Chicago Cubs: Confident Contenders

The Cubs were probably last season’s biggest surprise with 97 wins from a lineup heavy on young position players and experienced pitching. Looking to win 90 games again (a repeat Chicago last accomplished when Al Capone was the city’s most prominent citizen), Chicago has made some nice off-season moves that augur well for keeping the Northsiders at or near the top of the NL Central.

More after the jump.

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Quiz: Free Swingers (stumped)

2015 NL RoY Kris Bryant makes this list of modern batters who were not shy about taking their cuts. What is the unusual seasonal batting feat that only these players have achieved since 1901?

Our readers zeroed in on BABIP as part of the quiz answer, but didn’t get that only these players had a qualified season since 1901 with a .350 BABIP that was one-third higher than their overall batting average. Those seasons are after the jump.
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Circle of Greats Round 121 Balloting

This post is for voting and discussion in the 121st round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the second of two rounds of balloting that will bring the Circle of Greats membership to a total of 121, matching the current members of the Hall of Fame elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) in regular (116) or run-off (3) elections, plus the two members (Lou Gehrig, Roberto Clemente) enshrined by special election. This will be the final round of COG balloting until the next Hall of Fame members are elected by the BBWAA. Rules and lists are after the jump.

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Ruth’s Chris: Best and Worst First Ball Hitters

Or maybe it’s Chris is Ruth. In fact, if your name is (or sounds like) Chris, you can put up some Ruthian OPS scores when you put the first pitch in play, as shown by this list.

Rk Player OPS ▾ OPStot Diff PA PAtot AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG TB GDP
1 Chris Davis 1.554 .923 .631 74 670 74 36 10 0 11 23 .486 .486 1.068 79 1
2 Khris Davis 1.504 .828 .676 46 440 44 18 3 0 9 23 .409 .413 1.091 48 3
3 Kris Bryant 1.466 .858 .608 75 650 72 36 7 3 7 26 .500 .493 .972 70 2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/2/2016.

Those are the top 3 OPS scores from 2015 when putting the first pitch in play, based on a minimum 400 total PA and 40 first pitches put in play.

More after the jump.

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Circle of Greats Round 120 Balloting

This post is for voting and discussion in the 120th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the first of two rounds of balloting that will bring the Circle of Greats membership to a total of 121, matching the current members of the Hall of Fame elected by the Baseball Writers of America in regular (116) or run-off (3) elections, plus the two members (Lou Gehrig, Roberto Clemente) enshrined by special election. Rules and lists are after the jump.

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200 Game Batteries UPDATED

This post was first published early in 2016 to identify batteries (pitcher and catcher) with 200 or more regular season starts together. It is based on the Defensive Lineups pages for each team and season on Baseball-Reference.com. At that time (early 2016), those seasons only went back to 1914, whereas now (in early 2021) there are data for the entire modern era, back to 1901.

As I’ve received several queries about this article, I decided to update it to include the 1901-13 seasons and also, of course, the 2016-20 seasons as well. Doing so has increased the number of qualifying batteries from the original 26 up to 35 for the entire modern era. More on these long-term batteries is after the jump.

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Circle of Greats Supplemental Redemption Round

This Circle of Greats (COG) vote is not to induct anyone into the Circle, but only to select three players who will be restored back to the main ballot after having been previously dropped from eligibility. As with earlier redemption rounds, this is an opportunity for voters to reconsider past candidates who have previously fallen off the regular induction ballots. This “supplemental” redemption round is being conducted prior to the final two rounds of COG balloting that will consider only holdover candidates already on the COG ballot. 

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Baseball Hall of Fame: Recreating Cooperstown with WAR Leaders

KGJThe 21st century is quickly bringing about a variety of changes that the baseball community desperately needed. We now have real consequences for performance-enhancing drug users, instant replay to ensure that “human error” doesn’t affect the most pivotal moments, and cooler stats than ever at our fingertips. Coming up next, MLB is trying to create a safer in-stadium experience and continuing to experiment with ways to improve the pace of play.

Unfortunately, there is no indication that innovation fever will carry over to the National Baseball Hall of Fame anytime soon. Frustrating inconsistencies continue to plague its induction process.

Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza will become Cooperstown’s newest additions this summer. Both of their careers featured extraordinary peaks and impressive longevity, with Griffey in particular passing every conceivable empirical and intangible test of excellence.

