This post is for voting and discussion in the 133rd round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This is the first of two rounds of balloting adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1975. Rules and lists are after the jump.
The new group of 1975-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This first group of 1975-born candidates, comprising those with A-J surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.
In addition to voting for COG election among players on the main ballot, there will be also be voting for elevation to the main ballot among players on the secondary ballot. For the main ballot election, voters must select three and only three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast in the round inducted into the Circle of Greats. For the secondary ballot election, voters may select up to three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast elevated to the main ballot for the next COG election round. In the case of ties, a runoff election round will be held for COG election, while a tie-breaking process will be followed to determine the secondary ballot winner.
Players who fail to win either ballot but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. One additional round of eligibility is earned by any player who appears on at least 10% of the ballots cast or, for the main ballot only, any player finishing in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances. Holdover candidates on the main ballot who exhaust their eligibility will drop to the secondary ballot for the next COG election round, as will first time main ballot candidates who attract one or more votes but do not earn additional main ballot eligibility. Secondary ballot candidates who exhaust their eligibility will drop from that ballot, but will become eligible for possible reinstatement in a future Redemption round election.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Sunday, February 9th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Friday, February 7th.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1975 Part 1 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also in the spreadsheet is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1975 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players, for both the main and secondary ballots, from the lists below of eligible players. The current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1975 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
| MAIN BALLOT | ELIGIBILITY | SECONDARY BALLOT | ELIGIBILITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Ramirez | 8 rounds | Willie Randolph | 11 rounds |
| Luis Tiant | 8 rounds | Todd Helton | 9 rounds |
| Dick Allen | 7 rounds | Bobby Abreu | 3 rounds |
| Bill Dahlen | 5 rounds | Stan Coveleski | 3 rounds |
| Bobby Wallace | 3 rounds | Monte Irvin | 3 rounds |
| Andre Dawson | 2 rounds | Minnie Minoso | 3 rounds |
| Ted Lyons | 2 rounds | Ken Boyer | 2 rounds |
| Graig Nettles | 2 rounds | Andy Pettitte | 2 rounds |
| Ted Simmons | 2 rounds | Don Drysdale | this round ONLY |
| Don Sutton | 2 rounds | Gary Sheffield | this round ONLY |
| Richie Ashburn | this round ONLY | Reggie Smith | this round ONLY |
| Rick Reuschel | this round ONLY | Billy Williams | this round ONLY |
Everyday Players (born in 1975, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, A-J surname):
Torii Hunter
Mark DeRosa
Vladimir Guerrero
Luis Castillo
Rod Barajas
Russell Branyan
Alex Cora
J.D. Drew
Carlos Guillen
Ronnie Belliard
Pedro Feliz
David Eckstein
Karim Garcia
Jacque Jones
Pitchers (born in 1975, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, A-J surname):
Livan Hernandez
Tim Hudson
Chris Carpenter
Randy Choate
Francisco Cordero
Doug Davis
Rafael Betancourt
Brian Fuentes
Shawn Camp
Felix Heredia
As is our custom with first time candidates, here is a factoid and related quiz question on each of the new players on the ballot.
- Torii Hunter recorded 9 consecutive qualified seasons aged 30-38 with OPS+ in the narrow range of 110 to 129. Which two players have the second longest streaks of such seasons during that period of their careers? (Sam Rice 1920-26, Raul Ibanez 2002-08)
- Tim Hudson posted a .600 W-L% in six consecutive qualified seasons (2000-05) before age 30. Which pitcher has the only longer streak of such seasons in the live ball era (since 1920)? (Roger Clemens, 1986-92)
- Livan Hernandez in 2004 became the most recent pitcher to post a losing record while leading his league in IP, BF and CG. Who is the last AL pitcher to do this? (Dennis Martinez, 1979)
- Mark DeRosa played over 500 games and compiled over 2000 AB aged 31-34, both marks exceeding his career totals through age 30. Which expansion era player did the same, after debuting before age 25 (like DeRosa) and playing fewer games than DeRosa through age 30? (Mike Easler)
- Vladimir Guerrero in 2002 became the second NL player (after Duke Snider in 1950) to lead his league in H, TB and CS. Which two AL players did the same? (Ty Cobb 1915, Snuffy Stirnweiss 1945)
- Randy Choate’s 14 seasons with fewer than 50 IP are the most for any pitcher. Among pitchers with 10 or more such seasons, who recorded the most career IP? (Jesse Orosco)
- Chris Carpenter posted a 3.07 career ERA in the NL, but a 4.83 mark in the AL, a 1.76 run difference between leagues that is the largest among pitchers with 2000 IP careers including 800 IP in each league. Which pitcher in that group has the biggest ERA difference favoring his AL service? (Barry Zito, 1.04 ER better in AL)
- Luis Castillo’s 1683 games at 2B ranks as the third highest total among players with no games at any other position. Which player leads that list? (Bobby Doerr: 1852 games; or, allowing DH games, Lou Whitaker: 2308 games)
