… 8 …… 19390713 …… PHA …… CHA
9 …… 8 …… 8 …… 19390830 …… PHA …… SLA
10 …… 8 …… 8 …… 19430618 …… PHI …… BRO
10 …… 8 …… 8 …… 19470908 …… NY1 …… PIT
15 …… 10 …… 9 …… 19500418 …… NYA …… BOS
14 …… 12 …… 11 …… 19520615 …… SLN …… NY1
11 …… 9 …… 8 …… 19550418 …… CLE …… KC1
11 …… 10 …… 8 …… 19560902 …… BAL …… BOS
15 …… 13 …… 8 …… 19590814 …… CIN …… PHI
12 …… 11 …… 9 …… 19610623 …… PHI …… PIT
10 …… 8 …… 8 …… 19680609 …… SLN …… CIN
15 …… 11 …… 8 …… 19700414 …… SFN …… ATL
11 …… 9 …… 8 …… 19710730 …… NYA …… MIN
11 …… 8 …… 8 …… 19720902 …… NYN …… HOU
9 …… 8 …… 8 …… 19780705 …… ATL …… LAN
14 …… 11 …… 9 …… 19790615 …… KCA …… MIL
14 …… 11 …… 8 …… 19790811 …… PIT …… PHI
9 …… 8 …… 8 …… 19890904 …… SFN …… CIN
12 …… 11 …… 10 …… 19900821 …… PHI …… LAN
9 …… 8 …… 8 …… 19960512 …… NYA …… CHA
13 …… 12 …… 8 …… 19990622 …… CHN …… COL
10 …… 8 …… 8 …… 20020512 …… SLN …… CIN
12 …… 10 …… 8 …… 20060821 …… OAK …… TOR
10 …… 9 …… 8 …… 20110707 …… CHN …… WAS
15 …… 9 …… 9 …… 20120421 …… NYA …… BOS
10 …… 8 …… 8 …… 20120818 …… TBA …… ANA
14 …… 9 …… 8 …… 20140620 …… TOR …… CIN
13 …… 12 …… 8 …… 20150428 …… WAS …… ATL
16 …… 13 …… 10 …… 20160602 …… SEA …… SDN
It did not line up as I expected.
Column 1 is visiting team score
Column 2 is home team score
Column 3 is the deficit that was overcome
Column 4 is the date
Column 5 is the visiting team
Column is the home team
Richard,
This one didn’t make your list…probably because the Pirates may have scored in the midle of the game as the Phillies were coming back….From WIKIPEDIA:
“If we don’t win, I’ll walk back to Pittsburgh”
After his playing career, Rooker, well known for speaking his mind as a player, joined the Pirates’ radio and television broadcast team, with whom he worked as a color analyst from 1981 (one year after he retired) through 1993. He also worked for ESPN from 1994 to 1997.
Rooker’s most famous moment as a broadcaster came on June 8, 1989, during a Pirates’ road game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Veterans Stadium. The Pirates scored 10 runs in the top of the first inning, including three on a Barry Bonds home run. As the Pirates’ cross-state rivals came to bat in the bottom of the first, Rooker said on the air, “If we don’t win this one, I don’t think I’d want to be on that plane ride home. Matter of fact, if we don’t win, I’ll walk back to Pittsburgh.” Both Von Hayes and Steve Jeltz hit two home runs (the latter would hit only five during his Major League career) to trigger a Phillies comeback. In the eighth inning the Phillies, now trailing only 11–10, scored the tying run on a
wild pitch, then took the lead on Darren Daulton’s two-run single and went on to win 15–11. Rooker had to wait until after the season to make good on his “walk home” promise, conducting a 300-mile-plus (480 km) charity walk from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh.[5]
Paul E: My list is only for the visiting team being the winner. The game you are talking about does appear on my list of home teams being the winner. I will soon post that list. Also my list is for the time period 1907-2019. Complete data for prior seasons was not available when I created my spreadsheet.