But for reasons that still haven’t been revealed, three participating BBWAA voters excluded him from their ballots. So continues the sport’s longest streak: 80 years of experienced scribes finding some fault in every player’s career (no unanimous inductees).

Of course, Griffey does not need your pity. He’s headed for enshrinement regardless. The true victims of the process?

  • Stars of previous generations who were under-appreciated in times of weaker analysis
  • Griffey contemporaries who, despite historic accomplishments, have been withheld from the Hall for perceived “character issues” (several based on pure speculation)
  • Borderline candidates who fell off/will soon fall off the ballot because of arbitrary limits on years of eligibility and total selections allowed per voter.

 

There’s never going to be a consensus on how to fix this, and that’s not what this column is about, anyway. Instead, I invite you to escape from reality for the next few minutes as we imagine a Hall of Fame that would actually celebrate baseball’s most impactful players.

For this exercise, we will toss aside the narratives, accolades and personalities. The focus is solely on in-game value, as measured by Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Replacement. What names would be affiliated with baseball immortality if crushing the competition of your era was all that mattered?

More precisely, let’s set the HoF threshold as three or more career seasons of ranking in the MLB top 10 in WAR (pitchers and position players ranked separately). This criterion prioritizes each generation’s peak performers while weeding out “compilers” and flash-in-the-pan successes. It also conveniently creates a community of similar size to the current Cooperstown population.

Finally, we will simulate an induction schedule for these stars beginning in 1936, the same year the actual Hall of Fame began naming names. The following rules attempt to keep pace with the 20th century expansion of MLB teams/roster sizes and minimize the number of “empty years” (those with zero inductees):

  • Ten original members inducted in 1936
  • A maximum of two new members inducted annually for the rest of the Pre-Integration Era (1937-1946)
  • A maximum of three new members inducted annually throughout the Golden Era (1947-1972)
  • A maximum of four new members inducted annually throughout the Expansion Era (1973-Present)
  • Players become eligible for induction five years after their final MLB appearance
  • All qualified players are inducted in order of descending career WAR (higher WAR totals enter first)

 


WHO DIDN’T MAKE THE CUT—PITCHERS

TG_HoFEven the most dominant relievers in the sport’s history didn’t stand much of a chance of qualifying for a club that’s based on raw value. Cooperstown closers like Dennis Eckersley (inducted 2004), Rollie Fingers (1992) and Goose Gossage (2005) were undeniably making an impact with their high-leverage heroics, but their season-by-season WAR doesn’t reflect that due to a lack of innings.

Same goes for the most recent generation of saves leaders—Mariano Rivera (eligible in 2019), Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, etc. Rarely working outside of the ninth inning kept them all far below the threshold for passing this Hall of Fame’s test.

You will also notice the absence of several revered “winners” from this fraternity. Although consistently very good, Tom Glavine (inducted 2014) and Andy Pettitte (eligible in 2019) only twice posted seasons that cracked the top 10 in MLB pitcher WAR.

It’s certainly worth noting that Glavine and Pettitte were productive in the postseason, and that goes unacknowledged by our basic selection process. (I never said this would be perfect!)

Other real-life inductees who were snubbed include Chief Bender, Jack Chesbro, Jesse Haines, Waite Hoyt, Catfish Hunter, Addie Joss, Rube Marquard, Eppa Rixey, Edd Roush, Bruce Sutter, Don Sutton, and Hoyt Wilhelm.

 


WHO DIDN’T MAKE THE CUT—POSITION PLAYERS

edgar3What does it take to be among the league’s most valuable position players? Usually, some semblance of all-around skills—positive defense and/or base running contributions to complement damage inflicted with the bat.

Harmon Killebrew (inducted in 1984), Tony Perez (2000), Willie Stargell (1988), Edgar Martinez (currently eligible), Vladimir Guerrero (eligible in 2017) and Jim Thome (2018)—just to name a handful—fail to cross over into this Hall of Fame on the strength of their run production alone. Speedy singles specialist Lou Brock (eligible in 1985) fell short, too.