- Francisco Cordero is the only player to pitch 200 games for the Reds and Rangers. Which teammate of Cordero’s also played 200 games for each of those franchises? (Laynce Nix)
- Rod Barajas is the only non-pitcher to compile a 1000 game career and hit only one triple. Which non-pitcher had the longest career without hitting any triples? (Johnny Estrada, 612 games)
- Carlos Guillen recorded a qualified .300/.400/.500 season in 2006. Before Guillen, who was the last shortstop with such a season aged 30 or older? (Lou Boudreau, 1948)
- J.D. Drew ‘s 2004 season is one of only fourteen with 115+ walks, runs and strikeouts. Who was the first player to post such a season? (Mickey Mantle, 1958)
- Alex Cora’s 1273 game career is the shortest among players with 500 games at both 2B and SS. Whose record did Cora break? (Mariano Duncan, 1279 games)
- Russell Branyan is the only player with 1000 strikeouts to post a 50% career TTO. Among players, like Branyan, to play for 10 or more franchises, who compiled the most career strikeouts? (Royce Clayton)
- Doug Davis is one of only three left-handers to pitch in the current century and post career totals including 1500 IP, SO/BB under 1.65 and HR/9 under 1.0? Who are the other two? (Mike Hampton, Shawn Estes)
- Ronnie Belliard stroked 328 doubles in a 5641 PA career, a 5.8% rate that is 5th highest among retired second basemen with 5000 PA careers. Which of those second basemen with a higher career doubles rate was active before the 1992 season? (Nap Lajoie)
- Rafael Betancourt posted five 50+ IP seasons aged 30-37 with 150 ERA+ and ERA under 3.00. Which two relievers posted more such seasons during that period of their careers? (Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan)
- Brian Fuentes’ 115 saves as a Rockie is a franchise record. Which two pitchers hold franchise saves records for more than one franchise? (Jonathan Papelbon: Phillies/Red Sox; Rob Nen: Marlins/Giants)
- Shawn Camp is one of 14 relief pitchers to record 65 IP and 100 ERA+ each season aged 33-36. Which of those pitchers was the first to do this? (Bobby Shantz, 1959-62)
- Pedro Feliz played over 600 games from 2004 to 2007 but totaled only 0.5 oWAR for those four seasons, each of which featured fewer than 150 hits, OPS under 0.800 and an OBP of less than two times ISO. Which other two players have posted four such qualified seasons consecutively? (Jody Davis 1983-86, Rob Deer 1988-91)
- David Eckstein is one of 14 shortstops with 150 games played in a debut season. Which of those players led his league in games played in his debut season? (Topper Rigney, 1922)
- Jacque Jones played 250 games in both LF and RF for the Twins. Which other Twin outfielder did the same? (Bob Allison)
- Felix Heredia is the youngest player to pitch in relief in the 9th inning of a World Series game 7 with a score differential of one run or less. Who is the youngest pitcher to win a sudden death World Series game in relief? (Smoky Joe Wood, 1912)
- Karim Garcia leads all Mexican-born players in career World Series games played. Who is the youngest Mexican-born player to appear in a World Series game? (Fernando Valenzuela, 1981)
Main ballot: Ramirez, Allen, Dahlen
Second ballot: Sheffield, Randolph, Helton
Answer #5 for the Vlad Guerrero question is Ty Cobb (1915)
I missed Cobb, so there were two players who led the AL in H, TB and CS.
Snuffy Stirnweiss (1945)…and let’s not forget Duke Snider in the NL in 1950
Right you are (I really botched that question).
” “(I really botched that question)” ”
Nah….the questions are certainly entertaining and very relevant to each player. The format works well. Keep up the good work and research
Thanks again
#12 is Jimmie Foxx (1936). This was a first guess confirmation (as opposed to #5 of which Cobb was about my fifth guess ()
Sorry, Foxx is not the guy :-(…I was looking for K’s, R Rbi – ADHD 🙁
#12 MIGHT be Mantle (1958)
Not MIGHT, but WAS.
Question 21: Topper Rigney in 1922, 155 games.
Question 10: Johnny Estrada with 612 games.
Question 1: Raul Ibanez and Sam Rice.
Primary: Dalhen, Nettles, Guerrero
Secondary: Helton, Coveleski, Minoso
#15, Doug Davis question:
Tom Glavine & Kenny Rogers. But, I believe they (along with Davis) may be the only LH’s with > 1,500 IP who are at </= 1.65 on K/BB for the period (2000-2019) regardless of HR/9 surrendered?
The criteria was for career totals, not career totals since 2000. So, it’s not Glavine or Rogers.
As to your second point, there is just one LH pitcher meeting the IP and SO/BB criteria, but not the the HR/9 measure.
OK
Mike Hampton; Kirk Reuter ?
Hampton is right, but Rueter was above 1.0 HR/9 at 1.03.
Q2: Is it Bob Feller? He had 7 consecutive seasons of .600+… but they were interrupted by his War seasons. Let me know if I have to look for another (but I do think he should count).
Q14: Matt Stairs, Greg Byrd, and the correct answer, Todd Zeile, all played for 10+ franchises and struck out more than Branyan.
Feller was discharged from the armed services in August 1945 and pitched 72 innings for the Indians afterwards. That interrupted his qualifying season streak.
Look for another. Feller doesn’t meet the criteria, as he had a non-qualifying season in there.
Ed Reulbach?
Live Ball era is one of the criteria.
Whitey Ford!!
Not Whitey. He had just four consecutive qualified seasons (1953-56) before age 30 with .600 W-L% (but 7 straight later in his career, from 1958 to 1964).
So, I’ve now gotten TWO correct choices screwed up by wars (Feller for WWII, Ford by Korea, who surely would’ve had another couple qualified seasons in ’51 and ’52). I thought, “Who could this POSSIBLY be?” I tried some guys. I tried unusual guys, because I thought FOR SURE this would be hard. But as it turns out, it’s Roger Clemens:
Seven straight, 1986-1992, four ERA titles, and a .683 W-L%.