Also my spreadsheet shows 14 games in which the visitors scored 10 runs in the first inning (remember this is for 9-inning games only). The game that Paul E cited is the only one in which the visitors lost.
For those of you who are interested here is the list of home teams who overcame an 8-run deficit for a victory. It’s for 9-inning games only and covers the time period 1907-2019.
Col. A is the visitor’s runs scored
Col. B is the home team’s runs scored
Col. C is the run deficit that was overcome
Col. D is the date of the game
Col. E is the visiting team
Col. F is the home team.
I hope this aligns OK.
A ….. B ….. C …………….D………………………E……………..F
8 ….. 15 ….. 8 ….. 19110531 ….. CIN ….. SLN
15 ….. 16 ….. 12 ….. 19110618 ….. CHA ….. DET
9 ….. 13 ….. 8 ….. 19110814 ….. BRO ….. BSN
9 ….. 10 ….. 9 ….. 19130930 ….. BRO ….. PHI
9 ….. 10 ….. 8 ….. 19150908 ….. DET ….. CHA
11 ….. 12 ….. 8 ….. 19200921 ….. WS1 ….. DET
10 ….. 11 ….. 9 ….. 19210704 ….. CHA ….. CLE
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19230915 ….. DET ….. WS1
15 ….. 17 ….. 12 ….. 19250615 ….. CLE ….. PHA
9 ….. 13 ….. 9 ….. 19260610 ….. PIT ….. PHI
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19290523 ….. WS1 ….. PHA
9 ….. 13 ….. 8 ….. 19290801 ….. SLA ….. WS1
10 ….. 11 ….. 8 ….. 19290802 ….. DET ….. PHA
11 ….. 13 ….. 9 ….. 19300928 ….. CIN ….. CHN
11 ….. 15 ….. 8 ….. 19330527 ….. CHA ….. NYA
11 ….. 17 ….. 8 ….. 19330603 ….. PHA ….. NYA
14 ….. 15 ….. 9 ….. 19330701 ….. PHA ….. SLA
11 ….. 12 ….. 8 ….. 19340714 ….. NYA ….. DET
13 ….. 14 ….. 11 ….. 19360617 ….. PHA ….. SLA
9 ….. 10 ….. 8 ….. 19380524 ….. CIN ….. BSN
10 ….. 12 ….. 8 ….. 19400625 ….. PHA ….. SLA
11 ….. 12 ….. 8 ….. 19400703 ….. PHA ….. BOS
9 ….. 10 ….. 8 ….. 19460811 ….. CHN ….. PIT
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19500518 ….. SLN ….. BRO
14 ….. 15 ….. 11 ….. 19500828 ….. CLE ….. BOS
14 ….. 15 ….. 8 ….. 19590907 ….. DET ….. CLE
8 ….. 12 ….. 8 ….. 19650620 ….. KC1 ….. DET
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19670428 ….. PHI ….. ATL
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19670820 ….. CAL ….. BOS
13 ….. 16 ….. 8 ….. 19690510 ….. WS2 ….. SE1
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19740610 ….. PIT ….. SDN
12 ….. 15 ….. 9 ….. 19770515 ….. SLN ….. ATL
9 ….. 10 ….. 9 ….. 19780613 ….. CLE ….. CHA
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19790907 ….. TOR ….. CLE
9 ….. 12 ….. 8 ….. 19800419 ….. NYN ….. CHN
10 ….. 11 ….. 10 ….. 19840928 ….. MIN ….. CLE
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19850513 ….. MIN ….. NYA
9 ….. 12 ….. 8 ….. 19860520 ….. CLE ….. MIL
12 ….. 13 ….. 8 ….. 19860829 ….. DET ….. CAL
12 ….. 13 ….. 9 ….. 19870607 ….. SDN ….. ATL
11 ….. 15 ….. 10 ….. 19890608 ….. PIT ….. PHI
11 ….. 12 ….. 9 ….. 19920509 ….. ATL ….. SLN
9 ….. 10 ….. 8 ….. 19930618 ….. KCA ….. OAK
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19930725 ….. CAL ….. NYA