With few exceptions, catchers were heavily discriminated against. It boils down to how the physical demands of the job limit their total playing time (opportunities for WAR accumulation) relative to their peers. Missing from the list below: Yogi Berra (inducted in 1972), Roy Campanella (1969), Mickey Cochrane (1947), Bill Dickey (1954), Gabby Hartnett (1955) and Ivan Rodriguez (eligible in 2017).

Notable exclusions from the other positions include Luis Aparicio, Jake Beckley, Craig Biggio, Jim Bottomley, Roger Bresnahan, Max Carey, Orlando Cepeda, Fred Clarke, Earle Combs, Kiki Cuyler, Hugh Duffy, Buck Ewing, Rick Ferrell, Nellie Fox, Chick Hafey, Billy Herman, Harry Hooper, George Kell, George Kelly, Barry Larkin, Tony Lazzeri, Freddy Lindstrom, Heinie Manush, Rabbit Maranville, Bill Mazeroski, Tommy McCarthy, Eddie Murray, Kirby Puckett, Jim Rice, Phil Rizzuto, Ray Schalk, Red Shoendienst, Enos Slaughter, Joe Tinker, Pie Traynor, Lloyd Waner, Zack Wheat, Dave Winfield and Ross Youngs.

 


At last, we have arrived at baseball’s ultimate WAR-riors. There are 233 of them—105 pitchers, 128 position players.

Remember that the order of induction follows the rules stated earlier. And keep in mind, these players qualified based on their American League and/or National League production; the Hall of Fame recognizes earlier stars of the American Association/National Association/Union Association era as “Pioneer/Executive” inductees.

*Players who earn inductions during their first year of eligibility have been bolded

**Players who are not inducted in the actual Hall of Fame have been underlined

 

1936 Grover Cleveland Alexander, Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins, Walter Johnson, Nap Lajoie, Christy Mathewson, Kid Nichols, Tris Speaker, Honus Wagner, Cy Young

The BBWAA took awhile to adopt the “five years post-retirement” condition for eligibility and rushed Babe Ruth into the class of ’36. But we want uniformity and will make him wait.

These 10 all-timers still unite for a pretty stacked collection of talent.

 

1937 Tim Keefe, Eddie Plank

1938 John Clarkson, George Davis

1939 Cap Anson, Roger Connor

1940 Dan Brouthers, Pud Galvin

1941 Jim McCormick, Babe Ruth

Late 19th-century workhorse McCormick is the first Cooperstown outsider to make it in here. He STARTED 74 games for the Cleveland Blues back in 1880! Led the league in ERA+, WHIP and complete games at various times during his career.

 

1942 Sam Crawford, Bill Dahlen

1943 Rogers Hornsby, Charles Radbourn

1944 Frankie Frisch, Harry Heilmann

1945 Lou Gehrig, Bobby Wallace

1946 Ed Delahanty, Amos Rusie

1947 Red Faber, Goose Goslin, Lefty Grove

Induction class size expands post-integration and features Grove—by any measure, one of the best southpaws ever.

 

1948 Stan Coveleski, Charlie Gehringer, Vic Willis

1949 Carl Hubbell, Billy Hamilton, Mickey Welch

1950 Jesse Burkett, Al Simmons, Ed Walsh

1951 Joe Cronin, Jimmie Foxx, Paul Waner

1952 Home Run Baker, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Ted Lyons

Shoeless Joe would’ve been a shoo-in for the HoF if not for the Black Sox Scandal. His early-career contributions for the Cleveland Naps—averaged 8.8 WAR from 1911 to 1913—were most impressive.

 

1953 Jack Glasscock, Mel Ott, Dazzy Vance

1954 Joe McGinnity, Arky Vaughan, Rube Waddell

1955 Eddie Cicotte, Hank Greenberg, Clark Griffith

1956 Luke Appling, Joe Gordon, Jack Powell

1957 Joe DiMaggio, Joe Medwick, Red Ruffing

1958 Lou Boudreau, Mordecai Brown, George Sisler

1959 Willie Keeler, Johnny Mize, Bill Terry

1960 Jimmy Collins, Elmer Flick, Joe Sewell

1961 Tommy Bond, Stan Hack, Hal Newhouser

1962 Bob Feller, Bobo Newsom, Jackie Robinson

1963 Bobby Doerr, Silver King, Dutch Leonard

1964 Larry Doby, Joe Kelley, Pee Wee Reese

1965 Dave Bancroft, Burleigh Grimes, Ralph Kiner

1966 Earl Averill, Heinie Groh, Ted Williams

1967 Johnny Evers, Art Fletcher, Dizzy Trout

1968 Richie Ashburn, Noodles Hahn, Bob Shawkey

1969 John McGraw, Stan Musial, Early Wynn

1970 Frank Chance, Billy Pierce, Duke Snider

1971 King Kelly, Jim O’Rourke, Sam Thompson

1972 Chuck Klein, Al Orth, Herb Pennock

1973 Charlie Keller, Claude PasseauRobin Roberts, Warren Spahn

Induction class size expands again to keep pace with league expansion.