Roger Clemens. I was out-smarting myself, thinking it couldn’t POSSIBLY be someone that obvious. Ugh; well, that’s what I get for not checking the obvious ones first!
After his run of seven straight, Roger went 0 for his next four seasons. Then, magically (thanks to wonders of modern pharmacology?), his old form returned, and he did it 8 of his next 9 seasons (with one more W or one fewer L in ’99, it would have been 9 out of 9).
Of course, from 1993-1996, Clemens had a 130 ERA+. As I’ve shown on this site several times, you can extrapolate a W-L record from an ERA+ and IP. An ERA+ of 130 predicts a .628 W-L%, and 745 IP predicts 83 decisions for an assumed W-L record of 52-31; Clemens’ actual record was 40-39.
For his career, Clemens actually had a .658 W-L%. My formula predicts .671 for Clemens. Changing his record over those four seasons from 40-39 to 52-31 would give Clemens a .675 W-L%. In other words, Clemens, over the rest of his career, was almost PERFECTLY luck-neutral in regard to his run distribution and record; for whatever reason (or combination of reasons), those four seasons were total outliers. WAR still credits him as an excellent pitcher in ’94 and ’96. For what it’s worth, Fangraphs isn’t quite as bullish on Clemens’ ’94 season, but is much more optimistic about his ’93, which ends up in pretty much a wash. I know we’ve re-hashed those Clemens years here many times, but I can’t help but think that we’d all view Clemens’ entire career differently if those last four years in Boston hadn’t also seen (what I view as) a run of bad luck in which the W-L results simply didn’t match the underlying performance. Had that happened, I’m not sure people would’ve ever even viewed Clemens as having “slumped,” which would change the entire narrative of his career. (I mean, I still think PEDs would be keeping him out, but I think there are some who feel that his career was really lost, only to be saved by PEDs, rather than just seeing a natural downslope being delayed by PEDs.)
Interesting perspective on those seasons. The sudden turn in fortunes in ’97 in Toronto, especially the big innings totals, speaks to more than just good luck returning (as does maintaining that form well into his forties).
There’s someone with more whiffs than Zeile.
Royce Clayton?
It is Clayton, an OTO guy with a career MPW of 1.67 (that’s millions of salary dollars per WAR).
Alfredo Griffin, in an era of lower salaries, made 2.19 MPW.
Dante Bichette made 7.50 MPW.
Willie Bloomquist made 10.70 MPW.
I’m sure there are others who are more extreme, but these guys had real careers. Probably tough to find players with a positive WAR who were more costly. If I were smarter and had more time, I’d normalize for era (see below) and we could find out who some of the all-time leaders were.
In today’s game, the average payroll is right around $90M. The average team ends the season with 30 WAR (roughly; I don’t remember what Baseball-Reference uses for Replacement level anymore; I always use .307, AKA 50 wins). Maybe it’s 35; whatever. Anyway, straight division tells you than an average team pays roughly $3M per WAR, so Clayton really seems like a bargain in today’s game!
Daniel Descalso has made $11,160,000 so far with a career WAR of 0.6. Now, that’s a bit unfair, since his 2019 was really atrocious – it contributed -1.4 WAR. So before then, he wasn’t that bad. He’s guaranteed at least another $2.5M next year, has $250K in bonus money that can be earned based on PA’s, and his 2021 option of $3.5M has a $1M buy-out. So if he gets injured next year and doesn’t hit any of those PA cut-offs, then retires after his buy-out, he’d pocket $14,660,000 on that 0.6 WAR.
Ryan Howard made 190M for 15WAR. Prince Fielder $239M for 23.2WAR
Thinking about Tim Hudson for the HoF (he will be on the ballot next year), his combination of 50 WAR, 200 Wins, .600 W-L% and 120 ERA+ puts him in pretty exclusive company. Of such eligible pitchers with 50-70 WAR, all are in the Hall (though Spalding and Griffith made it as executives).
I guess that makes Greinke a lock? Gun to your head: Greinke or Hudson? By the same token, I just never believed I was watching a Hall of Famer when Hudson pitched…..I dunno
Greinke does look good, especially with another effective season or two.
Greinke over Hudson, no question. Greinke’s ’09 and ’15 seasons were quite possibly two of the best 10 seasons this millenium, by any pitcher. Case in point:
Since 2000, only five players have had a 9.0-WAR season:
Randy Johnson (2001 & 2002)
Pedro Martinez (2000)
Aaron Nola (2018)
Jacob deGrom (2018)
Zack Greinke (2009 & 2015)
Since 2000, players with a W-L% of .600 & 200+ W:
CC Sabathia, 251-161
Justin Verlander, 225-129
Tim Hudson, 211-131
Zack Greinke, 205-123
(HM: Roy Halladay, who misses the list because he didn’t quite win 200 in the given timeframe: 194-98)
2000-2019, seasons with ERA+ of 200+:
Pedro Martinez (2000, 2002, 2003)
Roger Clemens (2005)
Zack Greinke (2009, 2015)
Jake Arrieta (2015)
Corey Kluber (2017)
Jacob deGrom (2018)
Blake Snell (2018)
Players with 4+ seasons of 200K since 2000:
9 – Justin Verlander
8 – Max Scherzer
7 – Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale
6 – Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez
5 – Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Randy Johnson, Corey Kluber, Pedro Martinez, David Price, Johan Santana, Javier Vazquez
Greinke, as I see it, is just waiting for retirement and the waiting period. He’s in the top-5 pitchers of this millenium pretty much any way you slice it. I don’t really think anyone would say the same about Tim Hudson. Individual seasons, career totals, overall accomplishments… it’s all coming up Greinke.