9 ….. 10 ….. 8 ….. 19940628 ….. SDN ….. COL
8 ….. 11 ….. 8 ….. 19940715 ….. HOU ….. PIT
12 ….. 15 ….. 11 ….. 19940718 ….. SLN ….. HOU
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19950604 ….. TOR ….. CLE
10 ….. 11 ….. 8 ….. 19960415 ….. CAL ….. SEA
13 ….. 14 ….. 9 ….. 19970516 ….. SFN ….. MON
12 ….. 15 ….. 8 ….. 19980912 ….. MIL ….. CHN
11 ….. 20 ….. 8 ….. 19990507 ….. TBA ….. CLE
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 19990703 ….. KCA ….. CLE
12 ….. 14 ….. 8 ….. 19990831 ….. ANA ….. CLE
16 ….. 17 ….. 8 ….. 20000505 ….. OAK ….. TEX
9 ….. 13 ….. 8 ….. 20010927 ….. SDN ….. COL
9 ….. 13 ….. 8 ….. 20020628 ….. CHN ….. CHA
10 ….. 14 ….. 8 ….. 20030826 ….. PHI ….. MON
8 ….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 20030927 ….. MIN ….. DET
8 ….. 10 ….. 8 ….. 20040704 ….. DET ….. COL
11 ….. 20 ….. 8 ….. 20050621 ….. TBA ….. NYA
13 ….. 14 ….. 9 ….. 20060516 ….. TEX ….. NYA
9 ….. 10 ….. 8 ….. 20080530 ….. COL ….. CHN
17 ….. 18 ….. 9 ….. 20080704 ….. FLO ….. COL
10 ….. 11 ….. 10 ….. 20090525 ….. TBA ….. CLE
10 ….. 11 ….. 9 ….. 20090630 ….. BOS ….. BAL
13 ….. 14 ….. 10 ….. 20090720 ….. MIN ….. OAK
9 ….. 10 ….. 8 ….. 20100520 ….. CIN ….. ATL
10 ….. 12 ….. 9 ….. 20100825 ….. ATL ….. COL
10 ….. 14 ….. 8 ….. 20180414 ….. ATL ….. CHN
12 ….. 14 ….. 9 ….. 20180705 ….. MIA ….. WAS
13 ….. 14 ….. 10 ….. 19010425 ….. MLA ….. DET
I just noticed that the last game on the list took place in 1901. My original spreadsheet had games from 1901-2019 but because there was missing data from 1901-1906 I decided to ignore those years. When I sorted and deleted I failed to delete that 1901 game. Incidentally that game occurred on the second day of baseball in the American League. My list shows 71 games from 1907-2019, a span of 113 years. There have been 6 clusters of 3 games ranging from a time line of 3 weeks to just under 4 months, in 1911, 1929, 1933, 1994, 1999 and 2009.
Richard:
“There have been 6 clusters of 3 games ranging from a time line of 3 weeks to just under 4 months, in 1911, 1929, 1933, 1994, 1999 and 2009.”
Which kind of makes sense (versus random) in that even 1911, like the others, was a relatively high scoring season
There is at least one game missing from your list. I was in the right field bleachers for this one:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA198706260.shtml
Scratch that. 9 inning game.
Yankees scored 11 runs in 1 inning in that game. Other games in which they scored 11 runs in an inning: 9/28/1923, 7/26/1928, 8/28/1936, 5/3/1951, 5/10/1952, 7/3/2010, 7/28/2015. That’s for all games , not just 9-inning ones.
I hate to add a comment, because I love seeing 162 comments on a baseball thing. But I want you all to know that I sent Doug a post that should go up in the next few days. So don’t stop checking the site! Looking forward to hearing from you all!
Thanks for the alert.
Well I’ll go ahead and make it 165, to match Maury Wills’ record.