 

1974 Rocky Colavito, Larry Jackson, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews

1975 Ken Boyer, Dizzy Dean, Don Drysdale, Hughie Jennings

1976 Frank Dwyer, George Gore, Paul Hines, Bill Nicholson

An example of how this selection process could be awkward…Three of these four inductees died too soon to attend their ceremony, pushed back decades by their lack of career WAR.

 

1977 Ernie Banks, Jim Bunning, Eddie Stanky, Roy Thomas

1978 Johnny CallisonRoberto Clemente, Camilo Pascual, Hack Wilson

1979 Fred Dunlap, Bob Lemon, Willie MaysPreacher Roe

1980 Dean ChanceAl Kaline, Ron Santo, Deacon White

1981 Bob Gibson, Jim Maloney Juan Marichal, Vada Pinson

1982 Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, John Ward, Billy Williams

1983 Dick Allen, Brooks Robinson, Al RosenChris Short

1984 Larry CorcoranTex Hughson, Frank SullivanWilbur Wood

1985 Dick Radatz

Finally, the backlog of qualified candidates loosens enough so that one player gets the stage to himself.

Not much of a treat for the fans, though. Radatz was dead last among our 233 members with only 16.1 WAR. Excluding his first three seasons in the majors, the right-handed reliever was worse than replacement level!

 

1986 Willie McCovey

1987 none

1988 Luis Tiant

1989 Johnny Bench, Fergie Jenkins, Gaylord Perry, Carl Yastrzemski

1990 Jim Kaat, Jon Matlack, Joe Morgan, Jim Palmer

1991 Rod Carew

1992 Cesar Cedeno, Bobby Grich, Pete Rose, Tom Seaver

1993 Vida Blue, Reggie Jackson, Phil Niekro

1994 Steve Carlton, Ron Guidry

1995 Tommy John, Mike Schmidt

1996 none

1997 Rick Reuschel

1998 Bert Blyleven, Gary Carter

1999 George Brett, Carlton Fisk, Nolan Ryan, Robin Yount

2000 Teddy Higuera, Frank Tanana

2001 none

2002 Andre Dawson, Ozzie Smith, Alan Trammell, Frank Viola

Trammell just fell off the BBWAA ballot after 15 years of middling support, but he would have been granted immortality immediately by these rules.

 

2003 Ryne Sandberg, Fernando Valenzuela

2004 Jimmy Key, Dennis Martinez, Dave Stieb

2005 Wade Boggs, Tom Candiotti, Mark Langston

2006 Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser

2007 Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Brett Saberhagen

2008 Chuck Finley, Chuck Knoblauch, Tim Raines, Jose Rijo

Raines is still waiting his turn in real life, which is absurd. We are running out of patience.

 

2009 David Cone, Rickey Henderson

2010 Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier

2011 Jeff Bagwell, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker

2012 Brad Radke

2013 Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Kenny Lofton, Curt Schilling

Love ’em or hate ’em on a personal level, this kind of mega class if WAY more interesting than The Brad Radke Experience.

 

2014 Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas

2015 Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Kenny Rogers, John Smoltz

2016 Jim Edmonds, Nomar Garciaparra, Ken Griffey Jr., Brandon Webb

 

And looking forward, this is how the next few induction classes would shake out…

 

2017 none

2018 Andruw JonesChipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Carlos Zambrano

2019 Roy HalladayTodd Helton, Roy Oswalt

 

Aggregated from Baseball-Reference.com, this spreadsheet of annual WAR leaders is fun for reflecting on some of the outlier seasons that this crazy sport produces: Year-by-Year bWAR Leaders

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments, or address them directly to me on Twitter @MrElyminator.