Also, Greinke set a (modern) record that will likely never be broken: Greinke once started three consecutive games when he was in Milwaukee. It was a bizarre set of circumstances involving an ejection and the All-Star Break (2012 season). I suppose a team using an “opener” might one day do something similar, but they were, at least in theory, actual starting pitcher performances. (In the first of the games, on July 7, Greinke was ejected before recording an out; he made up for it by starting the next day, then had his regular 4 days rest during the All-Star Break. Greinke was 0-1 with 8.0 IP over the three games, but the TEAM went 2-1, so who’s going to complain? Greinke started only one more game as a Brewer, before being traded to the Angels.)
Whoops; that last group is players with 5+ seasons of 200K. I didn’t include the guys with 4. There were a few, though. Mostly very good pitchers, overall. I destroyed my spreadsheet, though (which is what we with no P-I subscription need to use for such things), and I don’t want to re-create it. Just wanted to make clear that there ARE more players with 4+ seasons; I just didn’t list them.
Question 7: Barry Zito had a 3.58 ERA in the AL and 4.62 in the NL, a differential of 1.04.
Zito is the one. Evidently he preferred the warmer climes of the East Bay.
Question 8: Appears to be Bobby Doerr (1,865 games), with the #2 man being Laughing Larry Doyle.
That’s it. If you don’t consider DH to be a position, then Lou Whitaker would be the one with 2308 games.
15. Is the other one Jim Abbott?
Not Abbott. Here’s a hint: he was a teammate of Rueter’s with the Giants.
Shawn Estes?
Bingo. Rueter and Estes were mainstays in the Giant rotation from 1997 to 2001. During those 5 seasons, the Giants had the grand total of 3 games started by pitchers posting a 2.50 SO/BB ratio for the season (all of them were relievers making a spot start).
18. Was looking up somebody I thought was an answer (Billy Wagner), and stumbled onto one of the correct ones – Papelbon, who leads for both the Red Sox and Phillies.
Main Ballot:
Manny, Hudson, Vlad
Secondary Ballot:
Randolph, Sheffield, Minoso
Primary: Ramirez, Simmons, Guerrero
Secondary: Abreu, Coveleski, Sheffield
So, the newcomers – we can all agree Vlad is at least in the CoG discussion, right? I think he has a tough case to prove that he’s the superior of MannyBManny, Sheffield, Ashburn, Allen, etc. – but he is worthy of arguing about.
Now what about Hudson? I think he has a good argument for the Hall – but does he belong in the mix with Tiant, Reuschle, Sutton and Lyons? By similarity scores, he’s most similar to – paging Dr. Doom – Kevin Brown. JAWS has him at 83rd – one above Orel Hershiser, one below Bucky Walters. (81st, btw, is Johan Santana) His pure pitching bWAR is a bit more competitive – 56.8 has him in 76th place, right above Dave Stieb and right below Jerry Koosman and Frank Tanana. Taking all that together, unless there’s something major that the numbers aren’t catching, I think we can safely say no on Hudson. Very good pitcher, but doesn’t quite meet the standards of our tangle of guys currently on the ballot.
Agreed on CoG chances for Hudson. CoG pitchers at his WAR level (e.g. Ferrell, Koufax, M. Brown) seem to need an outstanding peak to be seen as CoG-worthy. Perhaps the most similar pitcher to Hudson who is in the CoG is Whitey Ford; both had similar WAR from long careers without a huge peak, but Ford has the black and gray ink that Hudson lacks, and was generally regarded as his league’s top pitcher for a large part of his career, status that Hudson never attained. Given the comparables you mentioned, seems that Hudson’s HoF argument is a bit doubtful too, at least via the BBWAA.
Hall of Stats likes him, though, with a 108 rating (it also has K. Brown, Hershiser, Santana and Stieb comfortably in, with Koosman and Tanana just barely missing at 99.5 and 99.9).
Q4. Raul Ibanez, if I’m understanding the syntax of the question correctly.
Not Ibanez. He played 472 games through his age 30 season, 13 more than DeRosa for the same period.
I came up with Mike Easler, 339 games.
That’s who I got, too. Easler’s career was especially unusual because he was something of a PH specialist when he was young, but not at the end of his career (the opposite would be a more common career pattern). Thus, 107 of his first 339 games (31.6%) were as a pinch-hitter, but only 82 of his final 812 games (10.1%) were in that role.
Shoot, I was looking BEFORE age 30, not THROUGH age 30. Ibanez seemed like the right “type” of player. He was the first I thought of, the first I checked, and here I thought I was so smart!
Question 3: Dennis Martinez in 1979.
Martinez is correct. He followed up his AL-leading season in CG in 1979 by leading the NL in CG in 1991. The 12 year gap is the longest for any pitcher between league-leading seasons in CG, and second only to Warren Spahn’s 14 season span (1949 to 1963) between the first and last seasons leading in CG.
Martinez’s last complete game, at age 44 in 1998, featured 12 hits allowed but only 106 pitches. It is only the fourth 12 hit shutout in the expansion era, and the first since at least 1908 by a pitcher aged 40 or older.
Main ballot vote:
Richie Ashburn
Ted Lyons
Manny Ramirez
________________
Lyons joined the Marines at age 41 after a 4.8 WAR season.
Richard Ashburn had durability, speed, CF defense, hit for average. Had everything but power. If I’m building a team I want a Richie Ashburn.
Manny averaged 45 Rbat over a 12-year peak. I’ll overlook the steroids and the crappy baserunning/fielding. He was Great at something.