744=1
It’s a mathematical identity that I just learned; 744=1. That doesn’t sound true, but it is; I’ll explain it to you.
Much as I hate to break up our comments=games thing we had going on, I was perusing Devon White’s baseball-reference page, wondering if I could do some sort of project, like “make me a Hall of Famer.” Might be a cool post. Anyway, I noticed that he has 47.3 WAR – a lot, when you think about it. And I remembering thinking, “Doesn’t Ralph Kiner have around 47 WAR? And could those to BE any more different from one another?”
I looked it up, and I was right: Kiner had 47.9 WAR. What’s crazy is that, before the runs:wins conversion. Without that conversion, the two of them are exactly one run apart: 484 Runs Above Replacement for White; 485 Runs Above Replacement for Kiner.
So, I decided that I would do a little math. Here are their numbers in each category:
Rbat……Rbaser……Rdp…….Rfield………Rpos……..Rrep
364…………….-5……….-7…………-40…………-62………233 – Kiner
-8………………40………18………..133…………..29………271 – White
The differences in each category are, respectively: 372, 45, 25, 173, 91, and 38 runs. In their own way, Devon White and Ralph Kiner are 744 runs apart in value – but they’re also 1 run apart in value. If they’re both 744 apart, AND 1 apart, then 744 MUST = 1. That’s the conclusion I’ve come to. 🙂
The fact that these two ALSO couldn’t be more different in biography only adds to things: one played the majority of his career for one of the oldest professional baseball teams around, finishing his career with each another original NL and AL team; the other played for 6 franchises, all but one of them (2 seasons with the Dodgers) expansion teams. One of them was an iron man, rarely missing a game, averaging 147 in a 154-game era (take out his final year, and it’s a 151-game average); the other struggled to remain in the lineup, averaging only 114 in the 162-game era. One of them was a White player whose career began before the color barrier was broken; the other was a Black player. One was born in the US; the other is the greatest player in his country’s history (White is Jamaican; unless someone out there is a big Chili Davis fan, I don’t really think it’s that arguable). If only we’d been dealing with infield/outfield or lefty/righty (both were outfielders, obviously, and both threw right; Kiner batted righty and White was a switch hitter), then they would be perfect opposites.
So here’s my challenge to you all: how many of you can come up with similarly close-but-distant players? I strongly doubt anyone can top this one, but I throw down the gauntlet here for anyone to find other such pairs. I look forward to any great insights! (If you’re going to look for one, I’d start with great defensive players – your Mark Belangers, Ozzie Smiths, Brooks Robinsons, and the like – and look for sluggers near them in value. But maybe someone else has a better idea. The only rule is that both players have to be position players – obviously if you use pitchers, you could get some CRAZY divergences… though, honestly, they probably wouldn’t even get THAT much bigger than this one. So happy searching, everyone!
I couldn’t resist, so I did my suggested ones on my own:
Mark Belanger and David Justice, 18 runs apart; 876 runs apart
Mark Belanger and Giancarlo Stanton, 7 runs apart; 913 runs apart! (I don’t think this one really counts, though, because active players make this one tough)
Brooks Robinson and Jeff Bagwell, 73=1105
Ozzie Smith and Frank Thomas, 34=1624
Mark McGwire and Jackie Robinson, 29=636
(Compare to Mark McGwire and Harmon Killebrew, 49=194 – not that different)
Johnny Evers and Ralph Kiner, 3=838
Johnny Evers and Devon White (had to do it), 4=266
Johnny Evers and Jimmy Rollins, 13=296
Willie Wilson and Devon White, 22=212
Joe Tinker and Fred McGriff, 46=1071
Bert Campaneris and Fred McGriff, 30=954
Bert Campaneris and Lance Berkman, 22=960
Fred McGriff and Lance Berkman, 8=204
As you can probably see, I just hung out in a couple sections of the WAR leaderboards and compared players.