Secondary ballot vote:
Bobby Abreu
Stan Coveleski
Willie Randolph
Question 13: Alex Cora broke the record held by Mariano Duncan, 1279 games.
For the 1975 Part 4 election, I’m voting for:
-Manny Ramirez
-Don Sutton
-Andre Dawson
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Guerrero
-Reuschel
-Tiant
-Ashburn
-Nettles
-Allen
-Wallace
-Dahlen
-Lyons
Thanks!
For the Secondary Ballot, I’m voting for:
-Todd Helton
-Willie Randolph
-Bobby Abreu
Thanks!
Q18. I could only figure out one – Jonathan Papelbon (Boston & Philadelphia)
I posted that one above, so I may as well post the other. I did need help, but I started by going through ones I knew in my head – or thought I did. In my head, I thought Mike Henneman would be the leader for the Tigers (it’s actually Todd Jones). But I eventually knew it had to be the leader for the Marlins or Pirates – and amazingly, the leader for the Pirates is still good old Elroy Face! The Marlins leader, with 108, is Robb Nen – who also leads the Giants with 206.
Another of my initial guesses was Roberto Hernandez (the original, not Fausto) – he does lead the Rays, but Thigpen and Jenks are ahead of him on the White Sox leaderboard.
6. This is another one that shouldn’t have taken so long, because it’s exactly who you think it is – it’s Jesse Orosco.
Only question with Orosco was whether he had enough seasons under 50 IP. He does, thanks to his final 5 seasons in which he averaged fewer than two BF per appearance.
Orosco is also the first pitcher to lead his league in appearances in a season (the shorter 1995 campaign) with less than 50 IP. Only Randy Choate (twice) and Buddy Groom have done so since.
Main: Allen, Dahlen, Simmons
2nd Ballot: Coveleski, Sheffield, Williams
Main ballot: Dahlen, Sutton & Lyons
Secondary ballot: Minoso, Ken Boyer & Andy Pettitte.
#22 Bob Allison ?
Allison is one of three players to play his entire career for one franchise and record 500 games in LF and RF. Stan Musial is another. Can you name the third?
Temple University and Frankford HS’s own, Bobby Higginson. I literally scrolled down the b-ref “Leaders” tab for career games played and came to # 930 and saw Higginson. He wasn’t my first stop on the way down the list but he is in pretty good company there with Musial and Allison.
THAT trivia question will definitely buy some drinks in a corner bar
I thought I immediately had it with Bob Meusel, but he apparently ended his career with one season in Cincinnati.
Meusel was my first guess as well since he was supposed to have a RF’er’s fantastic arm and played a good bit in LF because Ruth was in RF with his great arm already
Ruth was really a LF but he refused to play at ball parks in which LF was the sun field. Those parks were Yankee Stadium, Griffith Stadium and Cleveland’s League Park and Ruth played RF in those parks.
Richard
Thanks for the info…. Kind of makes sense since his career games in LF vs RF are almost even
Meusel and Ruth bucked the Yankee tendency to keep their franchise outfielders in one position. Of 12 outfielders who played for one franchise and recorded 1500 games at one outfield position, there are 4 Yankees, 3 Red Sox and a single player for 5 other franchises.
Doug,
The Saux and NYY were easy enough couldn’t guess the 5th of the other franchises guys: Kaline, Clemente, Ott, Gwynn, and ?
17. I mean, one of these *has* to be Mariano RIvera, right? And If I understand the question, it looks like the second guy is Joe Nathan.
Those two had six 50 IP seasons aged 30-37 with ERA under 3.00 and 150 ERA+, one more than a group with 5 seasons that includes Betancourt and Doug Jones.
Question 11: Lou Boudreau in 1948
If you’re wondering about Cal Ripken, his best OBP of .374 came in his age 30 season in which he also posted qualified career bests in HR, RBI, XBH, TB, BA, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and WAR.
Primary: Ashburn, Dahlen, Guerrero
Secondary: Minoso, Boyer, Helton
23. Is it Smokey Joe Wood?
CC
My first guess was the hero of 1909 WS Babe Adams but he was pitching nothing but complete games – 3 of them. My point in all this is check out the unearned run totals in the summary of the 1909 WS:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1909_WS.shtml
Maybe we shouldn’t pick on Allen, Manny, and Sheffield for their iron gloves?
Most of the shoddy defense came in game 3, an 8-6 Pirate win in which only 3 of the 14 runs were earned, after 5 Tiger errors and two by the Pirates.
It is Wood. He was just shy of his 23rd birthday when he pitched the last 3 innings of Boston’s 3-2 win over the Giants in game 8 of the 1912 World Series (game 8 was a sudden death game, because of a tie in game 2). Wood seemed destined to take the loss after allowing a 10th inning RBI single by Fred Merkle, but the Red Sox rallied with a pair in the bottom of the frame to change that decision to a win. It was sweet redemption for Wood who was shelled as the game 7 starter (6 ER in one inning of work) as the Giants tied up the series.
Main: Lyons, Simmons, Allen
Secondary: Williams, Minoso, Sheffield
Main: Ramirez, Nettles, Dahlen
Secondary: Sheffield, Coveleski, Irvin
With my vote, I’ll also give the current totals (with 11 ballots in, counting my own):
Main:
6 – Manny B Manny (no stranger to run-offs – can we finally break out of the pack?)
—50% cut-off—
5 – Bad Bill Dahlen, Big Bad Vladdy Daddy
3 – Allen, Lyons, Simba
—25% cut-off—
2 – Nettles, Ashburn, Sutton
—10% cut-off—
1 – Hudson, Dawson
0 – Reuschel, Tiant, Wallace (those second two have eligibility to spare, but Big Daddy is headed for the secondary ballot if things don’t turn around)
Secondary:
6 – Sheffield (our voters this ballot are big on hitters – Sheff and ManRam are two of the worst defenders ever, but boy could they mash)
—50% cut-off—
5 – Minoso, Coveleski
4 – Randolph, Helton
3 – Abreu
–25% cut-off—
2 – Williams, Boyer
—10% cut-off—
1 – Irvin, Pettitte
0 – Smith, Drysdale (both in danger of falling off the ballot)
At this point, I had four for Guerrero (Andy, Chris C, JEV, and Gary Bateman) and six for Dahlen (Jeff Harris, Andy, Paul E, Bruce Gilbert, Gary Bateman, and CursedClevelander). I think I have that right. If I’m wrong on something, let me know. Otherwise, our totals match.
You’re right – I didn’t catch Andy’s vote for Dahlen because of a misspelling. So my vote update below is wrong. I will post a new one.
Main: Manny, Dahlen, Wallace
Secondary: Sheffield, Smith, Drysdale
Primary: Manny Ramirez, Dick Allen, Luis Tiant
Secondary: Reggie Smith, Billy Williams, Bobby Abreu
24. I mean, it took a while for anyone to make a guess, but this is just Fernando Valenzuela, right? He was just shy of his 21st birthday in the 1981 WS – I can’t find anybody else close to that. Julio Urias would have beaten him if the Dodgers won the 2016 pennant. He ws over 22 by the time he finally did make it in 2018.
Valenzuela remains the second youngest player to start a World Series game, 40 days older than Bullet Joe Bush in 1913. Fernando is tied in second spot with Jim Palmer, both 9 days shy of their 21st birthdays, and 13 days younger than Johnny Podres in 1953.
Bush, Valenzuela and Palmer were all CG winners, with Palmer twirling a shutout. Fernando’s CG was not one you will see anymore: a 9 hit, 7 walk, 147 pitch marathon backing a 5-4 Dodger win.
For the unsolved ones, I looked up #9. I’ll be amazed if anyone gets it without using the P-I or just manual searching. I’ll give a hint – his brother also played in the MLB, and they both have an unnecessary Y in their first names.
I haven’t worked out 16, 19 or 20 yet because they’re pretty complex.
For number 16 I got Nap Lajoie. I have answers for numbers 19 and 20 but I’ll leave them for others to solve.
Yup – he has the highest rate of any second baseman with over 5,000 career PA’s. Robinson Cano appears to be the only other one above 6%. The others that qualified per the question were Jeff Kent, Dustin Pedroia, and Brian Roberts.
Between Lajoie and Jeff Kent are Hornsby, Gehringer and Billy Herman, all with a 5.5% career doubles rate. Between Herman and Kent, only Johnny Ray had a 5% doubles rate.
If I were to just guess #20 off the top of my head it would have to be Ken Reitz….he hit like a GG SS . Just no punch…no walks…. not even any batting average
And, he played everyday for a good while
Good guess, but wrong.
Reitz had just over 150 hits in many of his qualified seasons, and his ISO was so puny that even sub-.300 OBP was better than twice his ISO.
19. At first I thought this was Kent Tekulve, especially since one of those seasons was exactlty 65 IP, but it looks like Grant Jackson might have beat him to it? Also of note, one of those 14 reflief pitchers – Francisco Cordero from this same ballot.
There was someone earlier than Jackson.
Ah, I see now who I had missed. It’s Clay Carroll, then.
There’s one (only one) earlier than Carroll.
For #20, there are a lot of these seasons. And guys like Kingman, Gaetti, and Brunansky racked up tons. But it looks like the only two to match Feliz with four consecutive seasons are Rob Deer (who should have been an easy guess) and Jody Davis (who is a slightly harder one to determine without just hard searching).
Good sleuthing. The last season in Deer’s four-peat was the first qualified season with BA under .200 and ISO over .200; there have been three more such seasons since.
Davis (8.4 oWAR) and Deer (5.5 oWAR) both fared much better than Feliz (0.5 oWAR) for these seasons.
Main Ballot:
Don Sutton
Dick Allen
Graig Nettles
I’m not really sure on any of these guys, other than Sutton, whom I think is clearly the best player left on the ballot. This is an insanely busy week for me, else I would’ve written one of my long soliloquies on why Sutton deserves to be in. Perhaps I’ll get the chance in the next round, if life settles down a bit. Allen and Nettles… man, both of those guys have huge drawbacks… but it’s getting harder and harder to find guys who don’t at this point. So, what the heck: this time, I’m going with them. Could just as easily be Richie Ashburn or Rick Reuschel or Andre Dawson or… someone else, even. They’re all so close, not only to the margins of the COG, but to one another – it gets really hard to separate them. There are still three REALLY big names coming in the next two rounds, so that might make for a little easier time. But this is a tough one for me.
Secondary Ballot:
Don Drysdale
Todd Helton
Gary Sheffield
The secondary ballot was easier. I think Sheff is tremendously underrated; I think Helton gets unfairly docked for Coors; and I happen to think that Drysdale is a (lower-tier) COG player, not just deserving of the ballot. The only trouble I had was with one decision.I’m very upset that I don’t have room for Ken Boyer, is, in my mind, basically even with Helton and Sheffield. Fangraphs really hates Boyer, and I give that even weight to baseball-reference in the “objective” part of my analysis. Subjectively, though… wow. I just have a hard time leaving him out.