This could actually be a cool way to do similarity scores. I’d just have to think of a way to scale it to players with, and then find a way to account for playing time. It could be done, though, I think! (I guess it’s somewhat similar to what Adam Darowski built at Hall of Stats, now that I think about it.)
Doom,
To quote Bill James when comparing Harmon Killebrew and some high average hitter (Carew?) , “I’ll take the masher”. I remember watching Devo play in the posrtseason in 1992-1993 and he looked like Mickey Mantle but, obviously, that was a very small sample. Didn’t hit for a high average, didn’t take a walk…but, to his credit, he had extra base power
doom
How about Ozzie Smith & Sam Crawford?
If I did the math correctly, they are less than 2 WAR apart for their careers; however, roughly 1,232 miscellaneous, differentiating war calculatory components got them there
Doom
Sorry, throw on another 23 for “Rdp”
so, for Crawford and Ozzie it’s about 35 runs = 1,232 or 1,255
WTFWIT? I’m using WAR and you’re using RAR…sorry
Maury Wills and Harold Baines, 25=841
Now for some close ones
Reggie Sanders and Carl Crawford are pretty close; 16=214
Juan Gonzalez and Boog Powell, 9=125
Kent Hrbek and Kirk Gibson, 4=167
Kent Hrbek and Steve Garvey, 8=131
Chili Davis and Harold Baines, 11=137
In the weirdest close one:
Ray Lankford and Ernie Lombardi, 10=149
The winner, for this part of the WAR leaderboard, anyway, is:
Kent Hrbek and Boog Powell, 3=100
Plenty of similarities between the two, of course. Both were lefty-hitting, righty-throwing first basemen; both played exactly 14 seasons for the team that drafted them. (Powell hung on and played three years for other teams, though; given that Hrbek is from Minnesota, it’s probably not likely he’d have done that, had it even been an option.) One man had 1776 hits, with 620 going for extra bases; the other had 1749 hits, 623 for extra bases. Both had OBPs in the .360s.
Powell was mentioned in MVP voting six times, to Hrbek’s twice, including three top-3 finishes for Powell and only one for Hrbek. Hrbek made only one All-Star team – as a rookie in 1982 for a 100-loss team; Powell was an All-Star four straight seasons, starting the middle two seasons. I think most people would think of them as players with similar types of play, but I think most would consider Powell the far greater player. (Inarguably, Powell had the better peak performance.) But seeing this… it’s really not THAT different, having one rather than the other.
—
After I checked all those and wrote this long paragraph, I found these, within 100 runs. The last one is uncanny:
Lonnie Smith and Roger Maris, 14=86
Paul O’Neill and Steve Garvey, 20=73
Magglio Ordonez and Juan Gonzalez, 0=63
When they retired, Adam Dunn and Juan Pierre had the exact same bWAR. I know the formula has been tweaked since then, and this is no longer true.
Pierre and Dunn are (now) 5 RAR apart – (202 for Dunn; 197 for Pierre). The differences are: 353 Rbat, 74 Rbaser, 26 Rdp, 154 Rfield, 109 Rpos, and 15 Rrep, for a total of 753 runs. Honestly, less different than I’d have thought. The main thing keeping them close together is that Pierre was primarily a corner outfielder for the last six years of his career. That’s a swing of ~50 runs in that category, as opposed to him staying in center (with the caveat, of course, that he would’ve had to play just as well in center as he did in left… which wouldn’t have happened).
Main: Dawson, Nettles, Simmons.
Secondary: Irvin, Randolph, Pettitte
I like Ortiz but I’m not going to push for him. The other guys are more worthy. It doesn’t look like he’s in danger of falling off but if he did I would support him over the secondary ballot. I doubt it will come to that. I’m a big Yankee fan but AROD can shove it. He’s done too much damage to baseball. Bonds might have knowingly taken steroids but he didn’t, in the testing era no less, recruit players on behalf of a drug dealer.
mosc, I believe you just set the record for the Latest Vote.
This round ended a month before the world ended.
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