It’s weird that both of my ballots are headed up by Dodgers named Don, but I think they’ve both been getting an unfair shake so far.
On #19, I will guess Bobby Shantz, although he started a few games during that time.
I think this is it – my problem was using too high of a cut-off for “reliever” (I used 90% of games). Drop that to 80%, and Shantz shows up, well before Carroll and Jackson.
Ballot Update Through Dr. Doom’s Ballot (14 ballots cast)
Main:
8 – Manny B Manny
—50% cut-off—
6 – Dahlen
5 – Vladdy, Allen
—25% cut-off—
3 – Lyons, Simba, Nettles, Sutton
2 – Ashburn
—10% cut-off—
1 – Hudson, Dawson, Wallace, Tiant (Huddy needs one more vote to avoid dropping to the Secondary)
0 – Reuschel (looking very likely to fall to the Secondary ballot)
Secondary:
8 – Sheffield
—50% cut-off—
5 – Minoso, Coveleski, Helton
4 – Randolph, Abreu
—25% cut-off—
3 – Williams
2 – Boyer, Smith, Drysdale
—10% cut-off—
1 – Irvin, Pettitte (No one on the secondary is currently in danger of falling off)
CORRECT Ballot Update Through Dr. Doom’s Ballot (14 ballots cast) (Thanks to Dr. Doom for double-checking my tallies)
Main:
8 – Manny B Manny
7 – Dahlen
—50% cut-off—
5 – Allen
4 – Vladdy
—25% cut-off—
3 – Lyons, Simba, Nettles, Sutton
2 – Ashburn
—10% cut-off—
1 – Hudson, Dawson, Wallace, Tiant (Huddy needs one more vote to avoid dropping to the Secondary)
0 – Reuschel (looking very likely to fall to the Secondary ballot)
Secondary:
8 – Sheffield
—50% cut-off—
5 – Minoso, Coveleski, Helton
4 – Randolph, Abreu
—25% cut-off—
3 – Williams
2 – Boyer, Smith, Drysdale
—10% cut-off—
1 – Irvin, Pettitte (No one on the secondary is currently in danger of falling off)
Trying to figure out how Reuschel amassed almost 70 WAR. Lots of innings, good control, kept the ball in the yard (in Wrigley). But, pitched to contact, so his WHIP is ordinary, save for a couple of seasons. ERA+ of 114 is good, but not great. Splits against winning and losing clubs are fairly typical (he did better against weaker clubs). Must have received a lot of credit in WAR calculations for pitching in front of some very bad defensive clubs in Chicago.
For 1972-80, the Cubs were a .510 club in games started by Reuschel, but only .460 in the rest of their games. That’s a fairly sizable difference, but perhaps not too surprising given how barren the Cub rotation was for most of those seasons (especially in the later years).
Still, 68 WAR is nothing to sneeze at. But, would like him better if it made more sense to me.
Doug
I don’t know if anyone pays attention to the website but, the Baseball Gauge has Reuschel at a less head-scratching 56.4 WAR:
https://www.thebaseballgauge.com/player.php?playerID=reuscri01
This site doesn’t hammer mediocre fielders either, apparently, or just gives less weight to fielding prowess for the everyday eight guys
(First, for anyone who follows the link will have to change the upper righthand corner dropdown to “gWAR” if you’d like to see what Paul is talking about.)
With regard to fielding, it’s mostly that it uses DRA, developed by Michael Humphreys. It’s a little different than the other fielding systems in that it uses only “traditional” fielding data (much like TotalZone used to for Baseball-Reference, or like Win Shares did for Bill James (of course, Win Shares fielding has a HUGE problem, but that’s for a different discussion). Gary Sheffield is the player who benefits most – 60.5 WAR via Baseball-Reference, 68 via Baseball Gauge. But that’s with the Baseball Gauge hitting component, rather than the Baseball-Reference one. You can actually go into the upper righthand corner dropdown and, instead of selection gWAR, you can select “custom.” You can then select all Baseball-Reference stuff, except for defense, which you can set to Baseball Gauge. Then you’ll see Sheff at 70.5 WAR. (Manny, by comparison, improves by only 3.8 WAR by changing the defensive metric.)
Re: Reuschel: FWIW, while B-R credits Reuschel with 68.1 WAR; Fangraphs credits him with 68.2. Good luck finding another pitcher that close between those two systems. I’ve laid out a very simple system before for using ERA+ and innings pitched to calculate WAR quickly and easily. This method credits him with 63.6 WAR. That’s a little closer to Baseball-Reference/Fangraphs than to Baseball Gauge. If one were to take that 63.6 number as gospel, that probably puts him in the consideration-zone, but probably still doesn’t get him in. As I said in my post, though, a lot of these guys are REALLY close, and it’s seeming harder and harder to separate them from one another.
9. So, as the deadline approaches, I’ll round out the trivia slate by giving this answer – LaYnce Nix, who like his brother, JaYson Nix, has an extra Y in his name. I remember Jayson’s not very memorable stint on the Indians in 2010. (Actually, that team was so bad, I thought he deserved more playing time) I remember very little about his brother. Maybe Doom remembers his dreadful back to back cameo seasons with the Brewers (2007 and 2008) where he went 1 for 24?
CC,
All i remember about either of them was LaYnce’s uniform was always one size too small
I do remember Laynce Nix. He did, however, go 0-4 in a VERY memorable series: Milwaukee’s winning their final 2 games against San Diego that prevented the Padres from possessing the NL’s best record. It forced the one-game playoff with the Rockies on Colorado’s memorable run to the World Series. It also featured the game (#161) in which Tony Gwynn, Jr. scored the winning run in the 11th inning to defeat Dad’s old team and eliminate San Diego from the division race. 2007 was a crazy season in Milwaukee. The team had started 24-10. At the All-Star break, JJ Hardy had 24 HR, leading the NL. In fact, at the All-Star break, they were STILL ten games over .500. That team actually led the Central for 138 days, which was the team record until 2014 (that team started 71-55 and finished on an 11-25 skid that ruined their season, but led for 159 days and is a whole OTHER story; the ’11 Brewers, a 96-win team, led for 100 days, and the pennant-winning ’82 team led for 89 days).
Jayson has one of the more bizarre transactions logs that you’ll see, including being purchased twice by the Phillies, but playing only 18 games for them; and being signed by the Rays as a FA twice in four months, and never playing for them.
His final team was the 2014 Royals for whom he struck out 6 times in 9 hitless PA, and was rewarded by making their post-season roster(?). He then struck out twice more in 3 hitless post-season PA, including two WS appearances and an 11th inning strikeout in the ALWC with the winning run on third.
I’m going to go with Reuschel on the strength of his WAR, especially with agreement from FanGraphs and Dr.Doom!
What I noticed is that Reuschel and Sutton have identical BR WAR, but FanGraphs gives Sutton a whopping 85.5 WAR! But, on a WAR per IP basis, it’s not really that close with Reuschel at 1.92 per 100 IP, and Sutton at 1.29, 1.62 or 1.46, using, respectively, BR, FG or their average. BR has 21 retired pitchers with 65 WAR since 1901 and 1.9 WAR per 100 IP. All are in the CoG except Reuschel and Coveleski. Obviously Reuschel is near the bottom of that list, but we’re talking only 21 pitchers, certainly within CoG range.
Main: Reuschel, Wallace, Ramirez
Secondary: Coveleski, Drysdale, Williams
Not disputing your choice, but when you look at Reushel’s traditional/semi traditional stats, with the exception of his stinginess in giving up the long ball, they don’t jump out at you as “HOF”. Three seasons in the top ten in ERA, two in WHIP, and not once did he ever lead the league in any of the “triple crown” categories. His Black Ink and Grey Ink are way below average for a HOF. It’s just WAR. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t very good (and he had a few standout years) but WAR is the rationale. Got bounced the first time he was on the HOF ballot with .4% of the vote. None of the seven “most similar” pitchers are in the HOF (all good, not great) and #8 and #9 are Catfish (a controversial selection) and Jim Bunning (Vet Committee and less than 60 WAR).
You are right, of course, that it’s only about WAR. And, like most of us (I think), I struggle with understanding exactly how he did it. But, the consistency between BR and FG (and with Doom’s heuristic method), and the high WAR rate make me think he at least merits another look. Perhaps, he can attract another vote to stay on the ballot.
Incidentally, there are three active pitchers (Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw) who meet the 65 WAR/1.9 WAR per 100 IP threshold, and two more (Scherzer, Hamels) who may get there in 2 or 3 years. Hamels is another Rueschel; nothing flashy but he’s consistent and you can pencil him in for 3 or 4 WAR every year, or 5 or 6 WAR in his best seasons. You kind of want your HoFers and CoGers to be remembered for being the best (or in the conversation) at some point in their careers (at least Hamels shone above all others in the 2008 post-season). But, it’s certainly also important to provide consistent, meaningful value over a long career, in the manner of a Reuschel or Hamels.
Primary: Manny Ramirez, Ted Simmons, Bill Dahlen
Secondary: Ken Boyer, Todd Helton, Minnie Minoso
Oh shoot! I almost missed the CoG round, and definitely missed the redemption round! Well, I hastily updated my spreadsheet that’s laid dormant for the past year, and here is my token vote for this round:
Main Ballot – Dahlen, Allen, Reuschel
Secondary – Drysdale, Coveleski, Minoso
Well Bells, you did make the deadline. Here’s the final tally as I have it. I await Dr. Doom’s double-check, as he is the PriceWaterhouseCoopers of HHS.
Final Results (17 ballots)
Main:
10 – Manny B Manny
9 – Dahlen
—50% cut-off—
6 – Allen
—25% cut-off—
4 – Vladdy, Simba
3 – Lyons, Nettles, Sutton
2 – Ashburn, Reuschel, Wallace
—10% cut-off—
1 – Hudson, Dawson, Tiant
Elected to CoG: Manny
Falls to Secondary: Hudson
Losing eligibility rounds: Dawson (who is down to his last), Tiant (who has 7 left)
Gaining eligibility rounds: Dahlen (+4), Allen (+2), Vlad, Simmons, Lyons, Nettles, Sutton, Ashburn, Reuschel, Wallace (+1)
Secondary:
—50% cut-off—
8 – Sheffield
7 – Minoso, Coveleski
6 – Helton
—25% cut-off—
4 – Randolph, Abreu, Drysdale, Williams
3 – Boyer
2 – Smith
—10% cut-off—
1 – Irvin, Pettitte
Elevated to main ballot: Sheffield
Failling off: Nobody
Losing eligibility rounds: Irvin (has 2 remaining), Pettitte (has only one remaining)
Gaining eligibility rounds: Minoso, Coveleski, Helton (+2), Randolph, Abreu, Drysdale, Williams, Boyer, Smith (+1)
FWIW, my count matches yours!